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Interfund Transfer 6/14 for 6/15/05
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
puertorico
Member
imported post
Tom I read u market commets .
Says that seasonality the first 5 days are avg. green
but las year was red , [s&p 500 from 11.41 to 11.09]
So I can say :
Thatwill make the bets a green days front friday 1st july to thursdays the 7th.
The point is that seasonality is good & last year was bad that make less risk
& better gains oportunities seasonality talkin.. :^common sense no :shock:
Not body know, but, Interesting point
Tom I read u market commets .
Says that seasonality the first 5 days are avg. green
but las year was red , [s&p 500 from 11.41 to 11.09]
So I can say :
Thatwill make the bets a green days front friday 1st july to thursdays the 7th.
The point is that seasonality is good & last year was bad that make less risk
& better gains oportunities seasonality talkin.. :^common sense no :shock:
Not body know, but, Interesting point
puertorico
Member
imported post
I'll keep 100-g-fund aleast until next week .
The market not go down in a row ,
Three day down in a row & 1 day
up ,then after the up day the market do more damage
in his way down .. I think the risk still big ,Let's see what
green... say about the economyif good or bad first...
I'll keep 100-g-fund aleast until next week .
The market not go down in a row ,
Three day down in a row & 1 day
up ,then after the up day the market do more damage
in his way down .. I think the risk still big ,Let's see what
green... say about the economyif good or bad first...
imported post
Well, this kind of spoiled my "a few more down days" plan. It's tempting to think "this is it!" and want to get back in. I'm not sure if that would be the right move, a bounce was expected. This was a news (consumer confidence) driven spike up during the 1st hour (emotional) of trading. I want to see how the day plays out.
I believe I talked about thatconfidence indicator before. It can also be used as a contrarian indicator in that a strong reading tends to mean lower stockprices down the road, and vice versa.
I'm notmaking a move. I want to see this hold and also see if it follows through. Still 100% G.
Tom
Well, this kind of spoiled my "a few more down days" plan. It's tempting to think "this is it!" and want to get back in. I'm not sure if that would be the right move, a bounce was expected. This was a news (consumer confidence) driven spike up during the 1st hour (emotional) of trading. I want to see how the day plays out.
I believe I talked about thatconfidence indicator before. It can also be used as a contrarian indicator in that a strong reading tends to mean lower stockprices down the road, and vice versa.
I'm notmaking a move. I want to see this hold and also see if it follows through. Still 100% G.
Tom
puertorico
Member
imported post
Waiting for greenspan thurdays ........100-g
I like to move some to f zone today
Waiting for greenspan thurdays ........100-g
I like to move some to f zone today
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Don't fight the fed!!!!
When the head central banker does not understand what is going on. How can we?
Just look at the recent data Philly fed - HORRIBLE. Retail sales (70% of this economy) - HORRIBLE. Leading Indicators - 9 out of 10 down. Only thing up was STOCK prices. :shock: Only thing up was STOCK PRICES. :shock: Least we forget the current account debt last quarter 195.1B. :shock:
Great economy the level of Chinese crap in a shopping cart. Just awesome.:?
Don't fight the fed!!!!
When the head central banker does not understand what is going on. How can we?
Just look at the recent data Philly fed - HORRIBLE. Retail sales (70% of this economy) - HORRIBLE. Leading Indicators - 9 out of 10 down. Only thing up was STOCK prices. :shock: Only thing up was STOCK PRICES. :shock: Least we forget the current account debt last quarter 195.1B. :shock:
Great economy the level of Chinese crap in a shopping cart. Just awesome.:?
imported post
vectorman wrote:
It still looks like 1994 and is alsoresembling the 2004 consolidation.
You are correct, I don't usually go to 100% G fund unless the three legs of the bull market are not strong. With psychology in negative territory, and monetary condition getting close to negative, it does give me enough ammo to go 100% G. (vluation is still quite strong).
Tom
vectorman wrote:
V-man -
It still looks like 1994 and is alsoresembling the 2004 consolidation.
You are correct, I don't usually go to 100% G fund unless the three legs of the bull market are not strong. With psychology in negative territory, and monetary condition getting close to negative, it does give me enough ammo to go 100% G. (vluation is still quite strong).
Tom
vectorman
Active member
imported post
vectorman wrote:
vectorman wrote:
Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
tsptalk wrote:
Who thought the market was going to go down the first week of January?
Who thinks the market is going down next week?
