hessian's Account Talk

[hessian]

Hi All,
Well, I finally started my own Account Talk Thread (and now I'll also be "AutoTracked" for 2008). My AcctTalk/forum philosophpy is its open!

As many of you already may be familiar, from postings I've made in many accounts, you already know that I enjoy focusing on technical analyses. I want to learn all I can -as issues that can help in my, and our collective, decision-making. I consider myself like a sponge (no spongeBob similarity, or jokes please!). :toung:

I'll also mention that enjoy, and invite humor, especially dry & witty, and love those animated .gifs like what 12% and Nnuut often post -and the short videos I've seen posted too!

My main focus is learning & watching for short- and intermediate-term market trends to gain any predictive analysis techniques that can help with position trades (but I also recognize that many of these trends, often occur within the larger/longer timeframes, so I'm in no way adverse to hearing those perspectives/analyses). Figures, drawings, & weblinks, can help illustrate issues.

Anyway, enough for now.
Merry Christmas and best wishes for a happy New Year!
- (and for an especially prosperous one, as well!)
VR

 

[Show-me]

Good luck! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you also!

 

[hessian]

I'll kickoff my new forum with some ugly looking charts. Also some tlink to some relevant charts and general thoughts - (may be useful for considertion going into next week): :suspicious:

1st: The p&f chart for the Russell 2K Small Caps is ugly looking:
View attachment 2934
Here a link to the Russell 2K price chart, http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979
- you can see here huge gap in the price chart that MAY NEED to be filled!!
(PS at bottom of each of any price chart, note there's always a button, to that chart's specific, "Point & Figure Chart.")

2nd, see the NASDAQ price chart, at link below - notice it also has a rather large gap there, that's sure looking like it MAY NEED to be filled rather soon, too! http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979

Now, as these aren't directly "our Funds," they only indirectly might give an indication/clue as to the short-term direction, of the broader market. The Dow isn't looking very good either (but at least no huge looming gaps). http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979

Again, I'm not intending to post advice - just purely FYI, for consideration, and hopefully to get some discussion started.
VR

 

[airlift]

Re: TSP Transfer Fees and/or Transaction Limit Discussion
Hessian,

I do not have any other address. Guys, it seems that Mr. David Rostker of OMB has given instructions to reject some of our incoming e-mail.

I can assure you that I was able to receive a return receipt, but Hessian coul not. Below you can see the automatic return receipt I got last Saturday:


"The original message was received at Sat, 29 Dec 2007 10:47:46 GMT from smtp.vzwmail.net [66.174.76.25]

----- The following addresses had successful delivery notifications ----- <David_Rostker@omb.eop.gov> (relayed to non-DSN-aware mailer)

----- Transcript of session follows ----- <David_Rostker@omb.eop.gov>... relayed; expect no further notifications"


Does anyone else have a clue why, or to the intentions of not allowing an electronic return receipt?

 

[James48843]

Re: TSP Transfer Fees and/or Transaction Limit Discussion
Hessian,

I do not have any other address. Guys, it seems that Mr. David Rostker of OMB has given instructions to reject some of our incoming e-mail.

I can assure you that I was able to receive a return receipt, but Hessian coul not. Below you can see the automatic return receipt I got last Saturday:


"The original message was received at Sat, 29 Dec 2007 10:47:46 GMT from smtp.vzwmail.net [66.174.76.25]

----- The following addresses had successful delivery notifications ----- <David_Rostker@omb.eop.gov> (relayed to non-DSN-aware mailer)

----- Transcript of session follows ----- <David_Rostker@omb.eop.gov>... relayed; expect no further notifications"


Does anyone else have a clue why, or to the intentions of not allowing an electronic return receipt?

Maybe his mailbox is full.....:cheesy:

 

[hessian]

Ho James!, re: Airlift, thanks for trying. Let me know if you find anywhere else I can email it to in the future. I'll try to send again later. Iwant to help!

Hessian,
The S-Fund tracks the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion Index. Why not chart that one instead of the Russell 2k?

Paladin, I put up the Russell 2K for precisely the reason you brought up. To me, I look at it as a 2nd check for what is going on with for the Small caps. As a result, the charts are similar, but different, therefore kind of like getting a 2nd opinion from a doctor - just for comparison.

