Gritz's Account Talk

[Gritz]

going to stay with S one more day, hoping for a follow-on move up tomorrow; (probably should move to F with many others, but that fund just always seems to get the best of me).

 

[Gritz]

Staying a little too cool in the S, though positive past couple of days (so far anyway) didn't quite move up as I had hoped, running to the G cave for warming up.

 

[Gritz]

Hoped I'd get out with a couple of positive days from the ole
S fund, but the afternoon news turned things sour, well at least I'm out at the moment but will be going back in, slowly to the S and more to the "I" - only question/concern I have on the "I" is how will it react after the Monday holiday - charts point to a short term buy in S and "I" and that's what I'm going with. Hope everyone has a blessed holiday!

 

[Gritz]

Based on stochastics and hopeful for good bond news making a move to F, probably for only a day (this fund always seems to get the best of me); then should be back to the I.

 

[Gritz]

Well, got wrapped up in work and forgot the time yesterday and here I'm still in the F; though had I gotten out yesterday I would have still incurred the hurt put on by the F and based on things thus far, may not have faired much better in the I. Sooo...still looking at jumping to the I, but not convinced that the US markets negativity today won't drag down the internationals tomorrow. It'll be a last minute decision.

 

[Gritz]

So far things have turned out pretty well, hope the afternoon holds. Decided to move to the G for the weekend, I'm not convinced the internationals will pull out a positive for Monday regardless of the US markets, even though my charts show room to move up a little more in the I particularly with the dollar poised to move down, but it's close enough in my system to wait out the weekend.

 

[Gritz]

Going to take this one day gain and put it on the shelf, as I try to follow my system (and I use that term loosely). My charts put C, S, and I in the upper/overbought area; of course, the I may move up some more with carry over from the USM, but the system says to go to G and wait for a return below the overbought markers.

Like Fundsurfer's idea/theory, I'm just not brave enough.

Already said it in 350Z's thread, but I'd like to reiterate my thanks for his diligence and my regard for his opinions.

 

[Gritz]

If C and S continue and hold their mid-morning reversal (how I hate the noon deadline) then the "I" may benefit tomorrow; the USD's rise is what has me hesitating; may split the difference between G and I; charts say stay in G, greedy gut wants to jump to I.

 

[Gritz]

OK so the gut feeling was in anticipation of getting punched by the I (stay with the charts, stay with the charts); not sure the I will hold, may pull some or all out and flee to the G.

 

[Gritz]

too similar to May/June by the charts; trying to stay with the technicals, avoid my gut/desire....patience

 

[Gritz]

Charts for C, S, and I are well into overbought area and the market seems tired; would like to see a nice pause (pull back) for a better buying opportunity; I'll wait for the technicals to clean up and the market to take a breather...in the mean time, F is down in the oversold area (based on the Stochastics I follow) and should be poised for a move up tomorrow, maybe the week. I'll probably go to the F, but not for long as it seems to get the better of me more often than not.

 

[Gritz]

Going to take what the F will give today, too uncertain about reaction to the Fed minutes tomorrow. Just going to wait in G for another buying opportunity - charts really have stocks overbought.

 

[Gritz]

Out to training all day;hope the fed is kind and the markets pop, just not sure of the follow through for tomorrow and cannot monitor today; thus,to the harbor of G I go.

Good fortune all!

 

[Gritz]

Agree with Paladin, as confusion reigns, moving to a diversified allocation heavy IMO) on risk aversion: G 30 F 10 C 10 S 15 I 35

 

[Gritz]

Tried to submit changes on both internet and phone with negative results.

After submitting changes on thriftline @1050 and waiting on hold recording came on at 1053 saying unable to make changes at this time sorry for the inconvenience. The changes would have been G 10 F 10 C 15 S 20 I 45, just in case it does go through for documentation purposes here. What a bum system!

 

[Gritz]

Just got off the phone with TSP, they said it was hit or miss this morning; best she knew was the system was up for 5 or 10 minutes (during the hit or miss frame) and then back down, and still down. She said I should be able to make a transfer later this afternoon...I think I'll wait and see Monday's action first.

 

[Gritz]

Not sure where this market will land (based on what I read, no one else does either); anyway, need to go sit with my son during his knee surgery and I may not get a chance to monitor; so, I made a semi-defensive move, pulling out of the I and hoping for a rebound from the C and S. I may change this move if we get through with the surgery soon enough and monitoring warrants a change -- guess I'm on this rocket ride down for now. Good fortune all!

 

[Gritz]

In the words of Keith Jackson, "Whoa Nelly!!", just got back and settled from the boy's surgery (which went well!) and I'm thinking I'll need some of his Tylenol 3 after this week's action. Well, thankfully, it's not a sprint, so though a tumble will hurt, there should be plenty of time to recoup...now, pass the water so I can swallow that pill...

 

[Gritz]

Question for the statisticians and technical gurus: in looking back three years from today at the $SPX, on a daily chart, each time we crossed the 200 dma, we had to wait for the 20 dma to lower and cross (once I think the first time in 05 we barely touched) the 200 dma before we began our upward movement in the market. Is this a given /natural occurrence due to the drop through the 200 dma? If so it seems we would have several more days of downward movement before we start our climb back up -- just some thoughts, please enlighten me!

 

[Gritz]

Well, not sure the market is ready to resume the continuous upward trend, though I am bullish for the long-term, just seems we will go sideways for a few days, maybe a week or little more based on technicals. That said, agree with 12% and others that OSMs should follow through tomorrow, so I'll make at least a one day play, with some held in reserve.