03/19/26
A big miss on the PPI wholesale prices PPI report turned what was going to be a big positive open, according to the futures on Wednesday morning, into a negative one and once again we saw the averages slide into the close. In the interim, the Fed left interest rates alone and showed some concern for inflation and the jobs market. Oil was up again, and that was strike three for the stock market yesterday.
WTIC Oil was trading at 100 after the closing bell and analysts spent the day trying to figure out if it was the inflationary data, the Fed, or the price of oil that sent stocks lower yesterday. It was likely a combination of all three.
I believe there was reason to be concerned yesterday, but it was an emotional day for sure with oil hitting the psychological 100 level, the Fed delivering a modestly hawkish press conference, and that eye opening PPI report
That sounds like bad news and stocks tend to go down (or up), longer than we expect, but emotional action can lead to changes. This may be a little overly optimistic with some charts still trying to satisfy potential downside targets, but there can be a tendency to see a market reversal after a Fed meeting - fading the Fed reaction.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is back down testing the open gap from back near the November lows and the 200-day moving average. I think many bulls would prefer to see those get satisfied before any turnaround, just so they move into the rearview mirror. Trading volume was light yesterday so there was no panic, and the slow bleed continued.
I posted the weekly charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 yesterday showing both at, or near, long term support levels so this is a crucial spot for the stock market.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is down to 18 (on a scale of 0 to 100) and that puts it in the Extreme Fear Zone, so investor sentiment is also at, or near, a possible capitulation low.
The Fed didn't cut rates at this meeting, but that was expected, and if there was a change it was that they seem to only be considering one rate cut by the end of the year, instead of two, which disappointed the stock market. Meanwhile the Fed is still increasing its balance sheet, which is generally bullish for assets.
The 10-year Treasury Yield popped on the high inflation data and the inverted head and shoulders pattern is alive and well, and unfortunately looks like it may be leading toward a breakout above 4.3%. What could stop that would be an abrupt end to the war and / or a sell off in the price of oil. I'm not sure if we can count on that, but it may happen quickly when it does - as in, we may not be able to act quickly enough in our TSP accounts.
Administrative Note: Last chance! We have a chance for a little distraction this week with the March Madness Tournament starting. So, if you're ready for our annual March Madness Contest, please go here for more info! It's free and prizes are awarded. The deadline to enter is the start of the first game on Thursday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) rolled over after peaking on Tuesday just under the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. This isn't a great look, falling back below the 200-day average, but this area has been holding the last couple of weeks.
The recently high flying ACWX (I-fund) continues to be taking the most heat during this pullback, and with the dollar nearing 2026 highs, the pressure is on in these international markets. The 100-day average (orange) has been holding, but the longer it knocks on that door, the more of chance someone will eventually open it.
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell back to the bottom of its wedge / channel formation with yields moving up on the inflationary PPI data. There are a lot of charts sitting on key support areas.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
A big miss on the PPI wholesale prices PPI report turned what was going to be a big positive open, according to the futures on Wednesday morning, into a negative one and once again we saw the averages slide into the close. In the interim, the Fed left interest rates alone and showed some concern for inflation and the jobs market. Oil was up again, and that was strike three for the stock market yesterday.
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WTIC Oil was trading at 100 after the closing bell and analysts spent the day trying to figure out if it was the inflationary data, the Fed, or the price of oil that sent stocks lower yesterday. It was likely a combination of all three.
I believe there was reason to be concerned yesterday, but it was an emotional day for sure with oil hitting the psychological 100 level, the Fed delivering a modestly hawkish press conference, and that eye opening PPI report
That sounds like bad news and stocks tend to go down (or up), longer than we expect, but emotional action can lead to changes. This may be a little overly optimistic with some charts still trying to satisfy potential downside targets, but there can be a tendency to see a market reversal after a Fed meeting - fading the Fed reaction.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is back down testing the open gap from back near the November lows and the 200-day moving average. I think many bulls would prefer to see those get satisfied before any turnaround, just so they move into the rearview mirror. Trading volume was light yesterday so there was no panic, and the slow bleed continued.
I posted the weekly charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 yesterday showing both at, or near, long term support levels so this is a crucial spot for the stock market.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is down to 18 (on a scale of 0 to 100) and that puts it in the Extreme Fear Zone, so investor sentiment is also at, or near, a possible capitulation low.
The Fed didn't cut rates at this meeting, but that was expected, and if there was a change it was that they seem to only be considering one rate cut by the end of the year, instead of two, which disappointed the stock market. Meanwhile the Fed is still increasing its balance sheet, which is generally bullish for assets.
The 10-year Treasury Yield popped on the high inflation data and the inverted head and shoulders pattern is alive and well, and unfortunately looks like it may be leading toward a breakout above 4.3%. What could stop that would be an abrupt end to the war and / or a sell off in the price of oil. I'm not sure if we can count on that, but it may happen quickly when it does - as in, we may not be able to act quickly enough in our TSP accounts.
Administrative Note: Last chance! We have a chance for a little distraction this week with the March Madness Tournament starting. So, if you're ready for our annual March Madness Contest, please go here for more info! It's free and prizes are awarded. The deadline to enter is the start of the first game on Thursday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) rolled over after peaking on Tuesday just under the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. This isn't a great look, falling back below the 200-day average, but this area has been holding the last couple of weeks.
The recently high flying ACWX (I-fund) continues to be taking the most heat during this pullback, and with the dollar nearing 2026 highs, the pressure is on in these international markets. The 100-day average (orange) has been holding, but the longer it knocks on that door, the more of chance someone will eventually open it.
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell back to the bottom of its wedge / channel formation with yields moving up on the inflationary PPI data. There are a lot of charts sitting on key support areas.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
