Gumby's Account Talk

[luv2read]

but on the other hand perhaps they have learned from the fed's mistakes that cutting rates and/or doing NOTHING is NOT the way to go. I think they will raise, they did before.

 

[Gumby]

I don't believe the ECB will raise rates - the strong euro is hurting their exports and slowing their economies. They are behind us and will eventually have the same problems we've been blessed with - and will be forced to hold their rates. I decided to buy some BCS today - please foregive my indulgences.

Birch
You are one heck of an investor. I wouldn't buy BCS just out of the principal of it...they make enough money holding our TSP money hostage. I would buy BSC...aka JPM before I would touch BCS.

 

[Gumby]

C Fund close 7/2/08 $14.65
A bounce up to 20 DMA would be a gain of +3.4%
A bounce up to 50 DMA would be a gain of +5.4%
Will this happen?......yes, eventually. The $64 question is when and if there is more room to drop before the bounce.

That graph looks like a black diamond ski slope:blink:

 

[Gumby]

I am not ready to hit the ........yet.


Just used my last IFT and went 100% due to ECB rate hike. Hopefully the I fund will trend up until the FED makes an emergency move to prop up the dollar. I don't think our FED will act unless oil goes over $150 bbl.

I really figured the dollar would be weaker after the ECB raised rates.
The month of July will prove to be interesting. I am along for the ride.

 

[Gumby]

I sure would have went 100% C today but I can only move to G fund from I fund since I already used my 2 IFT's for July. Thanks FRTIB for not letting me try and beat the indexes and ride your sinking ship. Also, a big thanks to you a$$holes for allowing me to postpone my retirement a few more years. I'll think about you ba$tards every day.
I look forward to the day I can retire and pull all of my $$$$ out of your dog and pony show and move the $$$$ to an account that I can manage.
end rant.

 

[Gumby]

SEC to limit shorting of Fannie, Freddie, brokers

Emergency order will try to protect struggling firms against 'naked shorting'

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={2B08DEE5-8D5F-47D6-A2D4-7DD5ECEE0D5B}


Here is a great comment:
So let me see...hmnnn the ones who started shorting others stocks and made fortunes on the backs of viable or tangible companies are now to be protected against their own strategy WTF I am pissed off This is like gov. endorsed larceny
- JonathanAlbert


I think it is more like steal from the poor and protect the rich. What a corrupt market we have. :worried:

 

[Birchtree]

You are way ahead of me on the tracker and you don't see me whinnying - try some patience young man. The October 2002 Dow low was 7286 - we are not going in that direction.

 

[Gumby]

You are way ahead of me on the tracker and you don't see me whinnying - try some patience young man. The October 2002 Dow low was 7286 - we are not going in that direction.

I am not "whinnying".....I am more like bitch, pi$$ing, and moaning.
I do have some patience......but no patience for FRTIB that change the rules of the game after the cards are dealt. All of the money that I have put in TSP are 100% my contribution since I get no match from Uncle....but now I can't even manage it the way I want to.

As far as the low of 2002 at 7286, I do remember my decade of buy and hold 100%C and riding the C fund down the swirling toilet. That was before the electronic IFT's and one had to mail in an IFT request by the 15th of the month to have it effective by the 1st of the following month. I was always concerned that I would miss the big rally push up so I never did an IFT the old fashioned way. The advent of daily share pricing and unlimited IFT's allowed for "hands on" management of the account.

The bears are not ready to hibernate yet.....still plenty of months left to take this market down before Winter. I do not think we have hit bottom yet and another 15% drop would not be out of the question. As some wise person said "Friends don't let friends buy and hold"

 

[Gumby]

SEC to limit shorting of Fannie, Freddie, brokers

Emergency order will try to protect struggling firms against 'naked shorting'

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={2B08DEE5-8D5F-47D6-A2D4-7DD5ECEE0D5B}

The more I think about this...the more it stinks. The rule doesn't appear to be to help Fannie and Freddie....heck the damage is already done. It appears this is a ploy to protect the remaining big names like Goldman, Merrill, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman. No doubt in my mind who runs the government. Do you think they have Ben's cell number?

 

[Silverbird]

Not really, shorting is the opposite of patient capital, and collects from hiccups in the stock; more like gambling than investment. Stocks are supposed to be a longer term investment since they are supposed to be equity for a company to use. Shorting doesn't produce any usable equity.

