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Gritz's Account Talk
- Thread starter Gritz
- Start date
Emotions vs technicals - killing me!
Sitting on the sidelines is simply killing me, but looking at my technicals there was only a quick window (near the end of the year) to jump in for this move by mr. market, and though my emotions screamed get in there, the techs say to wait, there will be a rest, a lull, some sort of correction, BUT then again, maybe we are going into uncharted waters. For now I applaud the market's move and those who held in after the Santa rally (maybe delayed looking hindsight), kudos to ya'll .
All positions seem (technically) to say wait, so I shall resist the urge to follow my emotions and practice patience.....argh, please mr. market open the window and let me in!
Now Birch, I know would say get on in there, and MilkMan went to the I party where the USD looks to be gathering itself for a run and push the I down some for an entry point, may be time to put some into the I.....
Sitting on the sidelines is simply killing me, but looking at my technicals there was only a quick window (near the end of the year) to jump in for this move by mr. market, and though my emotions screamed get in there, the techs say to wait, there will be a rest, a lull, some sort of correction, BUT then again, maybe we are going into uncharted waters. For now I applaud the market's move and those who held in after the Santa rally (maybe delayed looking hindsight), kudos to ya'll .
All positions seem (technically) to say wait, so I shall resist the urge to follow my emotions and practice patience.....argh, please mr. market open the window and let me in!
Now Birch, I know would say get on in there, and MilkMan went to the I party where the USD looks to be gathering itself for a run and push the I down some for an entry point, may be time to put some into the I.....
Almost there....almost there....
Well, sitting in the G forest hasn't been too much fun while mr. market went to town, but things here in the woods of G land seem a little more comfy with the town folk all running around yelling the "tech" sky is falling, the "chip" sky is falling....of course we all know this is a healthy thing, and a long (for me) awaited pull back/consolidation as I eagerly await the chance to launch back into stocks...almost there, almost there....my technicals are beginning to look better But not just yet, have to be patient....argh.....for the s&p a dip to 1270 should do it but 1265 is not out of the question; the small caps, wilshire 4500, looks like 560 should do although appears to be support around 556; as for the bonds, can't justify jumping in at this point - might be near a top after todays action; and the infamous I Fund...well I'll just continue to trade vicariously through Mlk_Man, he seems to endure the pain better than I.
All the rambling to say, holding in the G until the sky is clear, Almost There!
Well, sitting in the G forest hasn't been too much fun while mr. market went to town, but things here in the woods of G land seem a little more comfy with the town folk all running around yelling the "tech" sky is falling, the "chip" sky is falling....of course we all know this is a healthy thing, and a long (for me) awaited pull back/consolidation as I eagerly await the chance to launch back into stocks...almost there, almost there....my technicals are beginning to look better But not just yet, have to be patient....argh.....for the s&p a dip to 1270 should do it but 1265 is not out of the question; the small caps, wilshire 4500, looks like 560 should do although appears to be support around 556; as for the bonds, can't justify jumping in at this point - might be near a top after todays action; and the infamous I Fund...well I'll just continue to trade vicariously through Mlk_Man, he seems to endure the pain better than I.
All the rambling to say, holding in the G until the sky is clear, Almost There!
hmmmm....
Thought the best way to be patient would be to stay away for a short while, and now it seems we are almost back where we started when I last posted on Jan 18, at least with the S&P. Then I was waiting for a pull back and we got it on the 20th but there was not a confirming conclusion to the down draft (I think Tom and others spoke to this as well), so I waited some more, only to watch the S&P move on up, but now the last two days we are back. Things look a little more promising to get back into stocks, and I agree with FundSurfer that the large caps should have plenty of room to move up, but there is caution here as it appears we may not hold the 1260ish mark, break the 50 day moving average and fall to the next support (1250?). Again though, this is good, well at least for those of us waiting to get back into the stock funds.
Still not convinced that the small caps wilshire is at its turning point as the technicals still look for a little more correction; then again, the S fund probably will bounce up Monday, but there is not enough there for me to jump in on.
The I still needs more rest (unless of course you are in it).
The F actually looks like it could move up some but these interest rate worries may keep it flat (never been real good figuring this fund out).
All to say, staying 100 G until Monday, hope to the the all powerful Penny and look to move into the S&P at or near that time.
Best to all.
Thought the best way to be patient would be to stay away for a short while, and now it seems we are almost back where we started when I last posted on Jan 18, at least with the S&P. Then I was waiting for a pull back and we got it on the 20th but there was not a confirming conclusion to the down draft (I think Tom and others spoke to this as well), so I waited some more, only to watch the S&P move on up, but now the last two days we are back. Things look a little more promising to get back into stocks, and I agree with FundSurfer that the large caps should have plenty of room to move up, but there is caution here as it appears we may not hold the 1260ish mark, break the 50 day moving average and fall to the next support (1250?). Again though, this is good, well at least for those of us waiting to get back into the stock funds.
Still not convinced that the small caps wilshire is at its turning point as the technicals still look for a little more correction; then again, the S fund probably will bounce up Monday, but there is not enough there for me to jump in on.
