Gritz's Account Talk

Gritz

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Apologize for not posting this sooner, work, go figure.... If allowed, a little history and then, a little help.

However, allow me first to say that it is enjoyable and enlightening toreadmost ofthe posts. The variety of knowledge, risk and humor displayed by the members is very healthy for those of us looking to make informed decisions, or not, and still keep a smile on our face, which is really needed when we miss a rally or stay for a dive!

History: been with the gov/tsp since 1987, which was going good until 9/11, ouch, got stung real bad. The ability to make the interfund changes the way we do currently is so much better than it use to be...30 days and wait and pray, no way to confidently make an educated guess for fund selection. I hope to permanently hit thelinks and fish'n holes in about 10 years, but depending on the growth of my account and of course, kids in college, and thanks to a job that has mandatory retirement age, I could leave sooner (based on yrs of service and min age). I would say I have a fairly moderate risk tolerance. I offer all this to give a better understanding of why/how I might make a move/change (of course, there is the oops factor to be considered as well).

Now for the help please, I welcome any and all input and particularly in trying to get a better grasp to tsp's way of figuring return and the 2-day lag thing Ii've seen talked about (to the obvious, yes I've tried to read as many past posts on this that I could). Also, I'm still trying to firm up which index gives a more consistent read on the I fund, and in conjunctin with that I'm curious how the oil prices are going to effect china and japan and thus the I.

As for the current change Friday, hope I'm not chasing a downward move; really didn't expect the market to explode like it did.

I realize I've rambled on and I appreciate your patience getting to the end, hope to speak with ya'll soon, thanks in advance.
 
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Welcome Gritz!

and the 2-day lag thing Ii've seen talked about
If you get your transfer in before 12 noon ET you get in your new allocation at the closing prices that same day. The new allocation will be effected by the trading done the following day. If you miss the noon ET deadline, you have to wait another day, hence why it takes"up to 2 days".

I'm still trying to firm up which index gives a more consistent read on the I fund,
For intra day estimates, I haven't found anything better than http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EFA. I also like to use this site although the quotes are posted late ... http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html

I don't know how oil will effect China and Japan but I just wanted to make sure you knew that China is not directly part of the I fund. The United Kingdom, Japan, France, Switzerland and Germany make up over 70% of the I fund so that is where you want to concentrate your research.
 
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greg wrote:
Tom,Does the msci listing have the adjustment for the fluctuation in dollar?
It shows the EAFE index return in both local foreign currency and in US dollars, so yes.
 
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Tom, thanks for the reply. I thought that might be the case on the 2-day lag. Didn't know about msci, checking it out and will follow for awhile to get a read, thanks.

As for oil and asia, no I didn't know china was not tied to the i fund, so again, thanks for the input and for the other countries listed; as I stated before, this forum can be a great place to learn.
 
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Thanks for the info Greg; I understand ( I think) how the dollar is tied to the i fund, and does this mean that the i fund is soley affected by the dollar, not on how other economies are doing? ...obviously my knowledge of the i fund is lacking and I will go study up, but any quick notes from yourself or others is appreciated. The way I understood the fund had me under the belief that it would do rather well this year, and it may, but maybe not for the reasons I thought. thanks.
 
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Thoughts before calling it a day (mainly to remind myself in the morning): S appears to be under more pressure than I would like to see based on my limited knowledge of reading charts and the supposed market sentiment to move to larger caps, but on the plus side the Asian markets are doingwell tonight, or is it tomorrow, how about currently, but the Euros are not joing in, still might be enough to keep the I on an upward trend, especially if the dollar continues to falter. Will probably consider moving out of S into I or retreat to G.
 
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I fund was pretty flat today and it will just flirt with you I think tomorrow. If your scared go G. If I fund drops than maybe buy it.
 
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worried, confused, uncertain, but not scared me thinks. yeah, the i fund was flat but looking at the trend and the way the asian markets have reacted inspite of the oil issues and the u.s. market (granted the euros slipped all over the down side...oil patch?), hoping for a bounce in the I back to the top of the trend line. For now waiting to see how our market repsonds this am before deciding to stay or seek better cover...argh, maybe i am scared.
 
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going to hold the course with the c 20 s 20 and i 40 , but moving the f 10 back to the g and will look at the f once it reestablishes lower...once again the f done me wrong.
 
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taking all in consideration, moving out of S hoping for amove upwith C Friday-Mon? with bargain hunters putting money in and crossing fingers the trade deficit doesn't have a huge effect and putting a little more to the I, where the trend continues to look good long term.

thanks to all, and here's to good returnsfor all!
 
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Take the small bump from yesterday and move out of C to I with a small hedge in G, effective cob today, 20 G 80 I.
 
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Back to G for a short respite and look to reenter on further confirmatin (?)of a leveling bottom for C and who knows what with all the activity scheduled for next week; small realignment out of I.

Thanks to all who continue to contribute their advice and points of view, good fortune to all!
 
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Exit point well surpassed in the I and waiting for that turn-around may not be worth the continued losses. The CPI hasn't help, as the dollar continues to climb and reach highs against some currencies. Pulling out of I but will wait a bit this am before deciding on where, all G or part C and part G.
 
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take the small bumb and run to the G; especially, with tsp not processing friday, going 100 G. Thanks Tom for your updates.
 
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S&P flirting with the 1171 mark, but not falling; if Mister Green-jeans doesn't pull any surprises, looks like a good entry point for C and hope we begin the path to higher ground. Should we break below 1171, probably be back tomorrow as we might test that 1163 mark that Tom keeps us informed on. Plan to spread the wealth with most to C-50 and some to S-25 and leave the I-15 and keep back 10-g.

Thanks to all for your insights! Good fortune! :^
 
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Sticking it out with the C but moving out of the I with some reallocation to the C trying to average in and G for preservation (of mind :P) and keeping the S as is (not sure about the small caps, yet).

good fortune to ya!
 
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Took the I fund profits from yesterday, now moving what hopes to be a profitable day by cob in C & S and banking to G. Having to take an baseball philosophy to getting back in the game, being down so much, i.e. keep chipping away at the deficit to regain the lead. Thus, it's time to take the field and play some defense until it's time to bat again. May miss a move up here and there in the market but more importantly hope to miss the the drop down - capital preservation with more measured/patient growth.

As always, thanks to all contributors in all the forums :^. Good fortune to you all!
 
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Just sticking a little toe in for the hopes of a bounce tomorrow, if not probably retreat back to G.
 
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so much for testing the waters, will get out and wait until after the cpi and ppi numbers plus some major earnings come out this week - dow looks like it wants to go to 10K, I'll wait.
 
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