 

[nnuut]

Shorting, shorting? Who came up with that as a way of investing? It seems that should be a Las Vegas thing? How can you invest in a company and bet it will lose? Before I became involved in the Market I had no idea that you could do that kind of thing and MAKE MONEY in the market. GAMBLING? What the heck is that about?
Oh, I really don't need an explaination , I just want to know WHY!:worried:

 

[luv2read]

Well, everyone has been screaming for oil to come down so the dollar and market would "automatically" go up. They got their wish - but the dollar is still down and the market dropped even MORE. Just goes to show you what happens when a currency is debased. Even worse- it's based on the OIL standard.

 

[nnuut]

I think OIL dropped down today because Burntankle stressed the inflation thing today. Meaning that he will raise rates at the next meeting. Which, of course will lower Oil prices.
Who said that? I said that!View attachment 4279

 

[luv2read]

I think OIL dropped down today because Burntankle stressed the inflation thing today.

IMO this drop has very little to do with any of the factors in the headlines. It's more about the threat of regulating speculators. Cox restricted shorts on Fannie/Freddie and the primaries and let the cat out of the bag that a rule is pending to apply the same regulation across the board. That scared em into dumping their contracts while they could. Look at the timing of the drop and the announcement today.

This is just a momentary pullback in oil while the financials regroup - they and big oil are the biggest speculators in it. They've been lobbying Congress HARD to convince them it's all about supply/demand and that regulating specs would be a BAD thing - why would FINANCIALS lobby on THAT if bringing down the price of oil would HELP them? Have to keep the price below that $150 year-end target until November-December and it was escalating too fast. Today they dump the August contracts, bring the price down and reinvest the profit at a lower price on the September contracts, and help the dollar and WS a bit. Price will be creeping back up within 2 weeks. The goal is 100% increase 11/07-12/08 or $150 for 2008 end.

Next, wait for OPEC to announce production cuts because of low demand - that will bring the price right back up.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=171361&postcount=3554

 

[presskh]

Shorting, shorting? Who came up with that as a way of investing? It seems that should be a Las Vegas thing? How can you invest in a company and bet it will lose? Before I became involved in the Market I had no idea that you could do that kind of thing and MAKE MONEY in the market. GAMBLING? What the heck is that about?
Oh, I really don't need an explaination , I just want to know WHY!:worried:

Joe Kennedy got rich shorting the market at the start of the Great Depression. Also, as the Ambassador to England just prior to WWII, he shorted the market and subsequently made another bundle by publicly declaring that war was inevitable and that "democracy was essentially finished", which panicked the market and made it drop drastically.

Shorting the market has been going on for a long time, although I'm not sure that "naked" shorting has (magnifies the downdraft effect on a particluar stock).

 

[Guest2]

Shorting a stock is as risky as buying a stock. But in a Bear Market, isn't
it nice to think one can make money with the right call. You wouldn't be
hearing all of this crap about shorting in a Bull Market. But have someone
make money while everyone else is losing, the crap gets so high, you'll
need to call Waste Management just to lower the pile.

 

[luv2read]

Joe Kennedy got rich shorting the market at the start of the Great Depression. Also, as the Ambassador to England just prior to WWII, he shorted the market and subsequently made another bundle by publicly declaring that war was inevitable and that "democracy was essentially finished", which panicked the market and made it drop drastically.

Shorting the market has been going on for a long time, although I'm not sure that "naked" shorting has (magnifies the downdraft effect on a particluar stock).

Hmm...right before the Great Depression and WWII...and pumped BS...anything sound familiar here?

 

[Gumby]

Shorting a stock is as risky as buying a stock. But in a Bear Market, isn't
it nice to think one can make money with the right call. You wouldn't be
hearing all of this crap about shorting in a Bull Market. But have someone
make money while everyone else is losing, the crap gets so high, you'll
need to call Waste Management just to lower the pile.

Shorting, in theory, can be very risky because your losses are potentially unlimited. The brokerage that I used with would set a limit on the number of shares that could be "shorted" without the broker calling the main office to make sure they had enough shares of the stock "in house" to lend. You also have to pay back the dividends if the company pays out (ex-dividend) while you are short.

What happens when someone "naked shorts" a stock with a large sale and cannot locate the shares to borrow? How can the trade be settled and what kind of fines are levied if any. There is no doubt in my mind that 'shorts" can move a share price in a major way. Makes you wonder how many of the major players team up with a partner to "short" and "buy" between themselves.......then reverse positions when they see how the market reacts and moves.

 

[Gumby]

In Defense of SHORTS

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/16/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

I would say some shorts got squeezed today. As Birch would say "snort"

 

[Birchtree]

There are 18 billion shares out there short - this squeez could actually last several years. With all the capital available to be invested this could end up being the real deal rather than just a strong rally in a cyclical bear market. I'm in to win.