Interfund Transfer 8/15 for 8/16/07

[tsptalk]

100% F

This market is not behaving very well. I will use today's early gains (hopefully they hold) to step aside again. The triple bottom was taken out on the S&P and it may be better to be safe than sorry for now. I'm making an interfund transfer to 100% F fund this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

I have been screwed the last three transfers I have made where I acted based on the morning action only to see the market completely reverse in the afternoon. God forbid I can actually get out on an up day, or in on a down day. We have now seen two 90 point gains disappear today and as of this writing with an hour to go, the Dow is now down 40+ points.

I'm sure the TSP folks are laughing at us trying to time this thing. Once again I can't help but wonder who might be taking advantage of this by buying or selling in front of our close of business transactions.

15,000 people get our email alerts. If 1 out of 4 people make the same or similar change we are talking almost 4000 transfers. If they average a $50,000 to $100,000 balance (could be higher or lower - not sure) then, if my math is correct, we're talking maybe $200,000,000 to $400,000,000 being bought or sold at the close. Is that enough to move the market? Maybe - maybe not. If it is, someone has this info and it sure looks like they are acting on it.

The question is, are we smart enough to take advantage of it on our own with some intraday ETF transactions or OEX / SPX options?

 

[poolman]

I have been screwed the last three transfers I have made where I acted based on the morning action only to see the market completely reverse in the afternoon. God forbid I can actually get out on an up day, or in on a down day. We have now seen two 90 point gains disappear today and as of this writing with an hour to go, the Dow is now down 40+ points.

I'm sure the TSP folks are laughing at us trying to time this thing. Once again I can't help but wonder who might be taking advantage of this by buying or selling in front of our close of business transactions.

15,000 people get our email alerts. If 1 out of 4 people make the same or similar change we are talking almost 4000 transfers. If they average a $50,000 to $100,000 balance (could be higher or lower - not sure) then, if my math is correct, we're talking maybe $200,000,000 to $400,000,000 being bought or sold at the close. Is that enough to move the market? Maybe - maybe not. If it is, someone has this info and it sure looks like they are acting on it.

The question is, are we smart enough to take advantage of it on our own with some intraday ETF transactions or OEX / SPX options?

Obviously it would be totally illegal for the diclosure of this information, although it does make you wonder. Many a CEO has been brought down by insulating there own pockets.

Honestly, the way this market is playing makes sense to me based on everything that is going on.

I will be surprised if the people that went to the I fund today works tommorrow.

Problems Problems Problems!

 

[wv-girl]

I have been screwed the last three transfers I have made where I acted based on the morning action only to see the market completely reverse in the afternoon. God forbid I can actually get out on an up day, or in on a down day. We have now seen two 90 point gains disappear today and as of this writing with an hour to go, the Dow is now down 40+ points.

I'm sure the TSP folks are laughing at us trying to time this thing. Once again I can't help but wonder who might be taking advantage of this by buying or selling in front of our close of business transactions.

15,000 people get our email alerts. If 1 out of 4 people make the same or similar change we are talking almost 4000 transfers. If they average a $50,000 to $100,000 balance (could be higher or lower - not sure) then, if my math is correct, we're talking maybe $200,000,000 to $400,000,000 being bought or sold at the close. Is that enough to move the market? Maybe - maybe not. If it is, someone has this info and it sure looks like they are acting on it.


The question is, are we smart enough to take advantage of it on our own with some intraday ETF transactions or OEX / SPX options?

A good test might be -- stop sending the emails a few times and only post it here on your site. See if the number of hits on this site increase and also check the market action as you have done above. Just a thought.

 

[Rod]

Maybe you should simply sit tight until Oct and catch the pennies here and there.

That's my plan.

 

[tsptalk]

OK, the final tally is an almost 300 point turnaround. That's a little too much action to think we had something to do with it. But I wonder how TSP handles these transactions. They know by noon what all the TSP participants are doing. Do they start selling or buying throughout the rest of the day but give us the end of day price? What happens to the difference? Maybe that's why our fees are so low.

 

[ATCJeff]

Maybe you should simply sit tight until Oct and catch the pennies here and there.