Other charts provided I also just use to give me a view/clue of what's going on in broader market.

The primary that I use, the S-Fund chart is here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979

Click button, here: for this morning's new "S" p&f chart - it was ugly, & just got worse this morning!

PS I am wondering if today may be a 1-day "fill the gaps" wonder -maybe fill those gaps intraday (on those other charts, like the Russell 2K). I'm watching for an up move later
- as a result, hoping, we might even finish green if this occurs!?? :suspicious: :nuts:

 

[hessian]

PS I'd hoped for today to be a 1-day "fill the gaps" wonder -maybe fill those gaps intraday (on those other charts, like the Russell 2K). I'm watching for an up move later
- as a result, hoping, we might even finish green if this occurs!?? :suspicious: :nuts:

I need to clarify above - The gaps in the charts I showed yesterday was the reason I thought today might start out going down. The Russell 2k actually did fill its gap. I think the NASDAQ gap got filled too (it looks like it got within 3 or 4 points which should be good enough).
Now, I personally have mixed feelings whether I'm hoping for a green closing today - because I just bought 20S, 80I for COB today, so low closes today would be best for me personally.

I am working this as a short position, so I am hoping for "BIG GREEN" days, Wed, Thurs, & Friday - to likely bail then. I'm hoping for seasonality, a re-newed "Santa rallly (and for continued Dollar freefall (Fri. it broke its 50d EMA) - but just for a week, maybe 2. But I will watch the latter closely, and adjust my allocation when the Dollar's strength returns, which I expect, then moving more to S & C.

 

[hessian]

Hey folks,
350z, just informed me that on SharpCharts, I should have used $NDX for the Nasdaq 100 Index - not ("NASDAQ Composite"-$COMPQ) as the correct symbol. Well, at least I continue to learn, and I promise I'll try to be more careful in future.

Apparently different sources have different lookup symbols for the same Funds/Indexes (often seeming right, but incorrect!). To illustrate, how confusing it can be, go to this SharpCharts link... http://stockcharts.com/symsearch?nasdaq . At the top, in its search for "Symbol Lookup" & "NASDAQ", I got 79 hits!!!
This is just FYI - now my recommendation is to ask someone "in-the-know"!
Again apologies.:embarrest:
VR
___________________________________________
Ability to admit mistakes, is part of integrity

 

[hessian]

View attachment 2978
test..

 

[hessian]

I'm standing by the technical analyses today,
I'm in "F", but I've been wondering also if there's a chance for recovery in any of C, S, I for Monday/Tuesday. Or, even if we're near bottoms yet - to buy in?
Link posted by Vectorman yesterday I think said it well:
http://stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Poolman's videos been saying alot of same lately also.

Personally, I just don't see anything that would be the news for me to think were even near bottoms yet. Most technical resistances broke - VERY few holding. And something needs to pull sentiment out of the gutter, too! The "I" chart is maybe the only one that is so-so, IMHO - but you know the "I" largely follows USMs - so what news here in the US could possibly turn this around?

Speaking of the technicals, look at any, but particularly the at the S&P500 chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SP...d=p55192775979
AND, at bottom, of these charts > click the box

to see this S&P500's p&f chart - its ugly (as are the other funds)!
The "S" here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979
today went past the mid-Nov low (broke this major support).

My point is, I think we might just be looking toward re-visiting those mid-August lows, Remaing on the sidelines, for awhile in F, and eventually G, sounds most reasonable/rational to me, unless and until we reach bottoms In the meantime I'll be bottom-fishing (DCAing-in), I expect for quite awhile (maybe even a couple months) as the bottoms come into closer focus. For me, as they say "its the technicals that always tell the truth." Good luck & best wishes to all!
VR

 

[Corepuncher]

I'm standing by the technical analyses today,
I'm in "F", but I've been wondering also if there's a chance for recovery in any of C, S, I for Monday/Tuesday. Or, even if we're near bottoms yet - to buy in? Personally, I just don't see anything that would be the news for me to think were even near bottoms yet. Most technical resistances broke - VERY few holding. And something needs to pull sentiment out of the gutter, too!

