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Interfund Transfer 12/20 for 12/21/06
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Tom,
IMHO, I think it's too much of a gambe for Thursday to be in the F fund. It might work out but the gov. numbers on GDP and Phily Fed can't be trusted. I would not be surprise if the numbers come in good, to keep the soft landing or no recession optimism in play. I've read some where that 3Q GDP should have been at .8% but they refused correct it. The correction might show up in 4Q GDP. If these numbers come in line or above estimates, look out. I know from experience.
Good luck.Good morning,
I hadn't seen these posts when I asked Futurestrader a relevant question at the F fund thread. I am copying the posts for your consideration. Best wishes to all.
COPY:
Futurestrader,
Just touching bases with you. Do you think that the technicals and/or fundamentals support buying the F fund now? I am looking at $TNX 6-month daily chart. $TNX made an intraday high of 46.22, which almost touched the 50 DMA reading at 46.27 and closed the day at 45.99. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUTURESTRADER
$TNX looks to still have some room up to 4.65 resistance, could be achieved in 2-3 biz days, now at 4.597
I hadn't seen these posts when I asked Futurestrader a relevant question at the F fund thread. I am copying the posts for your consideration. Best wishes to all.
COPY:
Futurestrader,
Just touching bases with you. Do you think that the technicals and/or fundamentals support buying the F fund now? I am looking at $TNX 6-month daily chart. $TNX made an intraday high of 46.22, which almost touched the 50 DMA reading at 46.27 and closed the day at 45.99. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUTURESTRADER
$TNX looks to still have some room up to 4.65 resistance, could be achieved in 2-3 biz days, now at 4.597
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
Good morning,
I hadn't seen these posts when I asked Futurestrader a relevant question at the F fund thread. I am copying the posts for your consideration. Best wishes to all.
COPY:
Futurestrader,
Just touching bases with you. Do you think that the technicals and/or fundamentals support buying the F fund now? I am looking at $TNX 6-month daily chart. $TNX made an intraday high of 46.22, which almost touched the 50 DMA reading at 46.27 and closed the day at 45.99. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUTURESTRADER
$TNX looks to still have some room up to 4.65 resistance, could be achieved in 2-3 biz days, now at 4.597
Hi Sponsor,
my rationale: $TNX still is overbought, but showing some signs of weakening. "What's overbought/oversold can stay overbought/oversold", It's in the middle of short term, 15 day upward channel. A shot AGG might have found a bottom tho is struggling to come out of oversold, may be worth a nibble. Probably good place for 'parking lot' if you're so inclined, after getting today's G penny
It's just a technical analysis play; buying at support. If support breaks we huddle up again and come up with a new play.Tom,
IMHO, I think it's too much of a gambe for Thursday to be in the F fund. It might work out but the gov. numbers on GDP and Phily Fed can't be trusted. I would not be surprise if the numbers come in good, to keep the soft landing or no recession optimism in play. I've read some where that 3Q GDP should have been at .8% but they refused correct it. The correction might show up in 4Q GDP. If these numbers come in line or above estimates, look out. I know from experience.
Besides, you know how much I like to gamble? OK, maybe not this year.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
It's just a technical analysis play; buying at support. If support breaks we huddle up again and come up with a new play.
Besides, you know how much I like to gamble? OK, maybe not this year.
I know, I read your daily comments. I just think Thursday's bond performance will be based more on fundamentals, because the recently reported strong retail sales have bond market leaning the other way.
If you're going to gamle, wouldn't it better to gamle in the C or I fund? Good numbers=you win, bad numbers=dollar falls and help cushion the I fund.
Forgot to add, I have a different take on Friday though.
Last edited:
Propstrike
Member
Nice move on the F. Hope the new year brings mega profits and good health for everyone. Merry Christsmas and thanks for all you do.
That .03 gain in the F fund Thursday was a bit of luck as we had that hawkish statement from the Philly Fed and a rumor of a terrorist threat in England. It looks like today could be pay back day as bond yields are up (bond fund down).
I've had a couple of inquiries about some of the statements I made on bonds recently. I should be more clear because it can be confusing if you are new to them...
I had mentioned in my commentary the other day that bond yields have been falling since July and someone asked me, if that was true, then why has the F fund gone up steadily since then? Good question:
When bond yields go down, bond prices (and the F fund) go up. When Bond yields go up, bond prices (and the F fund) go down.
Kind of like sentiment surveys: Too bullish is bearish for stocks, and too bearish is bullish. Easy, right?
I've had a couple of inquiries about some of the statements I made on bonds recently. I should be more clear because it can be confusing if you are new to them...
I had mentioned in my commentary the other day that bond yields have been falling since July and someone asked me, if that was true, then why has the F fund gone up steadily since then? Good question:
When bond yields go down, bond prices (and the F fund) go up. When Bond yields go up, bond prices (and the F fund) go down.
Kind of like sentiment surveys: Too bullish is bearish for stocks, and too bearish is bullish. Easy, right?
The F fund lost .04 (or 0.36%) on Friday, but you may have noticed that the AGG ended the day down just 0.09% after a late day rally. This should mean the F fund has some fair value coming its way on Tuesday. That is unless the .03 we made on Thursday was too much and we were paying back some FV on Friday?
After a modest rally yesterday (+0.02), as luck would have it (or lack there of), a strong housing market report killed the bond fund today. That move put a hole in the recent support. Of course it was a light volume drop and it could have been an over reaction. There should be a gap to fill on the upside so I will watch what happens in the next day or two, but I might look to sell any bounce from here.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
That's why I feel that when you're in the F fund, most of the time, you're gambling on news and economic numbers. IMHO, tomorrow, Wednesday, the ISM mfr index will drive bond yields. I'm expecting a reading below 50 again, around 48. F fund should do well tomorrow, plus the one cent gain from today. I would pay close attention to the ADP employment report. Lately, a higher ADP report compared to the previous months' ADP, tend to suggest a higher gov. job number compared to the previous months' gov. number. It has also been true of the opposite, lately anyway. If the ADP report comes in much lower than last month's ADP, I might move from the I fund to the F fund on Thursday morning, for Friday's market. Good luck to you.
Btw, you're doing a great job. This site is awesome.
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