04/15/26
Stocks continued their winning ways with this historic winning streak as the S&P 500 has been up 9 of the last 10 days, and the Nasdaq is 10 out of 10. The price of oil came tumbling down 7% yesterday, plus some better than expected inflation data, helped yields pull back.
Producer Price Index (PPI) beat forecasts. We knew the rising price of oil and gas was going to be ugly for March, but the data was better than expected, and the Core PPI, which does not include food and energy, was up just 0.02% month over month. Core PPI year over year was a lofty 3.8% but that was still better than expected.
We are dealing higher gas prices, but oil fell 7% yesterday and that helped yields tumble, and the 10-year chart is starting to look interesting. There is support at the 50 and 200-day averages, but the bear flag inside a head and shoulders pattern may be telling us that lower yields are coming.
Give me a V! "Veee!" What does it spell? "V-bottom!" A little cheerleading for the bulls but we have the potential for a double top coming. After a massive rally off the lows the S&P 500 (C-fund) may be a little tired and in need of a pause, but that was one heck of a V bottom. Momentum is on the bulls' side and higher prices are probably coming, but in the short-term, after 9 up days in the last 10, it wouldn't be surprising if we saw some profit taking, especially with that potential for a double top pullback.
However, looking back to the 2025 tariff V bottom, while we did see a few multi-day dips in there before the upside resumed, there wasn't much of a double top pullback in 2025, which surprised a lot of us, but there were some hiccups that allowed the underinvested to jump in at slightly lower prices in May and June.
The weekly chart shows how easily the S&P 500 made a new high after the 2025 V-bottom. There was barely a headwind until later in the year.
Perhaps the difference between now and 2025 is the potential for a new development out of the Middle East. But, any shakeup will likely get bought up rather quickly - within days or a week would be my guess.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) popped 1% yesterday, lagging the S&P 500 (C-fund) by a bit, but it too is racing toward the previous highs. I didn't even have to mark the open gaps as they are quite obvious. This could turn out to be a massive inverted head and shoulder pattern, but a right shoulder would have to form first. The left shoulder took about a month to complete. The blue line at the top is the all time intraday high.
ACWX (I-fund) has blasted off its recent lows and has been the hottest TSP fund in April after an awful March where it lost over 9%. This month it is up almost 9% already - just halfway through. The open gaps remind us that there could be a wiggle room in the near-term, in either direction.
BND (bonds / F-fund) looks better now that yields are falling and the wedge has broken to the upside. There is still a big open gap near 72.90, but it looks like it is now pointing toward the gap up above 74.60.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks continued their winning ways with this historic winning streak as the S&P 500 has been up 9 of the last 10 days, and the Nasdaq is 10 out of 10. The price of oil came tumbling down 7% yesterday, plus some better than expected inflation data, helped yields pull back.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
Producer Price Index (PPI) beat forecasts. We knew the rising price of oil and gas was going to be ugly for March, but the data was better than expected, and the Core PPI, which does not include food and energy, was up just 0.02% month over month. Core PPI year over year was a lofty 3.8% but that was still better than expected.
We are dealing higher gas prices, but oil fell 7% yesterday and that helped yields tumble, and the 10-year chart is starting to look interesting. There is support at the 50 and 200-day averages, but the bear flag inside a head and shoulders pattern may be telling us that lower yields are coming.
Give me a V! "Veee!" What does it spell? "V-bottom!" A little cheerleading for the bulls but we have the potential for a double top coming. After a massive rally off the lows the S&P 500 (C-fund) may be a little tired and in need of a pause, but that was one heck of a V bottom. Momentum is on the bulls' side and higher prices are probably coming, but in the short-term, after 9 up days in the last 10, it wouldn't be surprising if we saw some profit taking, especially with that potential for a double top pullback.
However, looking back to the 2025 tariff V bottom, while we did see a few multi-day dips in there before the upside resumed, there wasn't much of a double top pullback in 2025, which surprised a lot of us, but there were some hiccups that allowed the underinvested to jump in at slightly lower prices in May and June.
The weekly chart shows how easily the S&P 500 made a new high after the 2025 V-bottom. There was barely a headwind until later in the year.
Perhaps the difference between now and 2025 is the potential for a new development out of the Middle East. But, any shakeup will likely get bought up rather quickly - within days or a week would be my guess.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) popped 1% yesterday, lagging the S&P 500 (C-fund) by a bit, but it too is racing toward the previous highs. I didn't even have to mark the open gaps as they are quite obvious. This could turn out to be a massive inverted head and shoulder pattern, but a right shoulder would have to form first. The left shoulder took about a month to complete. The blue line at the top is the all time intraday high.
ACWX (I-fund) has blasted off its recent lows and has been the hottest TSP fund in April after an awful March where it lost over 9%. This month it is up almost 9% already - just halfway through. The open gaps remind us that there could be a wiggle room in the near-term, in either direction.
BND (bonds / F-fund) looks better now that yields are falling and the wedge has broken to the upside. There is still a big open gap near 72.90, but it looks like it is now pointing toward the gap up above 74.60.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