I agree that we are not at the bottom. However, I still wanted to get in the game so went 50% in today C and I. I'm fairly nervous about it though. If we do rebound, and make another "lower high" (below 1480 or so), I'll probably sell again at that point. We broke 400-500 new lows today....that is BEARISH!

 

[hessian]

TSP Talk Forums > Miscellaneous Stuff > TSP Trading Limits >
Re: Now this really ticks me off
-Forgive me for this repeat post, but I felt it bears widest possible review & distinction:
VR

It would be great if we could educate Mr. Smith (FedSmith.com). Then he, in turn, could provide at least a rudimentary explanation of what the different types of Investing are.

Spaf explained this well today in Griffin's AcctTalk:
- "There are several type of [Investment] trades: Position, Swing, and Day."
[For those that made such ignorant comments, Mr. Smith should explain for them - that we ARE NOT:

"Day Traders! [These folks] take on the most risk, trade as a full-time business, and trade [intra-day]". They never hold a position in a security overnight!"

Our efforts, by comparison: try to secure optimal Positions, or Allocations / mix of Funds (often by a dollar-cost-averaging investing) - in hopes to maximize our Account's profit is all.

[Quote:]
Originally Posted by anidoc
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, DO NOT CALL INTERFUND TRANSFERS - DAY TRADING!

Thanks to all for pointing out this very important distinction!

 

[hessian]

Well, suppose we have to occasionally post in our own "Acct Talk" threads to keep 'em active.

This weekend I reviewed alot of analyses, charts, etc., and basically ran full gambit of personal sentiment, from going all-in, to full bail, and just about every position in between. Sound familiar?
I think alot were in the same boat especially after Fiday's (maybe surprise) rise.

Anyway, 1st, I must qualify, I don't desire for this to be advice, or suggest anyone to follow - just rambling here on my thoughts is all!
That said, today I decided to bail to 99% G / to lock-in profits & Capital Preservation.
Reasoning: Primarily -I'm more confused now than ever, especially now with the way market is so volatile. -Now I do not consider myself a follower -I research, listen to advice, but I've learned that after all is taken in, I have to follow my own reasoning.
Right now, even though we got those big rate cuts, talk today is "heated up" about those bond insurers, with their ratings being downgraded (and concern is this could spread like brushfire).

Today we may finish higher -actually I hope we do. We may even go higher for a bit more, but, risk/reward -there is heavy resistance ahead, and basically I think profit taking is going step in before too long.

Oh, and why bail 99% to "G" - what about that other 1%? - I tossed that 1% at L-Income (1st time ever). Why?
-maybe it will qualify as an "account rebalancing" IFT?
- Mostly just hoping to "erk" the TSP Board.

PS, IFT #1 for Feb.Also, #1 IFT for Feb.

 

[nnuut]

Hessian I know exactly how you feel, nobody Really Knows how the market is going to react, I'm in for another day, thinking that if it loses some today (can't change that) tomorrow may bounce back. If we start to trend down I'm out, but one day does not make a trend.
The limits on IFTs are effecting my moves, so far I haven't moved in Feburary, that leaves me 2 and a move to the "G". I think the market will probably have a hard time getting by the 1425 (S&P) or the 50 DMA, today is just profit taking!:worried:

 

[Birchtree]

"Looking ahead my view against the bear case is corroborated by extremely bearish sentiment on the Street, which would tend to prevent huge declines, and the DJ Transports, which have rallied off of a three-wave decline, suggesting impulsiveness to the upside. Another week is now history and the bear case is looking worse for it. Not that the market can't go down from here, but if it does, it won't be the impulsive 3rd wave for which so many have been waiting and waiting and waiting."

http://safehaven.com/article-9500.htm

 

[hessian]

"Looking ahead my view against the bear case is corroborated by extremely bearish sentiment on the Street, which would tend to prevent huge declines, and the DJ Transports, which have rallied off of a three-wave decline, suggesting impulsiveness to the upside. Another week is now history and the bear case is looking worse for it. Not that the market can't go down from here, but if it does, it won't be the impulsive 3rd wave for which so many have been waiting and waiting and waiting."
http://safehaven.com/article-9500.htm

Thanks Birch,
Appreciate your keeping me in mind. I do think we are at a pivot point here, and I'm just needing to see how next coulpe days play out... If there's a couple day rally - will it be solld off? If there's a couple day drop, will it be bought back/move higher? Today's OSM action is likely due to the 2 banks being bailed-out/bought, and this buying to me seems more like cherry-picking. The broader-OSMs followed, I feel, based on this, but will it last?

