Going over the data after Friday's close I chose not to write a blog over the weekend because there wasn't anything to say I haven't already said. In my Account Talk I stated "If I believe I can escape with a gain or flat, then I'm likely to make an exit tomorrow and let everyone else chase the rest of this rally." While my exit yielded a 2.70% gain for the month (awesome), I did lose out on an additional gain of 2.63% (not so awesome.) Sometimes it's a good idea to chase rallies and other times it isn't. For me this is the latter because I don't believe we've established a definitive uptrend off the correction's bottom.
Below: On this chart of the Wilshire 4500 Daily, I've drawn in the swing highs & lows from the May top to today. We can see the downtrend was established from points 1A-2B-3C. At point B in the market we're in a downtrend and you should be on-guard looking for an an opportunity to exit unless you're willing to take on additional risk. At point 4 we've established a higher high, but this does not mean we've established a higher low therefore it's an unestablished trend (not something I'd recommend trading.) From point 4, once we break below the previous swing low point C, we've confirmed the unestablished trend and provided further confirmation the downtrend is still the prevalent trend. The point of all this is until we establish a higher high above point 4 and a higher low above point D, we are in a downtrend.
My overall recommendation is to stay out of this market, watching the fight from the sidelines. My systems are not in agreement with each other and when this happens I find it's better to sit on my hands than force a trade. I did have one of experimental system issue a full-scale sell today, it's the third such signal with 5 sell signals in all, over the last 2 years but the results are mixed. If you are already in, I do see further room to the upside but I also feel there is increased risk that goes with it. We all trade our accounts with our own best interest and I hope everyone understands we each have our own trades to make. Either ways I wish everyone the best.
Take care & trade safe...Jason
Below: On this chart of the Wilshire 4500 Daily, I've drawn in the swing highs & lows from the May top to today. We can see the downtrend was established from points 1A-2B-3C. At point B in the market we're in a downtrend and you should be on-guard looking for an an opportunity to exit unless you're willing to take on additional risk. At point 4 we've established a higher high, but this does not mean we've established a higher low therefore it's an unestablished trend (not something I'd recommend trading.) From point 4, once we break below the previous swing low point C, we've confirmed the unestablished trend and provided further confirmation the downtrend is still the prevalent trend. The point of all this is until we establish a higher high above point 4 and a higher low above point D, we are in a downtrend.
My overall recommendation is to stay out of this market, watching the fight from the sidelines. My systems are not in agreement with each other and when this happens I find it's better to sit on my hands than force a trade. I did have one of experimental system issue a full-scale sell today, it's the third such signal with 5 sell signals in all, over the last 2 years but the results are mixed. If you are already in, I do see further room to the upside but I also feel there is increased risk that goes with it. We all trade our accounts with our own best interest and I hope everyone understands we each have our own trades to make. Either ways I wish everyone the best.
Take care & trade safe...Jason
I feel better now, even if I sold at a loss. 
I was in too long and just followed the mkt down.
