Inflation

[tsptalk]

Re: imported post

Will Inflation Stay High for Decades? One Influential Economist Says Yes

Charles Goodhart sees an era of inexpensive labor giving way to years of worker shortages—and higher prices. Central bankers around the world are listening.

When the global economy tanked in March 2020, the rate of inflation looked like it was heading to zero. That made it a surprising moment for former U.K. central banker Charles Goodhart to predict that inflation would hit between 5% and 10% in 2021—and stay high.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflat...sp61ws8x5gg&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

[Boghie]

Re: imported post

We are now effectively completely out of the Boom Bubble.

The youngest Boomers are 58 years old.

There will be a labor shortage.


Also note, many of those boomers (and, actually those of us younger than the boomers) did not have pensions. We invested in IRA/401(k)/etc.. If invested in equities for those 40+ years one has to ask: Why am I working in my best years. I have a huge nest egg. Or, at least a big enough nest egg. I have no requirement to sit at some dumb ass job after the age of 60. I definitely don't need to greet fellow chumps at the local Walmart. And, that restaurant job isn't offering a good, consistent salary - in fact, those chumps dumped my ass when I absolutely needed them. Yowser, I was a good, long term employee working for table scraps. I'm good with what I have. Peace Out Baby. Later Days. Adios Amigos!!!

 

[tsptalk]

Re: imported post

Fed Governor Waller says half-point rate hikes could be needed as ‘inflation is raging’

Fed Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that the central bank may need to enact one or more half-percentage-point rate hikes in the months ahead.
“Inflation is raging,” he said, as he pushed for aggressive moves that include balance sheet reduction soon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/18/fed...-hikes-could-be-needed-to-tame-inflation.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: imported post

Powell says ‘inflation is much too high’ and the Fed will take ‘necessary steps’ to address

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell vowed tough action on inflation, which he said jeopardizes the recovery.

Powell said the Fed will continue to hike rates until inflation comes under control, and could get even more aggressive than last week’s increase, which was the first in more than three years.

He noted those rate hikes could go from the traditional 25 basis point moves to more aggressive 50 basis point increases if necessary.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/pow...fed-will-take-necessary-steps-to-address.html

 

[rangerray]

Re: imported post

In other words, recession is coming. They’ll keep hiking rates until something breaks.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[tsptalk]

Re: imported post

Probably. They have a history of acting too late, and then overshooting. But recession or out of control inflation... pick your poison.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: imported post

Everyone knows inflation is on fire. This is what’s really fueling it

Inflation doesn’t just happen at the gas pump and the grocery store. There are literally hundreds of avenues that filter into broader measures the government uses to gauge price increases.

The big three inputs for the consumer price index, the most widely followed inflation measure, are food, energy and shelter.

More: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/16/eve...is-on-fire-heres-whats-really-fueling-it.html

 

[tsptalk]

Inflation figure that the Fed follows closely hits highest level since January 1982

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 6.8%, the biggest 12-month move since the 6.9% increase in January 1982. The index rose 1% from May, tying its biggest monthly gain since February 1981.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/inf...ly-hits-highest-level-since-january-1982.html

 

[tsptalk]

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

"A full half percentage point" :blink:

 

[tsptalk]

Is Inflation 5% or 14%? It Depends on How It’s Measured
Inflation was raging in 1980 and again in 2022. How the government measures inflation has changed, and you will be amazed at the difference.

How the inflation rate is calculated impacts many aspects of our lives. Two prime examples impact the federal workforce—at least when an individual retires. The amount of the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) is determined by the inflation rate. The inflation rate also determines the amount of any increase in Social Security payments. Keep in mind that Social Security amounts may vary on whether a retired federal employee is in FERS or the older CSRS system.

https://www.fedsmith.com/2023/04/19/inflation-severity-depends-how-its-measured/

 

[JTH]

Is Inflation 5% or 14%? It Depends on How It’s Measured
Inflation was raging in 1980 and again in 2022. How the government measures inflation has changed, and you will be amazed at the difference.