Still much uncertainty to go yet with liquidity issues (so this day's OSM-phenom may yet prove temporary). US Banks, & Bond Insurer issues, however have no similar resolution, yet, so our fate on this is still very uncertain -and markets don't like uncertainty. I am not however, simply ignoring, or discounting, the potential positives, such as those you point out.
- I just desire to be more certain, and at this moment, there's just too many mixed, conflicting signals.
I lost alot in Dec, being too quick in rushing-in (chalk it up to learning), but I'm also getting too close to retirement to continue risky moves. I just want to see what happens the next couple days.
If TSP wouldn't have limited my IFT-moves, I would likely be taking small "bites" now, as I used to do, to dollar-cost-average-in! Unfortunately, now we are being forced into taking huge, risky, critically-timed mouthfulls!! :worried: [Not comfortable with this yet either!]

Thanks for pointing out there are positives though, and know that I am also watching those closely, as well!
VR

 

[hessian]

Well, no mystery what was behind today's last 1/2 hour anomally.
Very clear, again, it was the "Financials." Nuf, said...

Just to sum up my impresion on today's activity, I offer the following:
"Break Affirmation"
"Well, the last part of the day was insane, so I feel compelled to comment.
At 3:30 EST, the market exploded higher. It took only 30 minutes to "erase" the prior six hours of selling. So a Dow that was in the red by triple digits found itself in the green by triple digits. Again, all in just 30 minutes. The Dow ended the day up nearly 100 points after spending most of the day in bearish bliss.
Although I hate to see profits whither away so quickly, I feel good about three things:

1. I trimmed by index positions by half (as I mentioned in the comments section in real time) while we were near the day's lows.
2. I bought IWM puts during the bounce when the IWM was at about 69.40. It's a relatively small position, but it was my way of taking advantage of the micro-bounce.
3. Most important of all, this bounce merely makes stronger my belief in the "broken wedge." Bears, look on the bright side: it only took us 30 minutes to get this retracement out of the way.

"Wedgie"
"In my estimation, the triangle is now broken and we can start to get serious again."
View attachment 3362
from http://www.slopeofhope.com/ (Feb. 22, 2008)

 

[Show-me]

Roflmao

 

[Bullitt]

I do think we are at a pivot point here, and I'm just needing to see how next couple days play out... If there's a couple day rally - will it be solld off? If there's a couple day drop, will it be bought back/move higher? Will it last?

Like that quote in the movie 'Risky Business' when Tom Cruise's friend is trying to talk him into having a house party while his parents are away.

Sometimes you've just gotta say, 'What the....'

 

[weatherweenie]

Well, no mystery what was behind today's last 1/2 hour anomally.
Very clear, again, it was the "Financials." Nuf, said...

Just to sum up my impresion on today's activity, I offer the following:
"Break Affirmation"
"Well, the last part of the day was insane, so I feel compelled to comment.
At 3:30 EST, the market exploded higher. It took only 30 minutes to "erase" the prior six hours of selling. So a Dow that was in the red by triple digits found itself in the green by triple digits. Again, all in just 30 minutes. The Dow ended the day up nearly 100 points after spending most of the day in bearish bliss.
Although I hate to see profits whither away so quickly, I feel good about three things:

1. I trimmed by index positions by half (as I mentioned in the comments section in real time) while we were near the day's lows.
2. I bought IWM puts during the bounce when the IWM was at about 69.40. It's a relatively small position, but it was my way of taking advantage of the micro-bounce.
3. Most important of all, this bounce merely makes stronger my belief in the "broken wedge." Bears, look on the bright side: it only took us 30 minutes to get this retracement out of the way.

I found it interesting the action in the 10yr. Seems that 'someone' knew 'something' as there was a decided move around 12:45pm ET