hessian's Account Talk

[airlift]

This doesn't seem to be a simple coincidence. Perhaps an early-bird convenient warning was spread among the big boys, even though insider trading is illegal...?? Maybe going to the F fund for Monday will be the right decision (unless the CNBC bail-out rumor happens to be true).

I found it interesting the action in the 10yr. Seems that 'someone' knew 'something' as there was a decided move around 12:45pm ET

 

[hessian]

Interesting, re: the 10yr Notes -I'm not up on Treasuries to give a good/qualified answer, but will say this.... it could be that there was some info that leaked, if so, the Bond guys are sharp, & know that bail-outs = writedowns, therefore bad for Bonds! Stock traders, I think generally, may be less quick in understanding that write-downs will hurt equities as well, but they now have the weekend for this to "sink-in." It may help resolve uncertainty though -so the jury's is still out on this! All IMHO.

On a completely different note: a trust-worthy source, reliable, but that I cannot divulge, as only for "deep-background," relayed the following:
"...the news was released very late on a Friday when few remained to trade. It was a low volume pop that was probably embraced more as a trade rather than any big money buying into it. Plus, there was some short covering profit taking going on.
That said, we could see some follow through Monday morning but as we have seen, what happens in the morning is not how the day ends up. There's a big schedule of economic data next week so I'll watch for the rallies to be sold again."

Bottomline, I personally don't trust the market with all the data coming out next week.
Best wishes & GL to all.

 

[hessian]

After today, it now seems the question is, NOT whether, but HOW FAR? -How much farther South will we go??
Beyond a possible DCB monday morn', I have a few observations on this question (based in part on what "Oscar's" videos have showed us over the last couple days -link below):

1) In Oscar's S&P analysis, he showed us his "parabolic SAR" analyses -showing us the 4 points, below, between spikes) -the last 2 times - and his analysis - spot on - that concluded we should expect today to see this reversal again today (3rd time)! Again, he was SPOT ON! - He also showed us that BIG drops then follow -noting the resultant SAR points that then appear overhead -denoting the drops!

I observed that, today, as a result, a new parabolic SAR point appeared -overhead of today's red candlestick! -And looking back at the the 2 previous occurances, this appears to suggest there could be another large downtrend beginning (as new SAR points are now appearing overhead). :worried:

2) Another of Oscar's favorite technical indicators is Dow Transports -thee $TRAN chart (which today also seems to confirm much farther down is now possible! But I also suggest, take a look at the $NYAD chart below -and again especially note, the new bearish parabolic SAR point that appeared today above in this chart.

I think the chart below is fairly self-explanatory, and also seems to confirm all above as well. :blink:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NY...d=p55192775979
(chart originally courtesy of Birchtree, FYI!)

Oscar's video: 2/29/08
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=U2t4quW6MAg

 

[Show-me]

Oscar has been HOT! I hope he has a webinar this weekend.

 

[Bullitt]

After today, it now seems the question is, NOT whether, but HOW FAR? -How much farther South will we go??

Dow Transports(which today also seems to confirm much farther down is now possible!)

For every buyer there's a seller and here comes the pullback/retest/double bottom.

Dow Transports have about 9% farther to fall in order to test the lows but the Dow Industrials only has about 2% to go. Only one of the two need to hold the line while both will eventually need to make new highs for a new bullish confirmation.

Keep the faith Hessian, once again, the biggest fund outflows are happening at precisely the wrong time.

 

[Tomncath]

The TNX/MACD sure makes a case for moving to the F Fund while waiting confirmation there is more downside. PROBLEM - AMBAC. Thoughts?

 

[hessian]

The TNX/MACD sure makes a case for moving to the F Fund while waiting confirmation there is more downside. PROBLEM - AMBAC. Thoughts?

Hi Tomncath,
First, welcome and please recognize, that I consider myself new at all this still. I've been learning now for ~6 mo., and as a result, I'm still first to admit that I'm not comfortable advising others - I just present facts as I see them. That said, as Show-me pointed out, 350z is IMO also, the best souce for info in Bonds, TNX, F-Fund and such info.
Personnally, though I am thinking of placing majority in the F-Fund for Monday - but I will be checking -hoping to hear from 350z on this -if it's still wise at this time -given his opinion that if bail-outs of Bond Insurers occur, this would be bad for the F.

Otherwise, I'm sticking with my plan (& TSP Board's BS limits), which is, I plan to also start dollar-cost-averaging some small amounts into stocks (emphasis on "small amounts"), very soon it seems, perhaps even as soon as Monday.

