Gumby's Account Talk

[Gumby]

Hopefully the massaged numbers from the government will continue to give the market a little boost for a few days.
I jumped yesterday to 10C, 10S, and 80I for my last stock IFT for June.
Maybe a risky move......but what the heck....its only retirement money
I would like to get a quick 1 to 3 % gain and jump back to the lilly pad.


I am still holding a positive return for the year but the limits on re-balancing sure changes my way of managing my account. It appears that FTRIB thinks the L funds are for everyone. They maybe if you have a long enough time horizon. If they had an L fund that would short the C , S, and I.......I would buy into that one.

 

[Gumby]

I am still predicting the EAFE will have a higher % gain today than the S&P 500 or Wilshire 4500......but with the strong dollar the return to the I fund will be small. Hopefully, I will not lose today. The I needs to break its 5 day losing streak

 

[Gumby]

C & S finish on an upbeat note:

C
Index Value:1,360.02Trade Time:4:06PM ETChange:

20.15 (1.50%)


S
Index Value:624.90Trade Time:4:06PM ETChange:

10.10 (1.64%)


Looks like I fund may end its losing streak .....but didn't outperform C & S today unless we get huge mystery money from a FV

I

Last Trade:72.28Trade Time:3:47PM ET

0.46 (0.64%)



What a week!

 

[Gumby]

Here are some trends according to share price. S fund has the best looking chart.......maybe



The F fund is currently below both its 50 and 200 day MA.

The C fund is also below both, with the 50 and 200 day MAs reversed, which is a bearish signal in itself.

The I fund is also below both, with the 50 and 200 day MAs in danger of crossing.

The S fund is currently above both averages. They have also crossed, so that the 50 day is on top.

 

[Gumby]

$140+ oil has me spooked. Taking a few lumps and going from 10C, 10S, and 80I to the partial shade of the lilly pad at 40G, 10S, 50I.
Reload for next month. This is about the worst June I can remember.:worried:
Good luck everybody.

What are the odds of the FED making a interim rate hike of 0.5% to keep oil from going to $150?

 

[luv2read]

$140+ oil has me spooked. Taking a few lumps and going from 10C, 10S, and 80I to the partial shade of the lilly pad at 40G, 10S, 50I.
Reload for next month. This is about the worst June I can remember.:worried:
Good luck everybody.

What are the odds of the FED making a interim rate hike of 0.5% to keep oil from going to $150?

NIL, unless the GOP decides to use it as an election ploy. And it would be a temporary effect, if at all. They're not stopping until it's at $150 by the end of the year - look at the oil price chart and when the price started to rise. Congress can wave its arms and yell but the agencies will just put out whatever numbers that it takes to manipulate things the way big oil wants.

 

[Silverbird]

Interim? no, that would suggest that there is some crisis a la Bear Sterns. They may raise rates in September, which is for conspiracy theorists, before the election, though I think personally if things don't look better than they do now they will have to raise rates whether or not it looks good for the election.

 

[Gumby]

NIL, unless the GOP decides to use it as an election ploy. And it would be a temporary effect, if at all. They're not stopping until it's at $150 by the end of the year - look at the oil price chart and when the price started to rise. Congress can wave its arms and yell but the agencies will just put out whatever numbers that it takes to manipulate things the way big oil wants.

The weak dollar is killing us.....is there any other things good ol' Uncle Ben can do to strengthen the dollar other than raise interest rates...or is the FED mearly a puppet until the election? Has Ben got any majic wabbits left?

 

[Guest2]

Shhhhhhhhh, I'm Hunt'n Wabbit, Hahahahaha :nuts:

 

[Gumby]

S&P500 up to 1288.23......Are the big boys doing window shopping at the end of the quarter or are we in for a close in the red in the low 1270's?

 

[Gumby]

What a year so far


From Marketwatch:
S&P 500 down 12.9% year to date
S&P 500 down 3.3% for second quarter
S&P 500 index down 8.6% for month of June :worried:


DOW Industrials down 14.4% year to date
DOW Industrials down 10.2% for month of June
DOW Industrials down 7.4% for second quarter

 

[Birchtree]

You know, Bush could sell some of that oil in the strategic petroleum reserve that was purchased for way under $70/barrel - are we not in a national crisis yet? The Treasury and the G7 folks could start to purchase dollars - and I think that will be the next step. I see real estate in Manhattan is now being sold in euros and is being paid for in cash.

 

[Gumby]

You know, Bush could sell some of that oil in the strategic petroleum reserve that was purchased for way under $70/barrel - are we not in a national crisis yet?

That might work for deficit reduction.....but under the FAR clauses the contracting Officer would probably be required to load the oil onto tankers and ship it halfway around the world to Valdez and put it on the pipeline for refining.....you know to spread the wealth :nuts:
Big Oil is Bush's buddies.

Birch - I wish Bush would turn loose some of that stratigic oil. Just a token amount of it would probably shake the oil market lower. We are in a crisis but Bush does not seem to be doing anything about it. I doubt he worries about how much the jet fuel costs when they pull the pumper up to Air Force One.

 

[Gumby]

What day trader dreams about. To bad FRTIB won't let us pull the trigger and buy at the low. Oh, I forgot, Its not my money anymore. Barclays gets to keep the profits:nuts:

Index Value:1,278.43Trade Time:10:55AM ETChange:

1.57 (0.12%)Prev Close:1,280.00Open:1,276.68Day's Range:1267.02 - 1280.2852wk Range:1,256.98 - 1,576.09

 

[Gumby]

Looks like the EFA just took out the Feb and March closing lows of 2008. Have to go back all the way to September 2006 to find the same price. Almost 2 years of gains wiped out in I fund.:worried:
What a drop!!!
http://finance.google.com/finance?c...0&chdet=1214942400000&chddm=493442&q=NYSE:EFA&

 

[Guest2]

Wow, ugly !
Just think, the (I) Fund has to catch
up to the down side yet. Overpayments
must be paid to reflect their YTD %'s by
the end of the year. Yuk and more Yuk !

 

[Gumby]

Wow, ugly !
Just think, the (I) Fund has to catch
up to the down side yet. Overpayments
must be paid to reflect their YTD %'s by
the end of the year. Yuk and more Yuk !

Yes when the ink dries, long term buy and hold investors have been holding onto a falling knife. Looks like I am going to be riding the elevator down on this trip. I hope the knife doesn't cut the cable.:worried:

Rebalanced my account to 30C, 20S, 50I (COB 07/01/08) from 40G, 10S, 50I. I guess if I can't make money....I'll buy more on the cheap.

 

[luv2read]

I agree Gumby. ECB is expected to raise rates to control inflation, lots more sense than our FED. That will help the Euro and I Fund and kill the dollar.

 

[Gumby]

I agree Gumby. ECB is expected to raise rates to control inflation, lots more sense than our FED. That will help the Euro and I Fund and kill the dollar.

Coventional wisdom would indicate that to be true. I am hedging my bet and buying into C & S funds today. I just about went "100% I" .... but just couldn't make myself pull the trigger. I really think the "I fund" will turn around and maybe make a big run up if ECB does raise rates. Flip a coin on this one.
I can't help but wonder if Bernake will pull out a "majic wabbit" and raise Fed funds by 0.5 to 1.0% if ECB does raise rates. If you think the BSC scandal was crazy.....just wait and see what happens next.:blink:
If you think the markets were on a roller coaster today......just wait 'til Thursday.

 

[Birchtree]

I don't believe the ECB will raise rates - the strong euro is hurting their exports and slowing their economies. They are behind us and will eventually have the same problems we've been blessed with - and will be forced to hold their rates. I decided to buy some BCS today - please foregive my indulgences.