08/14/13
Stocks opened higher but quickly retreated during the first couple hours of trading. Buyers stepped up again taking most indices into positive territory, but they closed off the highs. The Dow, which had been down about 75-points in early trading, and up about 85 after lunch, closed up 31-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 156"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 continues to consolidate and holding at the May high and 20-day EMA. This looks bullish for at least the short-term, but volume is low and some indicators have me concerned.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The QQQ (Nasdaq 100) made new highs yesterday with the help of Apple, which jumped nearly 5% after investor Carl Icahn mentioned he likes the stock and is buying it aggressively.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The I-fund was helped by a 2.6% rebound in Japan's Nikkei after there was talk about lowering their corporate tax rates. Unfortunately, the I-fund was only up 0.18% because of strength in the dollar.
The UUP (dollar ETF) rallied 0.5% and broke a descending resistance line. The 20-day EMA acted as support - something we might expect in a bear market or downtrend. The I-fund's fate will be affected by the direction the dollar takes from here. If the 20-day EMA holds as resistance, the I-fund will benefit. If the the resistance is broken and this rebound continues, the I-fund will be negatively impacted.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The short-term indicators have curled up and this is a positive sign for ... the short-term. This is an options expiration week and it has a positive bias so a little more upside here seems reasonable, but if the descending trends on these indicators hold, the upside could be limited.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The intermediate-term indicators, however, are still pointing down, and the PMO is on a sell signal.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This makes it more likely that more consolidation may be needed before the next leg of this bull market rally resumes. And with the 5th Hindenburg Omen Signal hitting in the last 8 days, it could be something a little more than a consolidation.
As mentioned, this is options expiration week, which has a moderately positive long-term bias, while next week, post-options expiration week, has a below average bias.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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