To your other question, re: AMBAC (expect your question relates also to MBIA, etc). Its anybody's guess right now. Again best source, IMO is 350z, he showed us this issue first, and continues vigilence & advice in his posts. Basically, he's said any bail-out will also be bad for stocks as well (will involve major writedowns). You also heard Chairman Ben himself, saying that: "many Banks will likely fail/go under" - and personally, I think you gotta take his words as likely an understatement of the facts!

IMO, patience will win in the end. Stay frosty, watchful and agile -in the current market, oppportunities, or big losses, can come quick (as this current market can "turn on a dime").
Other factors can also quickly change the market picture, such as: if the PPT actually gets in gear, plus other unforseen factors, or the like of major institutional moves. Currently its like the wild, wild, west -only this time, its financial.
To quote 350z "at least the issues are contained - to the earth!"
VR

 

[Tomncath]

Thanks VR. I pulled this from his thread about the TNX/MACD...just thought I'd get your take and others on your thread...trying to balance it all out. Heck, in the interest of hearing from both sides I don't even mind hearing from Birch ...no offense Birch, who loves ya baby

 

[hessian]

Thanks VR. I pulled this from his thread about the TNX/MACD...just thought I'd get your take and others on your thread...trying to balance it all out. Heck, in the interest of hearing from both sides I don't even mind hearing from Birch ...no offense Birch, who loves ya baby

Hey Tomncath,
Smart! I'm basically doing all same that you are. I'm NOT a bear, nor a permabull, just a seeker of truth & wisdom -like you I assume. If you find the holy grail/unravel the great mystery, be sure and let me know friend, OK??!!
VR

 

[Birchtree]

I never go near the F fund - too spooky for my taste and very short term oriented.

 

[hessian]

I never go near the F fund - too spooky for my taste and very short term oriented.

Thanks Birch, to be honest, F has always given me the heebe-geebes also. Stocks are now coming closer into the range that I was hoping for, so that may be the better move, very soon. Finally, now coming closer, within sight (& maybe still able to maintain TSP's BS 3 IFT/mo limit).
Much Thanks
VR

 

[Tomncath]

Thanks guys, and Birch, I do honestly value your input. Everyone here puts balance on the issues. The bigggest problem I have is thinking within a 3 IFT limit when none of us here except Birch is use to this concept.

 

[hessian]

test...

 

[BIGBULLY]

I never go near the F fund - too spooky for my taste and very short term oriented.

Hey Birch,

Please tell me if um crossing the line...but,...now, now, the F fund is not all that bad in times like these...eh??? - BIGBULLY!!

 

[hessian]

Hey Birch,
Please tell me if um crossing the line...but,...now, now, the F fund is not all that bad in times like these...eh??? - BIGBULLY!!

Hey BigBull-y,
I'll answer that one. Playing in the F-Fund is much like playing in the stock funds (C, S, I) - you can lose as well as win - and therefore there is better times than others be in it! Uncertainty over the Bond Insurers, plus a plethera of other more normal factors, had it a too hot to play for awhile. Now however some of the factors are looking better - but I agree with Birch its really, and in some ways, more complicated to understand what drives it, and therefore how to predict, therefore never one I ever cared for much either.

- Recomend 1st read backwards a couple weeks in "The F-Fund" thread - as background info.

- Then also do the same in 350ZCommTech's AcctTalk thread - here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=153497#post153497

Only then will you begin to understand some of the main issues, and risks, even now while some folks are now considering to move into it (maybe partial move, anyway), but its never without risk (and needs to be "played" just like any of C, S, I).:blink:
VR
and Good Luck!!
PS -- "G" is the only safe/no-risk Fund.

 

[hessian]

test2

"...a man comes on the TV - telling me more useless information..."
(The guy in the red pants, reminds me of the whipsaw its been all year!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvcuaJy9OwI

CvcuaJy9OwI[IMG][/COLOR][/COLOR][/FONT][/U]
[U][FONT=Arial][COLOR=#800080][COLOR=#22229c][URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvcuaJy9OwI"]CvcuaJy9OwI[/URL][/COLOR][/COLOR][/FONT][/U]

 

[nnuut]

Let me try:



Just insert the part of the link after the = sign in between the Utube brackets and it will work.
CvcuaJy9OwI

 

[hessian]

test 3

CvcuaJy9OwI

 

[hessian]

duh!

CvcuaJy9OwI

 

[nnuut]

Go to reply click on the "Tube" icon, paste your link in between the two bracket sets, delete everything in the link except the part of it after the = sign.:laugh: