Gritz's Account Talk

On the 10th I posted here and in the C Fund thread a question concerning the 200 dma, which based on Tom's comments today, helped confirm what I was thinking or where I was going with the question. That is, based on historical information, once we crossed the 200 dma, it appears that until the 20 dma reaches or passes through the 200 dma we will continue to have downward pressure. Based on this recent push down/correction, we still have a little ways to go before the 20 dma and 200 dma meet, which (I think) means some more downward movement. Once the 200 dma is touched or crossed by the 20 dma, the market begins an upward climb, and as Tom pointed out, usually it has a pull back and then up, up and away. (May through July of 2006 look quite similar)

Of course, all that said, I am not a statistician, and I may be stating the obvious, but it helps me to spell it out. Also, the market can and will do whatever it pleases. I'm just trying to get an educated idea on what to expect based on past instances.

I will be taking some out of the market...just in case my thinking is right.

Good Fortune to all!
 
Not alot of time for analysis this am, but since the 20 and 200 dma on the SPX have now met, again based on historical patterns and current technicals, looks like we should have a day or two of upward momentum followed by a sideways move and a probable pull-back before the take-off up.

I'll probably play the OSMs for tomorrow based on a hope for a follow-through on todays action. Of course, who knows based on the market not opening until 3 pm est!!
 
Moving majority to G, as stated above I expect some mixed days of sideways and a pull back soon; not convinced it will be tomorrow, just playing things more conservative.
 
Based on the historical charts, we needed to retest the 200 simple dma before we could begin our renewed move up, which I think will begin next week; so, regrettably, today actually is good for us. One caution - there is the concern that we could further test the lows when we originally broke below the 200 simple dma in August (similar to June-August 2006), but still, historically we shot back up. So, it is really not a question should we buy, I believe yes we should, it is just a matter of all today or some today with the remainder buying in next week.

Again, kudos to Doc Faustus for his refining work - hope it pans out.

Good Fortune to all!
 
OK, erring on the side of the technicals and mainly caution (chicken??). Only going to commit 50% to stocks for now, plenty of time next week to apply the rest.
 
OK, we are now entering the testing waters that I saw as a concern, hope the s&p holds above 1425, probably closer to 1430 or better today, and then we should regain our climb up. Hopefully today's action is enough of a test; not totally convinced we are finished though and will redistribute my allocation without committing additional funds.
 
[Re: $SPX] The 20 simple dma has now crossed the 200 simple dma and yet remains below the 50 dma; if history stands and no unusual world events take place, I expect us to follow upward, probably similar to the Oct-Nov 2005 period even though at that time we were already over the 50 dma (sorry bad with pasting charts, one day soon I'll figure it out). I think we are out of the woods from the Jul-Aug pullback and should begin our climb to bigger and better profits, with an occasional rest. Now, all that said, I would like to see a definitive move by the $SPX above the 50 simple dma before I commit totally to stocks, and that day should be soon, hopefully next week - of course, still have that Fed issue, always something.
 
Re: the $SPX: Well, got that definitive move above the 50 dma (simple), was it too much too soon? I am bullish long-term but this move may have been too quick and changes my decision to be fully vested in stocks over the short term.

Again, looking historically at the charts and some technical patterns (stochastics and RSI) I think we will go sideways for a week, maybe two, with a final tendency downward to what should be the 20 dma (simple) around 1485 to 1495. I would prefer to continue upward but not sure over the next week or so that we will and it will be a matter of when to jump in and jump out, and with how much.

Many thanks to 12%, Ebb, Griffin, 350Z, Nnut, Tom, Wizard, EdtheFed, Chem, Robo, FS, WeatherW, and many others I'm failing to mention - all of your input has assisted me greatly, Thank you!
 
I'd comtemplate following fabijo if I were in your shoes. If his pronostication turns out to be correct you need to be in to win. At this point in the cycle don't look back over your shoulder - stay in front of the train. We just might be approaching the less publicized epicenter of an Elliott intermediate wave 3 - your head will spin.
 
Thanks Birch and Dell, two of whom I forgot to mention!

Sorry for the late reply and this will be short, got hit with some "walking pneumonia" thing late last week and still am fighting to get back some mental and physical strength - yea for the magic "Z-pack"!

I am ready for such a run as you Birch and Fabijo predict, just believe we will have a little consolidation first; I will be putting a small amount to work today in stocks, as I am being cautious. Later, and good fortune!
 
Been out for some time; just wanted to say thanks to Tom for his Market Commentary, thought today's was quite well said, and though I'm sure most read his comments, I'd recommend for those who skip reading it to give it a read today, it is brief and to the point. Thanks Tom!
 
Good hearing from you Gritz, it has been a long time. Come back more often. Tom does a great job on his commentaries.:D
Norman
 
Thanks Nut, hope to be around and involved more as things become a little more settled work-wise, regrettably out of my control; always enjoy your reads, thanks.
 
I'll be cautiously (tentative might be better word) sliding out of the G pond to the I fund in hopes that the US$ begins to hit a resistance level and holds or retraces some and that the Euro and world economy can pick up this week. Only moving 60%, and it will only be until the stochastic readings tell me it is beginning to push the limit (I am going with a quicker read during this Bear) or the end of this week looks suspect, whichever comes first.
 
OK if you haven't figured it out by now, if I go in you should head in the opposite direction...the way the week went I am now where I would consider jumping in were I on the sidelines where I belong. The stochastics look good for an entry point and the RSI is low, but as Tom and others have said and the market continues to live up to, it's a BEAR out there and the traditional methods might not apply. I'm hoping that the technical readings are close to being right and the market will respond accordingly and thus, instead of bail on such a down turn, I will stay where I am and hope the ride isn't too steep down but instead bounces or turns to recapture some of this loss (Monday I hope) -- what goes down has to come up, right...gotta stay optimistic
 
Happy New Year folks!! May it be a blessed and prosperous year for you all.

Been away for awhile and work no longer allows for posting and extremely limited viewing; thus, I get caught up a day late or more sometimes, but I still lurk and read, and should time ease up may begin posting here and there. PIP shows almost 5% gain this year, though not great by any means, it is positive and above my self imposed 4% minimum. Currently 85% G, 5% C and 15% I.

Again, have a happy and safe new year celebration!
 
Making a change from previous allocation of 80 G 5 C 15 I to 90 G and 10 I. Believe the dollar still has some fall left to go but the internationals may begin cooling; the move out of C is more based on chart alerts I use (primarily stochastics) plus January carries some baggage I'm not yet convinced the market can tote.

Have a blessed day and best of fortune to you all.
 
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