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Dollar Rises to Nearly Three-Month High

Monday October 3, 6:00 PM EDT

BERLIN (AP) — The dollar rose to the highest level against the euro in almost three months Monday amid confidence over the U.S. economy and prospects of rising interest rates.

The 12-nation euro stood at $1.1909 in late New York trading, down from $1.2018 in New York late Friday. That was its lowest since July 5, when it dipped to $1.1868.

The British pound also dropped to $1.7540 from $1.7633. The dollar was up against the Japanese currency, rising to 114.20 yen from 113.60 yen. The dollar rose to 1.3026 Swiss francs from 1.2911, and fell to 1.1649 Canadian dollars from 1.1700.

The U.S. economy has weathered the impact of Hurricane Katrina better than forecast, economic reports Monday showed. Meanwhile, the latest inflationary measures came in higher than expected — bolstering expectations that interest rates will continue to rise. Higher rates boost the appeal of assets denominated in particular currency.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index advanced to 59.4 percent in September from 53.6 percent the month before, for the industrial sector's 28th consecutive month of growth.

But manufacturers reported another sharp jump in prices last month as higher crude oil costs and transportation problems caused by the hurricanes boosted input costs. The price index rose to 78 percent in September, a 15.5 percentage point rise from 62.5 percent in August, the institute said. The price index had jumped 14 percentage points the month before.

Even a better-than-expected purchasing managers' index from the euro zone Monday failed to lift the euro. The dollar rose against the yen after the Bank of Japan's quarterly survey of corporate sentiment fell short of expectations.

"The fact that these moves occurred despite better-than-expected European data underscores the fact that U.S. developments — primarily higher U.S. yields and general dollar momentum — are more important drivers in the market at present, rather than European developments," Robert Lynch, a currency strategist at HSBC in New York, wrote in a research note.
 
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Tokyo stocks seen up

Monday October 3, 7:53 PM EDT

TOKYO (Reuters) - Tokyo stocks are seen moving higher on Tuesday with high-tech stocks and other exporters such as Honda Motor Co. advancing after the dollar rose to a 16-month high against the yen on Monday.

However, gains may be limited by investors selling shares in banks, insurers and others that depend on domestic demand, because of concerns that the recent rally has been overdone.

"Semiconductor-related shares, which are also benefiting from stronger global sales, may get a push from the dollar's level of around 114 yen," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager of equity marketing at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc.

Shares in companies that rely on domestic demand, which have helped push the market higher until now, are likely to see much less buying, he added.

On Monday the dollar rose as high as 114.37 yen its highest since May 2004, after a U.S. manufacturing survey bolstered expectations for further official interest rate hikes.

A stronger dollar is a boon for Japanese firms that rely on export sales, as it makes their products more competitive in foreign markets and increases profits when dollar-denominated revenues are brought home.

Traders expect the Nikkei to move between 13,450 and 13,650 on Tuesday.

On Monday, it fell 0.36 percent to 13,525.28 after the key tankan business sentiment survey came in just short of expectations, spurring investors to sell insurers, banks, builders and other stocks seen as overvalued.

U.S. blue chips ended lower on Monday, after heavily weighted Exxon Mobil Corp. declined on receding oil prices, while stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity underpinned technology stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.31 percent to 10,535.48, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 0.17 percent at 2,155.43.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 0.17 percent and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 0.59 percent.

©2005 Reuters Limited.
 
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Miers' Qualifications Are 'Non-Existent'

by Patrick J. Buchanan
Posted Oct 3, 2005

Handed a once-in-a-generation opportunity to return the Supreme Court to constitutionalism, George W. Bush passed over a dozen of the finest jurists of his day -- to name his personal lawyer.

In a decision deeply disheartening to those who invested such hopes in him, Bush may have tossed away his and our last chance to roll back the social revolution imposed upon us by our judicial dictatorship since the days of Earl Warren.

This is not to disparage Harriet Miers. From all accounts, she is a gracious lady who has spent decades in the law and served ably as Bush’s lawyer in Texas and, for a year, as White House counsel.

But her qualifications for the Supreme Court are non-existent. She is not a brilliant jurist, indeed, has never been a judge. She is not a scholar of the law. Researchers are hard-pressed to dig up an opinion. She has not had a brilliant career in politics, the academy, the corporate world or public forum. Were she not a friend of Bush, and female, she would never have even been considered.

What commended her to the White House, in the phrase of the hour, is that she “has no paper trail.” So far as one can see, this is Harriet Miers’ principal qualification for the U.S. Supreme Court.

What is depressing here is not what the nomination tells us of her, but what it tells us of the president who appointed her. For in selecting her, Bush capitulated to the diversity-mongers, used a critical Supreme Court seat to reward a crony, and revealed that he lacks the desire to engage the Senate in fierce combat to carry out his now-suspect commitment to remake the court in the image of Scalia and Thomas. In picking her, Bush ran from a fight. The conservative movement has been had -- and not for the first time by a president by the name of Bush.

Choosing Miers, the president passed over outstanding judges and proven constitutionalists like Michael Luttig of the 4th Circuit and Sam Alito of the 3rd. And if he could not take the heat from the First Lady, and had to name a woman, what was wrong with U.S. appellate court judges Janice Rogers Brown, Priscilla Owens and Edith Jones?

What must these jurists think today about their president today? How does Bush explain to his people why Brown, Owens and Jones were passed over for Miers?

Where was Karl Rove in all of this? Is he so distracted by the Valerie Plame investigation he could not warn the president against what he would be doing to his reputation and coalition?

Reshaping the Supreme Court is an issue that unites Republicans and conservatives And with his White House and party on the defensive for months over Cindy Sheehan and Katrina, Iraq and New Orleans, Delay and Frist, gas prices and immigration, here was the great opportunity to draw all together for a battle of philosophies, by throwing the gauntlet down to the Left, sending up the name of a Luttig, and declaring, “Go ahead and do your worst. We shall do our best.”

Do the Bushites not understand that “conservative judges” is one of those issues where the national majority is still with them?

What does it tell us that White House, in selling her to the party and press, is pointing out that Miers “has no paper trial.” What does that mean, other than that she is not a Rehnquist, a Bork, a Scalia or a Thomas?

Conservatives cherish justices and judges who have paper trails. For that means these men and women have articulated and defended their convictions. They have written in magazines and law journals about what is wrong with the courts and how to make it right. They had stood up to the prevailing winds. They have argued for the Constitution as the firm and fixed document the Founding Fathers wrote, not some thing of wax.

A paper trail is the mark of a lawyer, a scholar or a judge who has shared the action and passion of his or her time, taken a stand on the great questions, accepted public abuse for articulating convictions.

Why is a judicial cipher like Harriet Miers to be preferred to a judicial conservative like Edith Jones?

One reason: Because the White House fears nominees “with a paper trail” will be rejected by the Senate, and this White House fears, above all else, losing. So, it has chosen not to fight.

Bush had a chance for greatness in remaking the Supreme Court, a chance to succeed where his Republican precedessors from Nixon to his father all failed. He instinctively recoiled from it. He blew it. His only hope now is that Harriet Miers, if confirmed, will not vote like the lady she replaced, or, worse, like his father’s choice who also had “no paper trail,” David Souter.

Copyright © 2004 HUMAN EVENTS
 
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Disappointed, Depressed and Demoralized

William Kristol
Mon Oct 3,11:11 AM ET

I'M DISAPPOINTED, depressed and demoralized.

I'm disappointed because I expected President Bush to nominate someone with a visible and distinguished constitutionalist track record--someone like Maura Corrigan, Alice Batchelder, Edith Jones, Priscilla Owen, or Janice Rogers Brown--to say nothing of Michael Luttig, Michael McConnell, or Samuel Alito. Harriet Miers has an impressive record as a corporate attorney and Bush administration official. She has no constitutionalist credentials that I know of.

I'm depressed. Roberts for O'Connor was an unambiguous improvement. Roberts for Rehnquist was an appropriate replacement. But moving Roberts over to the Rehnquist seat meant everything rode on this nomination--and that the president had to be ready to fight on constitutional grounds for a strong nominee. Apparently, he wasn't. It is very hard to avoid the conclusion that President Bush flinched from a fight on constitutional philosophy. Miers is undoubtedly a decent and competent person. But her selection will unavoidably be judged as reflecting a combination of cronyism and capitulation on the part of the president.

I'm demoralized. What does this say about the next three years of the Bush administration--leaving aside for a moment the future of the Court? Surely this is a pick from weakness. Is the administration more broadly so weak? What are the prospects for a strong Bush second term? What are the prospects for holding solid GOP majorities in Congress in 2006 if conservatives are demoralized? And what elected officials will step forward to begin to lay the groundwork for conservative leadership after Bush?

William Kristol is editor of The Weekly Standard.
 
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Thanh Nien News | Special report | Experts mull ways of boosting property supplies

Experts mull ways of boosting property supplies


Dr. Nguyen An Binh

In an interview with Thanh Nien, Dr. Nguyen An Binh, a real estate expert in Vietnam’s commercial hub Ho Chi Minh City, discusses how make property more available to low-income buyers.

Sky-high prices are now an obstacle for low-income home buyers, but Mr. Binh, chairman of the HCMC says it is impossible to reduce prices with administrative measures as proposed by a government agency.

Below are his comments on the property market and a full transcript of his interview.

“The real estate market is stagnant mainly because of slow property sales caused by speculation, which drives up market prices based on a fictitious demand. But projects that build houses for rent or lease-to-own houses still attract a lot of customers.”

“A recent decision by banks to tighten control over loans for property development has affected such projects. In my opinion, it is necessary to encourage these kinds of projects to boost property available to low-income buyers.”

What should the government do to make property more accessible to low income earners who have high demand for it?

In my opinion, the government should increase investment and provide land for housing projects that benefit low-income people. In the long rum, the government has to establish control on rising house prices.

Particularly, the government must gather information over property sales and impose reasonable taxes. For example, if one buys one home, they should enjoy low taxes, but would face heavier duties if purchasing two or three homes.

Or the government can determine different levels of duties on different types of homes. For instance, taxes on a villa must be different from that on an apartment.

You could then invest the tax money into housing projects for low-income people. Many countries have adopted this measure, and thus, can boost property available to the poor.

Can house prices, which remain very high, be reduced?

Normally, house prices are determined by the market. In my opinion, it is impossible to reduce prices with administrative measures only.

But I think house prices for low-income people can be reduced if the government launches property policies. For example, the government can provide state land for housing projects and offer concessionary credits.

The most important thing is lower prices do not mean lower quality. And the government must formulate detailed policies to govern the issue.

What do you think of the measures proposed by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE) (with one being temporarily curbing property supplies) to heat up the sluggish real estate market?

I think these are hasty decisions by the MNRE in the face of a long slowdown in the property market. But prior to ‘treatment’, you must make a proper ‘diagnosis’ if you want an effective and long term solution.

Thank you

Reported by Tran Thanh Binh – Translated by Hieu Trung.

Story from Thanh Nien News
Published: 03 October, 2005, 21:08:12 (GMT+7)
Copyright Thanh Nien News
 
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Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets

October 4, 2005
By DAVID LEONHARDT and MOTOKO RICH

A real estate slowdown that began in a handful of cities this summer has spread to almost every hot housing market in the country, including New York.

More sellers are putting their homes on the market, houses are selling less quickly and prices are no longer increasing as rapidly as they were in the spring, according to local data and interviews with brokers.

In Manhattan, the average sales price fell almost 13 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, according to a widely followed report to be released today by Miller Samuel, an appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman, a real estate firm. The amount of time it took to sell a home was also up 30.4 percent over the same period.

In another sign that the housing market might have reached a peak, executives at big home builders have sold almost $1 billion worth of company stock this year.

Outside Washington, in Fairfax County, Va., the number of homes on the market in August rose nearly 50 percent from August 2004. In the Boston suburb of Brookline, Mass., where many three-bedroom houses cost $1 million or more, the inventory of homes for sale has increased in just the last few weeks, said Chobee Hoy, a broker there.

For-sale listings have also swelled throughout California, according to the California Association of Realtors. In the San Francisco Bay area, they have increased 16 percent in the last year, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage said.

"We are seeing a market in transition," Leslie Appleton-Young, the association's chief economist, said.

