hessian's Account Talk

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<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value=" ...+more,
-but when I click the red "TUBE" - I get kicked out to I suppose the main page.

I do not get any/know what "Bracket Sets" you mean, to paste between. -I'm still clueless how this works. :embarrest:
Appreciate your trying to help.
VR

Just edited your post (hope you dont mind) works for me! Are you running Internet Explorer? There may be security settings, SpyBot, Firewall, or something that is blocking you? Any Geeks know what it might be?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hey VR,

He means the red Tube icon just above and to the right of the text field where you add/edit these responses before posting. Once the youtube brackets come up then insert info you've been posting BETWEEN the brackets!
 
Got it !! -thanks, ALL!
1st = CEO Compensation Hearing - Mozilo Blames Victims!!

 
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Hey Folks,
I thought for learning purposes, I'd post rational for making my huge move Monday before noon - expecting a one-day-bounce for Tues (with NO advance knowledge of any Fed action. As it turned out, the latter maybe helped, but as I'll suggest later, I don't think it was large factor, just a small boost (though the Fed took the credit and all the talking-heads sang their praises).

I'd been studying "mirrors" in the charts - one's that "Oscar's videos" showed us initially, & events following specific "parabolic SAR" occurrances.
As a result: I thought carefully and decided to go in BIG for a 1-day IFT on Monday, (actually went 80%S, therefore "in" for Tuesday). I realized the risk here, so I didn't want to broadcast this generally/considering primarily newcomers, and uncertainty myself!).

Here's rational, look at each previous mirror events, shown in the 2 charts below:
View attachment 3519
View attachment 3520

Shown in the Blue brackets, (I drew in), I noted basically 3 big down days, (sometimes w doji/spinning top in between), but then, there was almost always a single big day up (again sometimes followed be a doji/spinning top), before, then resuming numerous, BIG drop-days.
Counting, I believed Monday was to be that 3rd "down-day," which, I took as possibly setting up Tuesday for the BIG bounce-day.

There were other indicators, fundamentals said oversold/nothing goes straight down/possible intermeeting rate cuts (yeck)/news expecting no surprises/weak, ...but the above TA was my overiding decision factor.
Note that I had used the 7-day Moving average as what I expected as the upper limit of what to expect -on prior mirrors (note that today's S&P500 candlestick cleared that 7-day MA by only a minimal amount!)

Hoping that maybe something here's of value to some -to absorb for future reference -just FYI. :):)

PS
As a sort of validation I checked these same dates for this pattern not only in SPX, but also in EMW (the "S"), also Nasdaq $COMPQ, $NDX, $INDU, even $TRAN - all show almost the same 3 big drop-days (sometimes 2), but then that single large white candle retracement, before continued drops that follow -below is couple links to review:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CO...d=p55192775979

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ND...d=p55192775979
 
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hessian said:
Hey Folks,
I thought for learning purposes, I'd post rational for making my huge move Monday before noon - expecting a one-day-bounce for Tues (with NO advance knowledge of any Fed action. As it turned out, the latter maybe helped, but as I'll suggest later, I don't think it was large factor, just a small boost (though the Fed took the credit and all the talking-heads sang their praises).

I'd been studying "mirrors" in the charts - one's that "Oscar's videos" showed us initially, & events following specific "parabolic SAR" occurrances.
As a result: I thought carefully and decided to go in BIG for a 1-day IFT on Monday, (actually went 80%S, therefore "in" for Tuesday). I realized the risk here, so I didn't want to broadcast this generally/considering primarily newcomers, and uncertainty myself!).

Here's rational, look at each previous mirror events, shown in the 2 charts below:
View attachment 3519
View attachment 3520

Shown in the Blue brackets, (I drew in), I noted basically 3 big down days, (sometimes w doji/spinning top in between), but then, there was almost always a single big day up (again sometimes followed be a doji/spinning top), before, then resuming numerous, BIG drop-days.
Counting, I believed Monday was to be that 3rd "down-day," which, I took as possibly setting up Tuesday for the BIG bounce-day.

There were other indicators, fundamentals said oversold/nothing goes straight down/possible intermeeting rate cuts (yeck)/news expecting no surprises/weak, ...but the above TA was my overiding decision factor.
Note that I had used the 7-day Moving average as what I expected as the upper limit of what to expect -on prior mirrors (note that today's S&P500 candlestick cleared that 7-day MA by only a minimal amount!)

Hoping that maybe something here's of value to some -to absorb for future reference -just FYI. :):)

PS
As a sort of validation I checked these same dates for this pattern not only in SPX, but also in EMW (the "S"), also Nasdaq $COMPQ, $NDX, $INDU, even $TRAN - all show almost the same 3 big drop-days (sometimes 2), but then that single large white candle retracement, before continued drops that follow -below is couple links to review:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CO...d=p55192775979

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ND...d=p55192775979
Click to expand...

Congrats and well done! I went in light for almost the same reasons. I wasn't expecting a big bounce and only took a small position based on the drop in Jan and the Feb 6 low. Only had 2% c,s,& i. Probably will go back 100% G today. (I'm chicken). My plan was to add a little on each decent dip back to support and if it went lower add a little more on bounces until the bulls return. Hard to pass up collecting on this bounce but I'm not expecting any breakouts yet, too much negativity still imo. I like the daily updates on the home page for TSP Talk. pretty good info. Thanks for sharing your TA Hessian!
 
Re: fighting back - IFT limits
IMO, we need to get as many of the "Retirement Organizations" behind us as we can - backing this - because this does directly harm retirees (as well active employees wanting to retire).

Retirement Organizations have tremendous Congressional lobby, clout, money, & legal staff resources!!
Baby-boomers now retiring cannot rely just on Social Security!
Folks retiring need help, not walls thrown in our path!!

(I did fax my comments on the FR Notice to FRTIB. -FWIW.)

 
Sent to me - thought I'd share this for others/consideration...

What's America's real inflation rate?
If rate is so low, how come food and energy cost so much?

Posted: March 19, 2008
9:44 pm Eastern
By Jerome R. Corsi

WorldNetDaily
Why is it that the federal government says the U.S. has virtually no inflation – less that 2 percent – but everything keeps getting more expensive, especially food and gasoline? Today, gasoline is well above $3.00 a gallon. "Sticker shock" comes not just from the cost of buying a new car, but from the $50.00 or more it costs to fill up the gas tank, even if you don't own an SUV. You're lucky if $100 buys two bags of groceries at the supermarket, even if you avoid the filet mignon.
Take a family of four to a movie theater to see a first-run film and it can cost $75 even in the Midwest. You will shell out somewhere between $6 and $9 just for one adult ticket, and you can end up spending somewhere between $65 to $75 total if all you do is spring for the luxury of popcorn and sodas.

Still, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in August 2007 a remarkably low inflation rate of only 1.7 percent. Solving this riddle – that is, why everything costs so much when the government tells us inflation rates are low – is simple:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics lies.

Inflation numbers are intentionally manipulated to keep cost-of-living numbers low.
If the average chief executive officer cooked balance sheet numbers the way the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the Consumer Price Index, the CEO would be in jail, even without Sarbanes-Oxley reporting standards.
Why does the federal government lie about inflation? Again, the direct answer is simple. Telling the truth about inflation would require the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and that would be bad for economic growth.

Besides, hundreds of billions of dollars in government entitlement payment outflows depend on the inflation number. For instance, federal law mandates that Social Security checks increase thanks to "cost-of-living adjustments," or COLAs, that are supposed to compensate for inflation. So, higher inflation numbers cost the federal government millions more in increased Social Security payments.
But when the Bureau of Labor Statistics intentionally rigs the Consumer Price Index calculations to low-ball the inflation rate, Social Security entitlement payments are kept level. As a result, retirees quietly lose billions of dollars that should have been paid out, had the cost of living numbers been reported honestly.

How does the federal government manipulate inflation numbers?
The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is the central statistic the federal government uses to calculate inflation. The CPI is a complex government statistic that was introduced in the 1920s to track the market cost of a "basket of goods and services." Beginning during the Carter administration, federal economists cleverly redefined the CPI, with the goal of removing from the index expensive items, including food and energy, that would push the CPI higher.
Today, the Federal Reserve when setting interest rates focuses on a variation of the CPI that measures "core inflation." According to the Forbes "Investopedia," core inflation excludes items such as food and energy because food and energy "face volatile price movements."
In other words, since food and energy prices can spike upwards, as they have this year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates "core inflation" without food and energy prices, under the rationale that food and energy price spikes are merely temporary price shocks that would distort the measurement of underlying long-term inflation. To a family faced with paying rising food costs to feed the kids and skyrocketing gas costs just get to work, the definition of "core inflation" at 2 percent is a joke, not at all reflective of the increased dollars families have just to get by.

Even more disturbing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' calculation of "core inflation" is not limited merely to throwing food and energy prices out of the CPI. The price of any good or service in the CPI market basket prone to spiking can be thrown out, under the rationale that the items with the largest price changes reflect passing market disequilibrium that would distort the measurement of long-term trends. When removing expensive items from the CPI market basket of goods and services was not enough to depress inflation numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics innovated even more, changing the "weighted factors" used in calculating CPI statistics, so the results end up under-reporting the true inflation people experience in everyday living.

Econometrician John Williams maintains a website and publishes a newsletter devoted to tracking federal government manipulations of economic statistics.
Williams estimates that current Social Security payments are roughly half of what they should be if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index honestly. Many of the CPI manipulations were masterminded by Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1987 under President Reagan to 2006 under President George W. Bush.
Williams points out that one of Greenspan's manipulations of the CPI involved the consideration that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak. So, Greenspan argued, the inflation measure should reflect the costs of buying hamburger, not steak. :blink::(
 
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Hey KarCrazy,
I thought you'ld enjoy the video, and really glad to hear you did. A great video! Know also, I'll keep you & family in my prayers! Real power, not just sentiment! ;)

Since I'm posting, I mght as well post a picture I found, for kicks.
- Think it pretty well sums up current market situation - taking a breather, but watch out, definitely not down or out!:)
View attachment 3622
 
hessian said:
Econometrician John Williams maintains a website and publishes a newsletter devoted to tracking federal government manipulations of economic statistics.
Williams estimates that current Social Security payments are roughly half of what they should be if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index honestly. Many of the CPI manipulations were masterminded by Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from 1987 under President Reagan to 2006 under President George W. Bush.
Williams points out that one of Greenspan's manipulations of the CPI involved the consideration that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak. So, Greenspan argued, the inflation measure should reflect the costs of buying hamburger, not steak. :blink::(
Click to expand...

I'd appreciate it if they added hamburger to the list of goods.
 
Hey All,
I thought I'd provide some basic terms, that I had to seek out myself for "opex weeks" - primarily for new folks, maybe not familiar with this particular week's subtle odddies -:rolleyes:
Suggest, become familiar with opex week terms -more knowledgeable folks, please feel free to add any freaky names missed (& forgive me for any misses):

Ok, first common daily name in an opex week, is one known as:
-Manic Monday (OK, not alot new here - at least recently!)
But then there's -"Black Tuesday" or also heard term "Trash-Day Tues."
Then there's my personal fav's:
-"Whipsaw Wednesday," also referred to as "Wacky Wednesday", "Bizzaro Wed", or "Wallop Wed"...
Then there's:
-"Plunger Thursday!"
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/07/plunger-thursday.html
Or, also sometimes called: -"Let's Get It Over With Thursday"
Finally, we have what's commonly referred to as:
- "OPEX Friday, or "Freaky Friday" - this is typically the actual expirations day, usually "Triple Witching' or sometimes its "Quadruple Witching."
The latter terms are NOT meant to be scary as they sound, necessarily.
I just learned to enjoy all the terms above & wanted share them - to point out these - as they are good to learn/good to understand as best best as you possibly can! - recommend "google"-up some other sources, & learn what happens opex week - what its about (it does happen once a month, typically the 3rd Friday/third week every month! -so learning what this week is about is important to trading.
Enjoy and GL trading, all!
VR ;)
 
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Hey all,
Well tomorrow is Whipsaw Wednesday. Not sure, but IMHO, something feels like this one might be a wild one -maybe it was the subdued day today/light volume - something. The feel is just "in-the-air" that a wild ride is brewing.
Personally, I'm just fine watching from the sidelines!
- I can do without the anxiety/nervous tension, plus CP is paramount for me as my desired age for retirement isn't far off -hopefully!).
GL to all. :):)
 
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hessian said:
Hey all,
Well tomorrow is Whipsaw Wednesday. Not sure, but IMHO, something feels like this one might be a wild one -maybe it was the subdued day today/light volume - something. The feel is just "in-the-air" that a wild ride is brewing.
Personally, I'm just fine watching from the sidelines!
- I can do without the anxiety/nervous tension, plus CP is paramount for me as my desired age for retirement isn't far off -hopefully!).
GL to all. :):)
Click to expand...
I had made my mind to get out for tomorrow but couldn't make up my mind on the "G" or the "F", so looking at the CPI---------the last time wasn't so bad, but-----------what if it's a surprise and their stupid method of calculating the CPI and PPI does it's thing and up she goes? My brain couldn't take anymore so I'm still in 100%. Hit me where it hurts, I can take it!!View attachment 3874
 
Well Hesh..I hate to say I'm influenced by fear but I'd be a liar if I didn't..so...given those interesting name choices to pick from...the best day sounds like Manic Monday...so I'm out for the rest of the week..:D:D:D

GL

FS
 
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