Interest Rate Watch

[tsptalk]

The weak jobs report might have sent interest rate probabilities lower, but the rapidly rising price of oil is likely holding them up because of fears of inflation.

The chances of a rate cut at this month's meeting barely changed. For the April meeting the odds of a cut went up from 12% to 24%. And here are the numbers for the end of the year (December meeting)...

Not much of a change but the odds of at least two cuts went up about 7%.

 

[tsptalk]

Markets shift back towards potential Fed rate cut this year with Iran ceasefire in place

Traders are entertaining the possibility of an interest rate cut by the end of the year now that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a cease fire.

Odds for a reduction jumped Wednesday morning, hitting about 43%, against 14% prior to the announcement.

Markets shift back towards potential Fed rate cut this year with Iran ceasefire in place

Odds for a reduction jumped Wednesday morning, hitting about 43%, according to the CME Group.

www.cnbc.com

 

[SteelSaving]

Why does that have anything to do with it?
Inflation is still higher than 2% and government spending hasn't slowed down.

 

[tsptalk]

I assume it is because oil coming down helps inflation concerns, and economic growth is questionable with these higher gas prices. Plus, the labor market is still sluggish.