ILoveTDs Account Talk

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ILoveTDs said:
I think we are due for a down day int he S Fund and I still have two IFTs for November. Going to get out for a day or two, but plan to be back in riding into December.
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Well that didn't work, just cost me some gains. Back in the market COB today 50/50 S and I Fund
 
Yeah, didn't work for me either, but I'm not getting back in. I've lost too much money this year trying to enter a month invested or saving my 2 precious IFTs. I gotta stop that.
 
My technical thoughts. COB the S Fund is above all the major SMA’s (5, 10, 20, 25, 40, 50, 80, 100, and 200) which would indicate they are overbought. As a result, all the major SMA’s (10, 20, 25, 40, 50, 80, 100, and 200) have continued to drift upward over the last month. Additionally, the short term and long term division of four (5/20, 25/100, 50/200) are positive pointing to overall uptrend’s in the markets. However, the midterm SMA’s (10/40, 20/80) have yet to acknowledge the uptrend, but the gap between these divisions has continued to close in.

My gut thoughts. The stock market seems to like QE3 but doesn’t like this fiscal cliff nonsense, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. I suspect they will offset each other and the market will remain flat until the fiscal cliff is fixed and start to decline as we get closer to Christmas.

S Fund is currently at $23.63, with an all time high of $24.46. That gives us 3.5 % of upside before we hit all time highs.

My seasonality thoughts. December has a notorious Santa rally; however, next week is traditionally the worst week for December. December 31 is also been down almost every year the last 10 years, which I believe in part has to do with the “Dogs of the Dow” players.



Currently I’m thinking the S Fund is overbought because it is over all the major SMA’s, next week is traditional the worst week of December, and the fiscal cliff will not get fixed until last minute and will start to effect the market a few days from now. We’ll see what happens, but I’m thinking I might pull the trigger and get out Friday or Monday for about a week and try to get back in a few cents cheaper and pick up a few extra shares. If I do get out though I only plan to stay out about a week as I still think long term we’re in an uptrend and believe in the Santa rally. Additionally, I believe this fiscal cliff thing will get fixed it will just be last minute.


Thoughts?????
 
ILoveTDs said:
My seasonality thoughts. December has a notorious Santa rally; however, next week is traditionally the worst week for December. December 31 is also been down almost every year the last 10 years, which I believe in part has to do with the “Dogs of the Dow” players.

Thoughts?????
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Which is the worse fate - to be in stocks on the last day of December, or out of them on the first day of January? I only have been following the last two years, when the first day of January has been up significantly (I think 1-2% both years, if my memory serves me). I'd like to be in for the start of January for once this year.
 
I remember the conversation last year. Buying in on the last trading day of December was talked about. But then you gotta play the month with 1 other IFT.
 
Here is the data I have, so you can make your own decision. I usually only make this move if I have both my IFTs at the end of the month; one to get out and one to get back in, so I'm invested in January.
December January
2003/4 -0.72% 0.16%
2004/5 -0.14% -1.56%
2005/6 -0.49% 1.48%
2006/7 -0.64% 0.00%
2007/8 -0.40% -1.31%
2008/9 3.03% 2.36%
2009/10 -1.04% 1.95%
2010/11 -0.48% 1.50%
2011/12 -0.39% 1.30%
 
ILoveTDs said:
Currently I’m thinking the S Fund is overbought because it is over all the major SMA’s, next week is traditional the worst week of December, and the fiscal cliff will not get fixed until last minute and will start to effect the market a few days from now. We’ll see what happens, but I’m thinking I might pull the trigger and get out Friday or Monday for about a week and try to get back in a few cents cheaper and pick up a few extra shares. If I do get out though I only plan to stay out about a week as I still think long term we’re in an uptrend and believe in the Santa rally. Additionally, I believe this fiscal cliff thing will get fixed it will just be last minute.
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100% F Fund COB
 
Went and bought $200 in junk silver today (4% above spot).

Walked out with $4.00 in quarters and $4.20 in dimes, just seems wierd to give someone $200 and get $8.20 in return.
 
You just bought a 30 year investment. Your kids someday may appreciate that. I bought my gold coins in 1980 at $800 each.
 
Definatly a long term investment, and I try to throw a couple hundred bucks at it every couple months.

However, junk silver (quarters/dimes) just throw's me off with their face value as oppose to silver rounds, even though I know they shouldn't.
 
Meant to get back in yesterday, but got super sick and slept throught the deadline, so 100% S Fund COB.
 
Anyone with 2 IFT's getting out COB and in COB Monday to play what I call the "Dogs of the Dow" down day?
 
ILoveTDs said:
Anyone with 2 IFT's getting out COB and in COB Monday to play what I call the "Dogs of the Dow" down day?
Click to expand...

i was thinking about the opposite move, but then it turned to the upside. i've got 14%+ this year, why mess with success?
 
ILoveTDs said:
Anyone with 2 IFT's getting out COB and in COB Monday to play what I call the "Dogs of the Dow" down day?
Click to expand...

Not exactly. I pulled 40% out last Friday, and I'm going to IFT it back in this weekend so that I'll be in for the first day of January though. So I guess I'm playing a half-a$$ version of the game.
 
ILoveTDs said:
Anyone with 2 IFT's getting out COB and in COB Monday to play what I call the "Dogs of the Dow" down day?
Click to expand...

It’s very tempting to jump in with a possible -FV in the I Fund if the markets crash on Monday. I’m thinking that BHO will come out pushing the so called Bipartisan Senate plan to the House on Monday and they will probably reject it outright which will burn the markets. The funny thing is that Both Parties really don’t get it, the problem isn’t Revenue, it’s Spending!!!! Those making over $250K per year would need to cough up $2.42 Billion Each :blink: to just pay for the last four years of Deficit Spending!!! Until they get their Spending under control, everything else is Totally Irrelevant... Me personally, I would rather see our nation go over the cliff than continue Maxing out Spending / Borrowing / Printing $$$ as they have over the last four years...:cool:


On a more positive note, we have > 100 participants on here who have beaten the S&P 500 YTD!!!! WooooHooooo!!!!:cool::cool:
 
Sensei said:
Not exactly. I pulled 40% out last Friday, and I'm going to IFT it back in this weekend so that I'll be in for the first day of January though. So I guess I'm playing a half-a$$ version of the game.
Click to expand...
You do realize it will actually be the third of January before any changes from Friday, 28 Dec 1200 and later take effect? You had the last chance of the year on 27 Dec (accomplished 28 December) to make a change for the New Year!
 
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