ILoveTDs
Member
My Technical Thoughts: The 20 day SMA fell below the 80 day SMA for the S Fund yesterday @ 33.56. Last time it dipped below the 80 day SMA was 25 April 2014 @ 33.51; essentially the market has done nothing all summer.
The 50 Day SMA compared to the 200 Day SMA has yet to cross over. However, on 1 January the 50 Day SMA was @ 32.44 and the 200 day SMA was @ 29.90, or 8.5% over the 200 SMA. COB yesterday the 50 day SMA was @ 33.56 and the 200 day SMA was @ 33.39, or 0.5% over 200 SMA.
My Gut thoughts: This market is whipsawing but it is also clearly contracting. I'm not stating the market is going to make a major correction shortly. In all likelihood I think October will be down a couple %, and November will go with politics (Democrats win market down, Republicans win market up), and Wall Street will pump the Santa Rally EOY to just short of 10%. Basically, I think the market will continue to whipsaw through the year and close at new highs with mom and pop not noticing the 50 day SMA crossing below the 200 day SMA in most index's which is a bear market indicator to wall street. I think Wall Street will strike and the bear will arrive in the first half of 2015.
My Seasonal Thought: Octobers are usually 50-50 on which direction they go. Congressional election October is usually bias to the positive side. Some of the worst month in stock market history are Octobers; see October 2008 and 1987.
G Fund or F Fund: Of the last 60 days the F Fund moved in the same direction as the S Fund 22 time or 36% of the time. As a result, the F Fund looks to do the opposite currently of the S Fund.
Finale: With the 20 crossing below the 80 SMA I moving to the F Fund and will be out most the month with the exception of may snipping one or two days with my one remaining IFT.
The 50 Day SMA compared to the 200 Day SMA has yet to cross over. However, on 1 January the 50 Day SMA was @ 32.44 and the 200 day SMA was @ 29.90, or 8.5% over the 200 SMA. COB yesterday the 50 day SMA was @ 33.56 and the 200 day SMA was @ 33.39, or 0.5% over 200 SMA.
My Gut thoughts: This market is whipsawing but it is also clearly contracting. I'm not stating the market is going to make a major correction shortly. In all likelihood I think October will be down a couple %, and November will go with politics (Democrats win market down, Republicans win market up), and Wall Street will pump the Santa Rally EOY to just short of 10%. Basically, I think the market will continue to whipsaw through the year and close at new highs with mom and pop not noticing the 50 day SMA crossing below the 200 day SMA in most index's which is a bear market indicator to wall street. I think Wall Street will strike and the bear will arrive in the first half of 2015.
My Seasonal Thought: Octobers are usually 50-50 on which direction they go. Congressional election October is usually bias to the positive side. Some of the worst month in stock market history are Octobers; see October 2008 and 1987.
G Fund or F Fund: Of the last 60 days the F Fund moved in the same direction as the S Fund 22 time or 36% of the time. As a result, the F Fund looks to do the opposite currently of the S Fund.
Finale: With the 20 crossing below the 80 SMA I moving to the F Fund and will be out most the month with the exception of may snipping one or two days with my one remaining IFT.