The I still needs more rest (unless of course you are in it).
The F actually looks like it could move up some but these interest rate worries may keep it flat (never been real good figuring this fund out).
All to say, staying 100 G until Monday, hope to the the all powerful Penny and look to move into the S&P at or near that time.
Best to all.
Most of my marks have been met or are close to being confirmed, would like a little more convincing move by the market, but probably will be moving out of the G today, now the question is how diversified. Still like the C over the long haul but the S looks as it should come up, even the I fund should post upward movement after today. A friend mentioned the Gap theory in regards to the I fund and that it needed to go down to fill a gap from late Dec or early Jan...I see the gap just not sure if the theory holds for the I fund (versus a singular stock).
Anyway, good fortune to all.
Mike
Anyway, good fortune to all.
Mike
break time then back to stocks
not real excited about moving out of S fund at the moment but my rule(s) say time to move due to the overall market not just the small caps; i.e. large caps should be taking a breather downward which will probably inhale the small caps as well. moving some to F based on "how much lower can they go without some upward resiliency/bounce" - some system huh
; at the first definitive/worthwhile/positive up tick i'll be moving out of F. Really hope the C rests enough to open the door for a full play, sonner than later.
good fortune to all!
just read FundSurfer's comments; obviously i concur, hope this isn't plagiarizing...i do have a system if you can call it such, well just in case someone takes exception i'll gladly source FundSurfer!
not real excited about moving out of S fund at the moment but my rule(s) say time to move due to the overall market not just the small caps; i.e. large caps should be taking a breather downward which will probably inhale the small caps as well. moving some to F based on "how much lower can they go without some upward resiliency/bounce" - some system huh
; at the first definitive/worthwhile/positive up tick i'll be moving out of F. Really hope the C rests enough to open the door for a full play, sonner than later.good fortune to all!
just read FundSurfer's comments; obviously i concur, hope this isn't plagiarizing...i do have a system if you can call it such, well just in case someone takes exception i'll gladly source FundSurfer!
Been gone and no way to change as I had hoped and planned; instead of jumping out of the F on an up note as I had wanted, now appears the best course is to go in 100% and look to pull a rabbit out my hat :worried: ; looking for a point to join the stocks (should've stayed in S - should've, would've, could've....:blink: ).
Congrats to those of you enjoying the ride!
Good fortune to all,
mike
Congrats to those of you enjoying the ride!
Good fortune to all,
mike
sugarandspice
Well-known member
Re: Gritz Account
Use the thriftline to make your changes if you can't e-mail. You can do it anytime if you have access to a phone. After you enter your SS# and PIN push #3 for interfund transfer. It will guide you thru the rest.
Use the thriftline to make your changes if you can't e-mail. You can do it anytime if you have access to a phone. After you enter your SS# and PIN push #3 for interfund transfer. It will guide you thru the rest.
Re: Gritz Account
you are right and appreciate the thought but regrettably, for the most part, when i'm away, no secure lines or even news (timely). anyway, i've really had a tough time of it and think i'll settle on a long term allocation to hold but may have to be aggressive to make up losses; enjoy your comments, thanks to both of you : )
you are right and appreciate the thought but regrettably, for the most part, when i'm away, no secure lines or even news (timely). anyway, i've really had a tough time of it and think i'll settle on a long term allocation to hold but may have to be aggressive to make up losses; enjoy your comments, thanks to both of you : )
so much for long term; while i have access and time, going to prevent complete bloodloss, korean issue may be overblown (no pun intended), but think the I fund will feel it the most until things stabilize; thus removing the I allocation, putting a little in the C and S and hope for a bounce, the rest going to G waiting for reentry (well, maybe that was intentional).
Well, should've moved yesterday, and yet this move today may only hold for a day or two based on the charts and techs I use (MAs, stoch's, and some seasonality); it's just nice to have time again to look at the charts and hopefully this time stick to my plan. Hope to move to I for remainder of year, but that will have to wait as the dollar looks to rebound and the I fund is at the high end of my readings.
Been nice readings all the posts for last several months I was out (although with Sugar's felt I needed to read a couple of times
), I enjoy and learn alot from this site and most contributors; special thanks to Tom for your efforts and to your legion of moderators and knowledgeable contributors 
!!
Good fortune to all!
Been nice readings all the posts for last several months I was out (although with Sugar's felt I needed to read a couple of times
), I enjoy and learn alot from this site and most contributors; special thanks to Tom for your efforts and to your legion of moderators and knowledgeable contributors !! Good fortune to all!
Wilshire 4500 touched the 20 day simple MA yesterday and has now broken through; this coupled with a system of following the fast and full stochastics has for me, signaled a quick buying opportunity. In the recent past this has been good for a move up in the S fund for the year end. The December 05 chart looks quite similar, and in 05 we bounced around below the 20 day MA until the first of the year and then, popped up. That said, there is always room for a further drop, but I'm hoping the time of year and a belief that the economic news is still good for stocks, I'll be moving to the S fund.
Happy Holidays to All!
Happy Holidays to All!
