Stocks opened lower on Thursday but typical holiday buoyancy seemed to prop them up and they closed well off their lows. The Dow managed an 11-point gain while the broader indices ended the day flat or with with modest losses. Not bad after a 300-point rally. The I-fund played a little catch up.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 189"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0063%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.13%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.59%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.80%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
As we get closer to the holidays, the thought is that traders take time off leaving just investors on Wall Street who are generally buyers. Money continues to flow into retirement accounts, etc., and so the bias is positive this time of year. Volume tends to be light. What this does is leave the market vulnerable to negative news, which is on the rare side this time of year. So I believe the bias is up, but the downside risk is higher than the upside potential should something newsworthy occur.
The S&P 500 (SPY) is again testing the recent highs which have held for about a month now.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps are lagging a bit as they are not quite at the November highs, and the old support line has so far acted as resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today (Friday) is day -3 on this seasonality chart surrounding Christmas Day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 10-year bond may be breaking down, or it is a pre-holiday fake out. I hate to take the pre-holiday action too seriously, but as we have been saying, the bond charts look terrible and only extreme bearish sentiment in the bond market may be keeping it from falling like a rock.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As we get closer to the holidays, I will make the commentaries a little more brief. I never really take a real vacation from TSP Talk all year, but I will lighten the load around this time. We all know the deal with seasonality and analysis isn't worth as much this time of year.
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we look at the sentiment survey results and the short-term indicators. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="width: 189"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0063%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.13%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.59%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.80%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
As we get closer to the holidays, the thought is that traders take time off leaving just investors on Wall Street who are generally buyers. Money continues to flow into retirement accounts, etc., and so the bias is positive this time of year. Volume tends to be light. What this does is leave the market vulnerable to negative news, which is on the rare side this time of year. So I believe the bias is up, but the downside risk is higher than the upside potential should something newsworthy occur.
The S&P 500 (SPY) is again testing the recent highs which have held for about a month now.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps are lagging a bit as they are not quite at the November highs, and the old support line has so far acted as resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today (Friday) is day -3 on this seasonality chart surrounding Christmas Day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 10-year bond may be breaking down, or it is a pre-holiday fake out. I hate to take the pre-holiday action too seriously, but as we have been saying, the bond charts look terrible and only extreme bearish sentiment in the bond market may be keeping it from falling like a rock.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As we get closer to the holidays, I will make the commentaries a little more brief. I never really take a real vacation from TSP Talk all year, but I will lighten the load around this time. We all know the deal with seasonality and analysis isn't worth as much this time of year.
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we look at the sentiment survey results and the short-term indicators. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