When youread the newslines and the experts saying- market set to drop next week. Then I go long.
Has worked out great so far this year.
tsptalk wrote:
Great investing insight here.
Who thought the market was going to go down the first week of January?
Who thinks the market is going down next week?
When youread the newslines and the experts saying- market set to drop next week. Then I go long. Has worked out great so far this year.
pyriel
Active member
imported post
tsptalk wrote:
Don't forget, that your indicator always tell you to go in early as well. Are you going to play it differently this time?
P
tsptalk wrote:
Tom,You could be right. After the July 4th weekend is a possibility. I'm always early.
But I believe it is better to be early than late in this situation because you never know.
Tom
Don't forget, that your indicator always tell you to go in early as well. Are you going to play it differently this time?
P
T
TheProphet
Guest
imported post
Spaf,
What you said make sense to me... I am geeting out now to G...and as Tom said is better to be early than late... Have a Great Weekend...:^
Leon
Spaf,
What you said make sense to me... I am geeting out now to G...and as Tom said is better to be early than late... Have a Great Weekend...:^
Leon
T
TheProphet
Guest
imported post
Tom,
You convence me... it is better to be early than late... I am getting out... into the G today... Have a Great Weekend, :^
Leon
Tom,
You convence me... it is better to be early than late... I am getting out... into the G today... Have a Great Weekend, :^
Leon
vectorman
Active member
imported post
Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.
Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
lkatteng wrote:
Transportations are generally a indicator of the economy, they are very sensitive. They were also referenced in The Dow Theory as spotting possible early trends in the economy. See: StockCharts.com using symbol $TRAN.
When $SPX and $TRAN indicate the same direction, we would have a confirmation.
IMHO, right now we have a bag of mixed signals. So, I look at a lot of them. And I maintain an alert stop of -12 S&P.
I can take the gradual advance, just fine. At least it keeps out the pirates! However, anytime oil is above $55. The alarm can go off, and panic sets in. I can sell ST in a moment, but not TSP. So, just have to watch it very closely.
Have a good one!
Spaf
lkatteng wrote:
Hi Ikat .... missed U!
Transportations are generally a indicator of the economy, they are very sensitive. They were also referenced in The Dow Theory as spotting possible early trends in the economy. See: StockCharts.com using symbol $TRAN.
When $SPX and $TRAN indicate the same direction, we would have a confirmation.
IMHO, right now we have a bag of mixed signals. So, I look at a lot of them. And I maintain an alert stop of -12 S&P.
I can take the gradual advance, just fine. At least it keeps out the pirates! However, anytime oil is above $55. The alarm can go off, and panic sets in. I can sell ST in a moment, but not TSP. So, just have to watch it very closely.
Have a good one!
Spaf
T
TheProphet
Guest
imported post
Tom, Sapf,
I have been extremely busy just reading and doing my things without sharing...
I highly respect both of your opinions and I agree with both you that it is timeof geting out... but I not totally sure ifthis is the day neither the week... I was thinking more the first week of July or so... the reason is that in the linear regression analysis the C fund has not cross to the uper part of the forcast line and for the S fund just did it couple days ago... neither of both(C, S)hadraisedonuper side of theprediction lineas historicallyalways do it... I do not know how to attached Excel files on the post reply messeage... but Ican send the fileso Tomso canposted somehow and share it with the TSPtalk comunity... bottomline my humble and personal opinion and I may be wrongis that there are still few repeat few and only few more days to squeeze before the market goes south for the summeron its 10% correction or so... beforeit begin its new up cycle sometime in October or so again... :^
Good Luck...
Tom, Sapf,
I have been extremely busy just reading and doing my things without sharing...
I highly respect both of your opinions and I agree with both you that it is timeof geting out... but I not totally sure ifthis is the day neither the week... I was thinking more the first week of July or so... the reason is that in the linear regression analysis the C fund has not cross to the uper part of the forcast line and for the S fund just did it couple days ago... neither of both(C, S)hadraisedonuper side of theprediction lineas historicallyalways do it... I do not know how to attached Excel files on the post reply messeage... but Ican send the fileso Tomso canposted somehow and share it with the TSPtalk comunity... bottomline my humble and personal opinion and I may be wrongis that there are still few repeat few and only few more days to squeeze before the market goes south for the summeron its 10% correction or so... beforeit begin its new up cycle sometime in October or so again... :^
Good Luck...
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
The fed saved the market again with their Beige Book.
The fed saved the market again with their Beige Book.
