Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

[Intrepid_Timer]

Intrepid,

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^gspc+^dwcpf+efa+agg+DX-Y.NYB+FAS+FAZ+DZK+DPK+TNA+TZA+UAPIX+UCPIX+UNPIX+UXPIX+RYRUX+RYIUX+&d=t

I saw this link of TSP funds, ETFs, and Mutual Funds that you have on your spreadsheets. Are these the only ETFs and Funds that you will be using when your system becomes a pay system? Are the symbols real-time when the markets open? TIA.

These won't necessarily be the only ones I personally use, and I may or may not be using any of these at one particular time or another. These are just examples of some that you could use. If you have Vanguard or Fidelity or whatever, you may want to use their funds. As long as they track the general market, like the S&P 500 or Russell 2000, you'll be fine. Everyone has their own different scenario. For the past couple of months, when I've gotten a sell signal, it's been better to invest in international inverse (or short) funds than the US short funds. Most likely to quantitative easing 2 (QE2) or some other force keeping the US markets up.

If you compare all the examples I have listed on one chart for 1 year or more, you will see they all tend to follow each other over an extended period. However, one may perform better than the other over shorter periods of time. This is why having options is good and also why you can't expect one month to be indicative of a whole year. Switching from one fund to another or one sector to another to maximize gains is possible, but extremely difficult. This is a mistake I made when I went into the I fund, one I won't repeat any time soon. (The I fund has been underperforming on the long side for awhile now, but when you go to short it, it performs better than the US indexes so it all evens out) I'd suggest sticking to one or several over an extended period since we will be trading them, not investing in them.

The charts aren't real time, I think they lag like 10-15 minutes, but if you look underneath the funds name, you see another quote that is more real time. It'll also give you a pre-market quote before the market opens.

Hope this helps. Any other questions, just ask.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Ok .. after you said to stand by about 11:30, I kept checking your Intrepid Trader's Investment Strategies... page for an update. Guess that's not where you'll be posting all signals and updates?

This is where I'll be posting signals and updates, but as Tom said, we are still trying to figure out the best way to go about it. My signals come on an intraday basis as opposed to an end of day basis like most of the other services so I'm able to get up to the minute information. A lot of indicators can change over night or at the beginning of the next day. Regardless of rather we decide to send out an email alert or not, any changes or updates, rather it's an actual IFT or not, will be posted in red on that days commentary.

I think we are leaning towards sending out an email alert even when there is no change. Most days I know for sure when I post my morning commentary rather or not I'll be getting a signal change, but some days it's a bit close to going either way. I get my signals around 11am ET and I try to give a heads up earlier in the morning so that people will know to try to get to a computer between 11:30-12:00 ET in order to see if a signal is comfirmed and if so, go to tsp.gove and make an IFT.

I know it's a hassle not to know until between 11-11:30am, but this gives my system the most up to date information in order to make the best possible decision on which way to go. History shows it's worth it in the end...........

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Hmmmm, wonder what just caused the sudden slip in the markets...........

 

[JTH]

Hmmmm, wonder what just caused the sudden slip in the markets...........

Good question, I think the computers aren't happy with the overall inability to pierce through the previous top? I did hear on CNBC (so it must be true) that 70% of all volume is from High Freq Trading...Doesn't that just give you a nice warm fuzzy?

 

[Gumby]

Hmmmm, wonder what just caused the sudden slip in the markets...........

Market dropped like a bomb for just a few minutes.... BIG MONEY manipulation? Run the market up all morning, then short everything for 5 minutes and then cover? POMO induced? :nuts:

 

[WorkFE]

That's been going on some time now. The pump and dump in the big 2 in retail has been unreal for over a year now.

 

[JTH]

Half of German Bankers Expect Euro Default, Ernst & Young Says

 

[FAB1]

What about that darn I fund? Doesnt it know its supposed to go down with the market.

 

[Dutchy]

Half of German Bankers Expect Euro Default, Ernst & Young Says

As previous posts said, Pump and dump... Flash trading.. Euro worries. I-T I believe in you but how you ever developed a trading system with these variables ?? Wow.

 

[Gumby]

Good question, I think the computers aren't happy with the overall inability to pierce through the previous top? I did hear on CNBC (so it must be true) that 70% of all volume is from High Freq Trading...Doesn't that just give you a nice warm fuzzy?

Read a story on Zerohedge.... Claimed $6 Bil of ES (mini S&P500)hit the tape over a 6 minute period. Sounds like a whale unloading to me.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Yes, the day traders can make things interesting. They don't hold positions overnight so ultimately, the trend should stay intact. Just have to be patient and not watch every minute of every day..................

 

[fedgolfer]

Read a story on Zerohedge

In my experience, taking anything literally from ZH can be dangerous. Be careful about sites that post financail articles w/o identified sources. If I were a market maker, I'd feed these crackpot sites info to get the herd leaning the wrong way... ZH is very effective in that, imho.

 

[JTH]

In my experience, taking anything literally from ZH can be dangerous. Be careful about sites that post financail articles w/o identified sources. If I were a market maker, I'd feed these crackpot sites info to get the herd leaning the wrong way... ZH is very effective in that, imho.

I just don't even care about the internet bloggers anymore, they are so narrow-minded in their views. I'm better off not knowing what they think. I do read the blogs here, but at least within TSP I know who I'm dealing with and how their expectations differ from mine.

 

[fedgolfer]

I just don't even care about the internet bloggers anymore, they are so narrow-minded in their views. I'm better off not knowing what they think. I do read the blogs here, but at least within TSP I know who I'm dealing with and how their expectations differ from mine.

Yeah, you really see how doubt & fear lead to emotional trading after reading those articles from ZH. But, one of the best things about those sites are that they create the counter party for which the market feeds off of. Just hate to see TSP'ers fall into that counter-party crowd.

 

[Birchtree]

I think Carl Denninger is in the same camp - I stay miles away.

 

[fedgolfer]

I think Carl Denninger is in the same camp - I stay miles away.

Is it evil to say I like these clowns for creating fear?

 

[JTH]

Is it evil to say I like these clowns for creating fear?

There was a time when I wasn't mature enough to seperate fear from fact. I lost 75% shorting the financials off the march bottom, it was a lesson learned well...

 

[Birchtree]

I knew that but I wasn't going to say anything. It wasn't my place. I'll take your name off the list.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I wonder how much of the dump today was the wall street crowd selling in case they couldn't get to work tomorrow because of the snow.........

 

[crws]

Half of German Bankers Expect Euro Default, Ernst & Young Says

Major Bond Auctions in the UK...