That's my plan.

Mine too!

 

[James48843]

I have been screwed the last three transfers I have made where I acted based on the morning action only to see the market completely reverse in the afternoon.

Only three?

Consider yourself lucky.

Everything is relative.

 

[RPM]

Tom:

Any comments on these? I don't understand enough to make sense out of them!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^IRX&d=t

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKT3233920070816?rpc=44

Thanks,

 

[tsptalk]

Remember back in May when I talked about how the 90-day T-bill yields was more than 10% lower than the Fed's fund rate and that usually triggered the Fed to act to lower rates?

"The 90-day Treasury Bill (13 week) is currently yielding 4.66%. The Fed Funds rate is currently 5.25%. That makes the T-Bill 11% lower than the Fed Funds Rate. In the past, anything over the 10% level (under the -10% level in this chart) has been the green light for the Fed to lower rates. It’s been 3 years since this happened last."

This morning we are looking at 3.65% on the T-bill. Where is the Fed? He never listens to me.

 

[James48843]

Remember back in May when I talked about how the 90-day T-bill yields was more than 10% lower than the Fed's fund rate and that usually triggered the Fed to act to lower rates?

This morning we are looking at 3.65% on the T-bill. Where is the Fed? He never listens to me.

So are you saying the Fed should do an emergency rate cut, and cut the rate to 4.0%?

now THAT would garner some attention!

 

[offtrack]

Remember back in May when I talked about how the 90-day T-bill yields was more than 10% lower than the Fed's fund rate and that usually triggered the Fed to act to lower rates?

"The 90-day Treasury Bill (13 week) is currently yielding 4.66%. The Fed Funds rate is currently 5.25%. That makes the T-Bill 11% lower than the Fed Funds Rate. In the past, anything over the 10% level (under the -10% level in this chart) has been the green light for the Fed to lower rates. It’s been 3 years since this happened last."

This morning we are looking at 3.65% on the T-bill. Where is the Fed? He never listens to me.

Note the banks are getting Repos at rates below the Target 5.25. Last $12B averaged less than 5.10. Also note none of this will be passed to us

 

[tsptalk]

So are you saying the Fed should do an emergency rate cut, and cut the rate to 4.0%?

A big chunk of that recent drop in the T-bill was in the last couple of days and could be a short-term blip, but a .50% or .75% cut wouldn't be out of the question.

 

[Mike]

I gotta hope we're approaching the bottom of that emotion chart...

S&P is now 12% off its high.

 

[tsptalk]

the bottom of that emotion chart...

de·spon·den·cy (dĭ-spŏn'dən-sē)

n.
Depression of spirits from loss of hope, confidence, or courage; dejection.

Are we there yet?

 

[Mike]

I'd say we're getting there.

The market is just looking for excuses to sell off, and I gotta think that is weighing heavily on sentiment.

 

[tsptalk]

I think the real despondency will come after a couple of rallies that end in a retest as those buying will lose all hope. A reflex rally, which is due, will just be a temporary relief to the bulls. It's typical bottoming action, and nothing like we have seen in early 2003. 2004 was tough at times, but the drops were not this bad.

 

[Spaf]

I think we are "here"! But, we are not "there"! According to Spaf logic U can't be both "here" and "there" at the same time!.....:cheesy:.....When we get "there" we will be "there"!.......:suspicious: Now does anyone know where "there" is??????

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de·spon·den·cy (dĭ-spŏn'dən-sē)

n.
Depression of spirits from loss of hope, confidence, or courage; dejection.

Are we there yet?

 

[Gilligan]

Now does anyone know where "there" is??????

Who's on first, What's on second, I Don't Know's on third........
There must still be in the dugout.

 

[Gilligan]

I think the real despondency will come after a couple of rallies that end in a retest as those buying will lose all hope. A reflex rally, which is due, will just be a temporary relief to the bulls. It's typical bottoming action, and nothing like we have seen in early 2003. 2004 was tough at times, but the drops were not this bad.

Tom,
are your going to wait for a double bottom before getting back into stocks? I remember that you picked the bottom good last summer.