Griffin Account Talk

[GGal]

Where is Griffin? I'm starting to get the heebee jeebees, without his boisterous voice around to make me think somebody knows what's going on.

I need all the players in place to feel warm and fuzzy (safe).

Fundsurfer's MIA too.

GA

 

[Birchtree]

Faded?

 

[GGal]

Faded?

Now there you go, trying to egg something on......okay, get ready for what's coming!~

 

[Griffin]

Birch,

I'm upto my eyeballs in a remodel job at the homestead...so your just going to have to get in line for my time and patiently wait.

GG,

I'm in the G twiddling my thumbs. What has there been to say the last few days, except something really cliche and absurd like....the calm before the storm.

I have been amazed by how little is happening and I am really not sure how to play it, but I would like to get back into the market soon. Everything looks to toppy for me as an entry point today though.

The dollar looks like it's poised to move higher so I am not real keen on the I-fund although I like it's position in the channel better then the domestics.

Faded?

 

[Griffin]

I will be mobile all day again which is why I missed the deadline yesterday. So I am posting my move this morning. I am moving into the S-fund in keeping with my hypothesis that the best strategy is to start a rally in the domestics and try to capture some bonus gains by using the lag time inherit in the I-fund.

 

[Wheels]

I will be mobile all day again which is why I missed the deadline yesterday. So I am posting my move this morning. I am moving into the S-fund in keeping with my hypothesis that the best strategy is to start a rally in the domestics and try to capture some bonus gains by using the lag time inherit in the I-fund.

Honestly, how is it working? I think I mentioned before that this was one of the first strategies that we explored as a group within the very first months of Tom starting this site. We ultimately decided that it was not very reliable, what with the FV process and other factors. I'd be interested in knowing if you are having legitimate success with it.

 

[Griffin]

I'm not sure if I am completely ready to unilaterly promote the strategy, but I do think it buys the short term timer the ability to get into a CP mode when they have overstayed the top. Short term timing the I-fund is always dicey due to the FV situation. I'm not sure if it is benefiting me or not, I need more data (and less screw ups like missing yesterday's buy).

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm not sure if I am completely ready to unilaterly promote the strategy, but I do think it buys the short term timer the ability to get into a CP mode when they have overstayed the top. Short term timing the I-fund is always dicey due to the FV situation. I'm not sure if it is benefiting me or not, I need more data (and less screw ups like missing yesterday's buy).

Griffin,

I use this strategy when ever the opportunity presents itself. IMHO, you get a follow through more often than a whipsaw. But having said that, did make a typo in your account's thread? In there you said you went 100% S for tomorrow. But using this strategy, you should be in the I fund for tomorrow.

 

[Wheels]

Griffin,
In there you said you went 100% S for tomorrow. But using this strategy, you should be in the I fund for tomorrow.

I will be mobile all day again which is why I missed the deadline yesterday. So I am posting my move this morning.

350, I'm just guessing here but I think you have his answer in his original post. He didn't move into the I today because he made his move early this morning, before he knew the S would have a banner day.

 

[350zCommTech]

350, I'm just guessing here but I think you have his answer in his original post. He didn't move into the I today because he made his move early this morning, before he knew the S would have a banner day.

Yup, I missed it. Thanks Wheels.

 

[FundSurfer]

Short term timing the I-fund is always dicey due to the FV situation. I'm not sure if it is benefiting me or not, I need more data (and less screw ups like missing yesterday's buy).

It has bit me in the butt numerous times but I still think there are times it pays off more often than not. Lately (last 6 months) the I-fund has not had the same swing as usual, just up, up, up.

 

[Griffin]

Griffin,

I use this strategy when ever the opportunity presents itself. IMHO, you get a follow through more often than a whipsaw. But having said that, did make a typo in your account's thread? In there you said you went 100% S for tomorrow. But using this strategy, you should be in the I fund for tomorrow.

350Z,

I should have been in the I fund, but I am running into a confluence of events at home and work that are making my ability to watch the market extremely difficult. I should have recognized that having missed the the initial rally, I should have gone straight to the I, but I went to the S out of habit (and being in a rush).

Until things stabilize I am definitely not on my A game.....

 

[Griffin]

I haven't posted for awhile, so I figured I would give my two cents.

Yesterday was a surprise to me. I was thinking that we were getting close to an opportunity to get ahead of the market. I was in almost the exact same boat this time last year (lagging by 2-3%) and the urgency to catch up can cause stupid decisions. Ultimately, I keep reminding myself to stick with the program.

What is interesting between last year and this year is that my standings (as a percent in the group) were much better last year. Which means, compared to last year, I would say we are doing much better as a group. That is very encouraging. My personal goal is to meet or beat the market, not the board members.

With that said, I'm not real thrilled about falling behind especially since yesterday signaled that there is real strength to this market leaving little room for retracements.

Currently, I am patiently waiting the next buying opportunity.

 

[Griffin]

China (Shenghai index) losing 9% in one day is a big deal. I agree with Fundsurfer and am going to stay on the sidelines for a least one more day to see how things shake out.

This looks like the closest thing we have seen to the beginning of a genuine pullback so I am inclined to continue to play things cautious. It would really be a sad situation to have played it so cautious these past few weeks and still participate in a sell off.

100% G and holding......maybe tomorrow.

 

[Griffin]

I see enough strength to suggest a move lower is significantly less likely then a recovery.

Volume is screaming again today - I'm movin into the S-fund.

 

[Griffin]

I changed my IFT to a 50/50 split in the S and I

First time in a year I've split my money....

 

[FundSurfer]

Looks like we are thinking alike ...

 

[Griffin]

Looks like we are thinking alike ...

at least were playing with the same set of darts.

 

[Griffin]

The market is a slippery sucker and I have been down this road before. Sometimes you have luck catching the bottom and sometimes you get burned on the way down. I slipped back in hoping to catch a little bounce before the next cycle down, now I'm getting out. I don't expect another 3.5% day but I will not be suprised if we step down progressively for the next couple of days and see some back to back 2% losses.

Last May I got burned on the 1st day of the initial drop (before it dropped out of the channel) and again on the last little plunge for two days (for 4% more). Those 3 days made up 3 of the worst 4 days I had last year. Hopefully I can improve my track record this year. . Last June I did the V-8 head slap when I got nailed for that last 4% and told myself never again.....never say never :nuts:

If you find yourself using "what if" rationale to stay in the market, don't fail to weigh the risk of how far the bottom might be. At this point I don't expect to move back into the market until I see successful retest of the lows.

 

[Wheels]

At this point I don't expect to move back into the market until I see successful retest of the lows.

Ah but what lows? All the way back to August?