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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!ILoveTDs Account Talk
- Thread starter ILoveTDs
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ILoveTDs
Member
Was at a conference this week and heard a speaker give the BirchTree 17,000 speech. A lot of what he said made a lot of sense. Basically, interest rates being low and with QE3 they look to stay low. Additionally, since China, Japan, and Europe are printing money faster then us causing the dollar to increase, precious metal are on the decline. As a result, we are seeing a rush to equities we should expect to continue in the interim future.
We'll see what the summer brings, I'm personally a little more skeptical but thought I would pass on one mans opinion.
ILoveTDs
Member
My technical thoughts. The S Fund is exactly between the major SMA’s (below 5, 10, 20, 25, 40, and above 50, 80, 100, and 200) which would indicate we are currently in an uptrend. As a result, all the major SMA’s (5, 10, 20, 25, 40, 50, 80, 100, and 200) have continued to drift upward over the last month. Additionally, all the division of four (5/20, 10/40, 20/80, 25/100, 50/200) are positive pointing to overall uptrend’s in the markets.
My gut thoughts. The stock market seems to like QE3 and alot of shepple are starting to feel like the train is leave without them. I see these people putting their money back in the market, and the combination propelling this market further upward. My only concerns are the S Fund and .INX is currently at an all time high which worries me, and I can see U.S Treasuries getting a credit downgrade within the next few months which will result in a few big down day’s.
My seasonality thoughts. The last half of April is usually better then the first part of April. However, sell in May is just around the corner. When January starts positive (such as this year) the year is almost always positive.
Currently I’m thinking the S Fund is overbought because it’s at all time high prices. However, I think we have another week or two of uptrend based on seasonality and the technicals. After that I think we’ll start to see the “sell in May” start to trickle out of the market, but will be negated by the people who feel the train is leaving them. I might sell 2 May and sit out in-case the 3 May reports are ugly, and then reassess from there.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Not in it this year... JP is I believe
jpcavin
Well-known member
I don't sell anything at a loss. It has to zero out or I die, whichever comes first.
jpcavin
Well-known member
I don't have that much invested. I have a loss of $139 so it would not make too much sense to spend $8.95 to get the $80 dollars remaining. Your situation could be different.
ILoveTDs
Member
In my opinion it might be up next week, but I think their is more basis for it to be down then up. I'm willing to miss any gains it might have to avoid the loses I think are more likely to come. If they take the debt ceiling up to the last minute Moody's is going to down grade us regardless based on uncertainty (10% correction). Additionally, I still have an IFT to re-enter the market if I am wrong.
ILoveTDs
Member
My gut thoughts or crystal ball from here would be that the next two days close in the red with the S&P at 1630 -1635 at close on Thursday. One if not both days will have a late day rally. Fridays will be up 5-10 points with market timers expecting a deal over the weekend (1635-1645) and 4 days in the red. Those invested in the C fund will lose 45 to 55 (1690 to 1635) points or a 2.66% to 3.25% loss for the week.
If their is no deal reached over the weekend (I don't expect a deal by then) we open Monday 20 points in the red, if a deal is reached people rush back to the market (20 points in the green).
I have no idea what is going to happen but that would be my bet if I had unlimited IFTs. I don't have unlimited IFTs though, so I'll sit in the G Fund until they reach an agreement.
I don't believe technical analysis is going to play any part in the market over the next 4 trading days, Wall Street has be hijacked by D.C.Similar threads
