04/29/26
Stocks moved lower on Tuesday after concerns over the AI earnings, giving tech stocks a haircut. They had been setting the pace higher recently and the losses bled over in to the other indices. Oil jumped over $100 a barrel at one point yesterday as the strife over the Strait of Hormuz ticked up a notch. Yields and the dollar were up helping put pressure on the stocks and bond markets.
The hiccup could be nerves ahead of a wave of big tech earnings, and today's FOMC meeting. After the closing bell today we get reports from: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). And on Thursday Apple (AAPL) reports.
The Fed meets today and we'll get their decision on interest rates at 2 PM ET. No one is expecting a change in rates at this meeting but perhaps some hints about futures interest rate moves. It is Jerome Powell's final meeting as the Fed Chair, so perhaps there could be some unpredictable commentary?
The market has come a long way in the last month with a couple of indices showing some wear and pulling back or showing signs of pulling back. The Transportation Index was down for a 5th straight day yesterday, and the Semiconductor Index fell hard yesterday after the Wall Street Journal article saying Open-AI missed its revenue goals.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is weighted heavily in big tech, so it took a hit early, but did a fairly good job of cutting the losses in half by the close. It is just one day off an all-time high so this is not really telling us anything yet, and the fact that it closed where it was about 8 days ago tells us there is some digesting of the recent gains going on. The question is, what happens when new highs meet the Magnificent 7 earnings, which have been getting priced to perfection and the WSJ says AI may not be meeting revenue goals?
The price of oil moved over $100 a barrel yesterday and settled just below it at 99.55. The news isn't confirming any peak here as the Strait of Hormuz rhetoric heated up yesterday, but this would be close to a completed right shoulder on the chart. The shoulder doesn't have to peak right here but this bearish head and shoulders pattern is now fully formed.
With so much at stake in the next two days with earnings and the Fed meeting, I'll finish my speculating and watch the show.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) pulled back again yesterday, closing at its lowest level since April 16th. It is trading within the old gap that was partially filled several days ago, but filling the gap near 2600 would probably be a relief for the bulls, so they can forget about it. The gap near 2500 may be open for a while, barring any major near-term geopolitical issues.
ACWX (I-fund) was down sharply again and is retesting that 20-day average, which holds up well in bullish markets, but obviously can be penetrated when there's trouble. As long as this one is above 72, the bulls are in charge.
BND (bonds / F-fund) continues to get squeezed within the walls of its narrowing wedge. It's all about oil, but today's Fed meeting could also shift sentiment on interest rates, which would move this chart.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks moved lower on Tuesday after concerns over the AI earnings, giving tech stocks a haircut. They had been setting the pace higher recently and the losses bled over in to the other indices. Oil jumped over $100 a barrel at one point yesterday as the strife over the Strait of Hormuz ticked up a notch. Yields and the dollar were up helping put pressure on the stocks and bond markets.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The hiccup could be nerves ahead of a wave of big tech earnings, and today's FOMC meeting. After the closing bell today we get reports from: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). And on Thursday Apple (AAPL) reports.
The Fed meets today and we'll get their decision on interest rates at 2 PM ET. No one is expecting a change in rates at this meeting but perhaps some hints about futures interest rate moves. It is Jerome Powell's final meeting as the Fed Chair, so perhaps there could be some unpredictable commentary?
The market has come a long way in the last month with a couple of indices showing some wear and pulling back or showing signs of pulling back. The Transportation Index was down for a 5th straight day yesterday, and the Semiconductor Index fell hard yesterday after the Wall Street Journal article saying Open-AI missed its revenue goals.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is weighted heavily in big tech, so it took a hit early, but did a fairly good job of cutting the losses in half by the close. It is just one day off an all-time high so this is not really telling us anything yet, and the fact that it closed where it was about 8 days ago tells us there is some digesting of the recent gains going on. The question is, what happens when new highs meet the Magnificent 7 earnings, which have been getting priced to perfection and the WSJ says AI may not be meeting revenue goals?
The price of oil moved over $100 a barrel yesterday and settled just below it at 99.55. The news isn't confirming any peak here as the Strait of Hormuz rhetoric heated up yesterday, but this would be close to a completed right shoulder on the chart. The shoulder doesn't have to peak right here but this bearish head and shoulders pattern is now fully formed.
With so much at stake in the next two days with earnings and the Fed meeting, I'll finish my speculating and watch the show.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) pulled back again yesterday, closing at its lowest level since April 16th. It is trading within the old gap that was partially filled several days ago, but filling the gap near 2600 would probably be a relief for the bulls, so they can forget about it. The gap near 2500 may be open for a while, barring any major near-term geopolitical issues.
ACWX (I-fund) was down sharply again and is retesting that 20-day average, which holds up well in bullish markets, but obviously can be penetrated when there's trouble. As long as this one is above 72, the bulls are in charge.
BND (bonds / F-fund) continues to get squeezed within the walls of its narrowing wedge. It's all about oil, but today's Fed meeting could also shift sentiment on interest rates, which would move this chart.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
