Interfund Transfer 6/14 for 6/15/05

[pyriel]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

You could be right. After the July 4th weekend is a possibility. I'm always early.
But I believe it is better to be early than late in this situation because you never know.

Tom

Tom,

Don't forget, that your indicator always tell you to go in early as well. Are you going to play it differently this time?

P

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

pyriel wrote:

Don't forget, that your indicator always tell you to go in early as well. Are you going to play it differently this time?

I guess I should. It's tough though. If I miss it, I would kick myself in the butt. It happened the first week of 2005. I waited to get out and got burned. The market will humble me whatever I do.

 

[Guest]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

I guess I should. It's tough though. If I miss it, I would kick myself in the butt. It happened the first week of 2005. I waited to get out and got burned. The market will humble me whatever I do.

Great investing insight here.

Who thought the market was going to go down the first week of January?

Who thinks the market is going down next week?

When youread the newslines and the experts saying- market set to drop next week. Then I go long.

Has worked out great so far this year.

 

[vectorman]

imported post

vectorman wrote:

Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

vectorman wrote:

Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.

V-man -

It still looks like 1994 and is alsoresembling the 2004 consolidation.

You are correct, I don't usually go to 100% G fund unless the three legs of the bull market are not strong. With psychology in negative territory, and monetary condition getting close to negative, it does give me enough ammo to go 100% G. (vluation is still quite strong).

Tom

 

[Guest]

imported post

Don't fight the fed!!!!

When the head central banker does not understand what is going on. How can we?

Just look at the recent data Philly fed - HORRIBLE. Retail sales (70% of this economy) - HORRIBLE. Leading Indicators - 9 out of 10 down. Only thing up was STOCK prices. :shock: Only thing up was STOCK PRICES. :shock: Least we forget the current account debt last quarter 195.1B. :shock:

Great economy the level of Chinese crap in a shopping cart. Just awesome.:?

 

[puertorico]

imported post

Waiting for greenspan thurdays ........100-g
I like to move some to f zone today

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Well, this kind of spoiled my "a few more down days" plan. It's tempting to think "this is it!" and want to get back in. I'm not sure if that would be the right move, a bounce was expected. This was a news (consumer confidence) driven spike up during the 1st hour (emotional) of trading. I want to see how the day plays out.

I believe I talked about thatconfidence indicator before. It can also be used as a contrarian indicator in that a strong reading tends to mean lower stockprices down the road, and vice versa.

I'm notmaking a move. I want to see this hold and also see if it follows through. Still 100% G.

Tom

 

[Mike]

imported post

I'm not doing anything 'til the FOMC comments come out. Doing anything prior to that only leaves you vulnerable to whatever Greenspan says Thursday. :shock:

 

[puertorico]

imported post

I'll keep 100-g-fund aleast until next week .
The market not go down in a row ,
Three day down in a row & 1 day
up ,then after the up day the market do more damage
in his way down .. I think the risk still big ,Let's see what
green... say about the economyif good or bad first...

 

[puertorico]

imported post

Tom I read u market commets .

Says that seasonality the first 5 days are avg. green
but las year was red , [s&p 500 from 11.41 to 11.09]

So I can say :
Thatwill make the bets a green days front friday 1st july to thursdays the 7th.
The point is that seasonality is good & last year was bad that make less risk
& better gains oportunities seasonality talkin.. :^common sense no :shock:

Not body know, but, Interesting point

 

[vic]

imported post

At 11:30 AM made change to 70% "S" and 30%"C". Tired of watching

from the "G" fund. Time to step up to the plate.:^

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

I could be wrong, but a rally after six consecutive down days (for the Dow)looks more like a trap, even if it was impressive. Volume was low but not too bad.

Possible end of the month window dressing and a rush to take advantge of a day that finally saw lower oil prices.

As I mentioned above, my "plan" is thrown out the window (looking for more down days in anattempt to get back in Friday). The market didn't have a chance to become fully oversold so I think we may flop around until next week. Remember the intermediate term indicators are still overbought and that could a little time to resolve itself.

Beware the trap.

 

[ou81200]

imported post

Tom---

We might have missed this rally, but we did'nt lose any money either.

To me, any day you don't lose is a good day. I'll play it safe in the G fund for awhile.

 

[vic]

imported post

You are probably correct. I just have a lot of faith and do believe that the market

will do better. I do not see anything to gain by sitting on the side lines. I read everything you all post and I'm impressed with the knowledge on the board. Just tired of waiting for the "PENNY" rise in the G fund. Time to have a little fun. It's only money!!HA

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

vic -
Long term you are right, the pennies won't get you anywhere. As ou81200 said, we're on the sideline just trying not to lose what we made over the last two months. I'm hoping we see a better buying opportunityin few days/weeks.

Good luck!

 

[vic]

imported post

Tom, I'm with you. I hope we all make a lot of money. Just trying to have a little fun.

Wish I understood the I fund better. It appears to be doing real well. I had some

money in it for a while. Got out of it even though I was making money because I did

not know WHY I was making money. What stock markets are they tied to? Any Asian

markets? If someone has a little time and would like to explain it, I would be great

ful. Until next time, live long and prosper:^

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

vic wrote:

What stock markets are they tied to? Any Asian

markets? If someone has a little time and would like to explain it, I would be great

[url]http://www.tsptalk.com/funds.html[/url]

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Two trends I've noticed since starting this site:

- Whenever the market goes my way and I get a lot of "attaboys", the market quickly goes against me.

- Whenever my return is lagging behind the return of the S&P 500, but then passes thereturn of the S&P 500, the market quickly goes against me.

It's never easy. o

 

[vic]

imported post

Thank you for the info. Tom, you do a great job. I have learned a lot from

everyone on this site. I enjoy it . Keep up the good wprk:^