IMHO, inflation is an unescapable tax on our resources & time.

The Fed is passing down the cost to all of us, the corporations are passing down the cost to all consumers (while performing layoffs/hiring freezes & reducing employee wage increases). All of this so the fed can pull back the money the government shouldn't have spent in the first place.

I would have gladly given back my stimulus check to avoid this mess. :notrust:

Sry for the rant.

 

[tsptalk]

I agree. It's a sneaky way of increasing tax revenues without raising tax rates. Prices go up because they deflated the dollar. So, salaries have to go up to supposedly keep up. So, you pay more income taxes. You pay more in property taxes. More in sales taxes. More...

 

[jonfresno]

My rant about the fed was how they sliced interest rates to nothing, essentially forcing retirees who didn't have pensions and put their life savings in CDs saw their income drop by like 80%. They saved all their lives and were content making about 5% on their money. Then bam, they got 1%. Forced them to draw down their savings. Now that the tide of low interest rates and liquidity is ending, their savings are down to nothing and prices have skyrocketed.

IMHO, inflation is an unescapable tax on our resources & time.

The Fed is passing down the cost to all of us, the corporations are passing down the cost to all consumers (while performing layoffs/hiring freezes & reducing employee wage increases). All of this so the fed can pull back the money the government shouldn't have spent in the first place.

I would have gladly given back my stimulus check to avoid this mess. :notrust:

Sry for the rant.

 

[tsptalk]

Jerome Powell, 5/03/23

“We on the committee have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly, it will take some time. In that world, if that forecast is broadly right, it would not be appropriate to cut rates.”

 

[TommyIV]

Re: imported post

Transitory sources of inflation are drying up, but the consumer's willingness to pay up will keep inflation rates elevated. Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal argues that the feedback loop of higher prices and rising wages will keep the inflation rate elevated. The Federal Reserve's pace of rising borrowing costs will not be enough to break the cycle. Their goal is to bring inflation to their 2% goal without pushing the economy off the edge and into a recession, but that might not be possible.

Whether wages are driving prices or vice versa may soon be irrelevant. Once inflation has settled at a higher steady-state rate, wages and prices rise together...In such a situation, it can take a deep recession to get inflation down.

[h=1]We May Be Getting Used to High Inflation, and That’s Bad News[/h]

 

[Bullitt]

Re: imported post

TIPS finally doing 2% better than inflation numbers.

Real interest rates hit 2% in the U.S. for the first time since 2009. 10-year TIPS yielded -1% in the pandemic

 

[tsptalk]

Re: imported post

Bold statement after that cold CPI data, which was obviously impacted by lower oil prices.


Prices rise slower than expected, but there’s still a ‘long way to go’ in taming inflation, financial expert says

While encouraging, core inflation will need to “weaken consistently over the next three to six months to support the notion that core inflation’s pace is headed for a sustainable 2% pace,” says Kurt Rankin, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

“We still have a long way to go” before core inflation is under control, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, tells CNBC Make It.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/long-way-to-go-before-inflation-is-under-control-expert-says.html

 

[tsptalk]

Fed’s Waller expresses confidence that policy is in the right place to bring down inflation

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday he is “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent.”

Waller cited a variety of areas where activity is moderating, from retail sales to the labor market to manufacturing.

Fed'''s Waller expresses confidence that policy is in the right place to bring down inflation

 

[tsptalk]

Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Tumble To Lowest Since April 2021 In Latest NY Fed Survey

After two months of late summer increases in the 1-Year inflation expectation as tracked by the NY Fed's monthly consumer survey, November saw the second consecutive decline in this series which traditionally is also a proxy for the price of oil, and which last month dropped to the lowest since April 2021. The drop in 1 year inflation expectations was not, however, matched by moves in the other series, as both the 3 and 5 year inflation expectations were unchanged.

More: Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Tumble To Lowest Since April 2021 In Latest NY Fed Survey | ZeroHedge