Interfund Transfer 6/14 for 6/15/05

[tsptalk]

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I am making my final move out of stocks this morning going 100% G fund (interfund transfer) before today's deadline.

The market is showing strength this morning and I will use it to move my remaining 30% I had in the S fund into the G fund.

 

[Guest]

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Hope the strength holds for you.

You should get .01 tomorrow in G fund.

The action now to me looks iffy. Do not think indexes will be up at the close.

But as you can tell I do not put myneck on the line here.

 

[Guest]

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Good move Tom.

I was wrong.

Thought the experts would read the 5.4% yoy core inflation rate and trade on it.

Fed is no where near done. :shock:

Volume was horrible. We know what happens after low volume bounces .

 

[Mike]

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tsptalk wrote:

I am making my final move out of stocks this morning going 100% G fund (interfund transfer) before today's deadline.

The market is showing strength this morning and I will use it to move my remaining 30% I had in the S fund into the G fund.

You just caught another $0.09 move up in the S fund. :^

I probably should've held my position a few more days than I did - oh well, that's hindsight for ya.

 

[tsptalk]

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It's just so tough to time it to the day.

 

[Guest]

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I agree.

Take GM and WMT out and the market was down very hard today.

The horrible sales report caused a short covering rally that forced us to buy stock .

GM up over 4 and WMT up nearly 3 - because of a weak sales report.

Does that make sense?

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

It's just so tough to time it to the day.

OK! but why the move entirely to the G-fund? Is this the reason?

"As I mentioned yesterday, I believe this week could be the last hurrah for the market before we see a pullback. That may or may not turn out to be true but it is amazing how similar the 1994 chart is to today's chart."

Got anything else you would want to share?

Rgds! Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

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Spaf wrote:

"As I mentioned yesterday, I believe this week could be the last hurrah for the market before we see a pullback. That may or may not turn out to be true but it is amazing how similar the 1994 chart is to today's chart."

Got anything else you would want to share?

Yes, that and the fact thatit is triple witchingweek. We have been getting one bad day on triple witching week lately and we've talked about the week following options expiration week beinghistoricallyweaker than a random week.

So it made sense to get out on the next up day.

 

[Guest]

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The spike after lunch was a battle between the shorts.

It was fun.

I bagged some big ones then.

Tom has it right the market action this week is really tough because it is a lot more then you see on the news. There is a whole world of other stuff going on that should be reported but is not.

Now you can see why there is a lot of economic data during trip witch week - it is easy to spin the data now.

I tried to explain that today in a couple post. I probably confused a lot of folks. So I will go back to just the vanilla stuff here. Should be an interesting day today. Short squeeze or sell off? Like gunfighters at the OK Coral - who is going to blink first?

Happy trading.

 

[vic]

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when interfund transfers are made, are you buying at todays closing or the

next daysclosing?

 

[Spaf]

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vic wrote:

when interfund transfers are made, are you buying at todays closing or the
next daysclosing?

Depends on when U submitted the IFT! Before 12:00EST = COB that day. After 12:00EST = COB following day. OK! Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

Yes, that and the fact thatit is triple witchingweek. We have been getting one bad day on triple witching week lately and we've talked about the week following options expiration week beinghistoricallyweaker than a random week.

So it made sense to get out on the next up day.

Been rechecking $TRAN vs other indicies and vs The Dow Theory. Basically we have a contradiction: they are not confirming each other. Maybe too soon?

My indicators are becoming an erratic traffic light!

I don't guess it would hurt to sit on the sidelines for a while.

The AM market opened with a gap up, and krude was up! Someone is a rocking the boat!

Capital preservation is rule one. The G-fund could well be a safe move.

Thanks Tom! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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The fed saved the market again with their Beige Book.

 

[TheProphet]

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Tom, Sapf,

I have been extremely busy just reading and doing my things without sharing...

I highly respect both of your opinions and I agree with both you that it is timeof geting out... but I not totally sure ifthis is the day neither the week... I was thinking more the first week of July or so... the reason is that in the linear regression analysis the C fund has not cross to the uper part of the forcast line and for the S fund just did it couple days ago... neither of both(C, S)hadraisedonuper side of theprediction lineas historicallyalways do it... I do not know how to attached Excel files on the post reply messeage... but Ican send the fileso Tomso canposted somehow and share it with the TSPtalk comunity... bottomline my humble and personal opinion and I may be wrongis that there are still few repeat few and only few more days to squeeze before the market goes south for the summeron its 10% correction or so... beforeit begin its new up cycle sometime in October or so again... :^

Good Luck...

 

[Spaf]

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lkatteng wrote:

Tom, Sapf,

I highly respect both of your opinions and I agree with both you that it is timeof geting out... but I not totally sure ifthis is the day neither the week... I was thinking more the first week of July or so...
Good Luck...

Hi Ikat .... missed U!

Transportations are generally a indicator of the economy, they are very sensitive. They were also referenced in The Dow Theory as spotting possible early trends in the economy. See: StockCharts.com using symbol $TRAN.

When $SPX and $TRAN indicate the same direction, we would have a confirmation.

IMHO, right now we have a bag of mixed signals. So, I look at a lot of them. And I maintain an alert stop of -12 S&P.

I can take the gradual advance, just fine. At least it keeps out the pirates! However, anytime oil is above $55. The alarm can go off, and panic sets in. I can sell ST in a moment, but not TSP. So, just have to watch it very closely.

Have a good one! Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

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lkatteng wrote:

Tom, Sapf,

I have been extremely busy just reading and doing my things without sharing...

I highly respect both of your opinions and I agree with both you that it is timeof geting out... but I not totally sure ifthis is the day neither the week... I was thinking more the first week of July or so...

Hi LK -
You could be right. After the July 4th weekend is a possibility. I'm always early.
But I believe it is better to be early than late in this situation because you never know.

Tom

 

[vectorman]

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Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.

 

[TheProphet]

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Tom,

You convence me... it is better to be early than late... I am getting out... into the G today... Have a Great Weekend, :^

Leon

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf,

What you said make sense to me... I am geeting out now to G...and as Tom said is better to be early than late... Have a Great Weekend...:^

Leon

 

[tsptalk]

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That's the nice thing about following this site. I'm always early so the readers usually react later and do better than I do. Today looks like a good day to get out. Wish I waited.