Brokers said that some houses seemed to be on the market longer because sellers priced them too high, assuming that their value was still rising sharply. In other cases, people who otherwise would have waited a year or two to sell their homes - like empty nesters ready to move into smaller quarters - had listed them now out of fear that prices would soon fall.

The question remains whether all of this represents a momentary cooling off of some overheated housing markets, or it presages a more pronounced downturn that would end a decade-long boom.

Some economists and commentators have for years predicted the bursting of a real estate bubble, and previous slowdowns have turned out to be relatively brief pauses before prices started accelerating again.

But with mortgage rates now rising, the cost of gasoline hovering at or near $3 a gallon and house prices in some areas out of reach for many families, brokers and analysts said they thought that this slowdown could be the real thing.

For now, the change remains a far cry from the bursting bubble that some have predicted.

In Massachusetts, for example, the median house price remained flat from July to August, and the median condominium price fell only slightly, according to the Realtors' association there. At the start of the year, prices had been rising at an annual rate of more than 15 percent.

If anything, some brokers said, the recent slowdown meant a return to a healthier, more sustainable market.

"What we had was abnormal," said Dottie Herman, chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman. "People get used to abnormal times and then when they're normal, they think there's something wrong."

Alexander Shakhov, 47, listed his two-bedroom house in Frederick, Md., an outer suburb of Washington, for $529,000 in July, and it remained unsold for the rest of the summer. A month ago, he reduced the price to $499,000 at the suggestion of a broker. A week ago, Mr. Shakhov accepted an offer at the lower price.

The market "is not as hot as the last two years," Mr. Shakhov, a scientist at a biotechnology company, said, "but I'm pretty happy."

He bought the house three years ago for $230,000. He now lives in Cleveland, where he has bought a home that is nearly twice as large as his Frederick house for less money.

The cooling off has forced both sellers and real estate agents to begin changing their attitudes about residential property, many said.

Houses that are priced too high are sometimes on the market for weeks or months now, rather than fetching even more money than their owners had imagined they could get.

In Manhattan, the average sales price of co-op and condominium apartments fell 12.7 percent, to $1.15 million, in the three months that ended on Sept. 30 compared with the second quarter, according to the Prudential Douglas Elliman report. The median sales price - which means half of homes sold for more and half for less - fell 3.2 percent, to $750,000.

Still, the average sales price was 10 percent higher this summer than it was a year earlier, according to the study.

Nationally, housing prices rose at the fastest rates since 1979 in the 12 months through August, the National Association of Realtors said last week.

But the changes that real estate agents have seen in recent weeks - increased inventories and longer sales times - have often preceded market slowdowns in the past.

One reason properties are remaining on the market longer is that sellers still expect to reap double-digit price appreciation each year.

"What will slow this market down, and has slowed certain segments of the market down, is overpricing," said Pamela Liebman, chief executive of the Corcoran Group, a large real estate firm in New York. "Back in the spring, there was such a frenzy that very pedestrian product was drawing multiple bids."

Some of today's sellers appear to be pricing their homes as if the frenzy were continuing.

"Their neighbors sold their house when the market was red-hot, and everybody thinks their house is better than their neighbor's house," said Maggie Tomkiewicz, the president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors and a broker in South Dartmouth. "But when the neighbor sold, there may not have been five other houses on the market" in the area.

The slowdown has also jolted the thousands of people who have become licensed brokers in the last few years. Until now, many of them knew only galloping price appreciation.

"I've gotten these calls from newer agents saying: 'I've had this property on the market for 60 to 90 days. What do I do?'" related Buzz Mackintosh, an owner of Mackintosh Realtors in Frederick, who has been selling houses for two decades. "And I say, 'It's called, 'Reduce your price.' "

Indications of a slowdown have appeared before. Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said the last time that average and median sales prices dropped below those the previous quarter at the same time that inventories and sales duration rose in Manhattan was in the fourth quarter of 2002. But by the end of 2003, the market had come back.

An important difference now, though, is that mortgage rates are creeping up, whereas previous comebacks have been fueled by ever-lower rates.

On five-year adjustable-rate mortgages - a popular loan with a fixed interest rate for the first five years - the initial rate has risen to 5.59 percent on average, from 5.14 percent in June, according to BankRate.com.

What is more, some mortgage lenders have started to tighten credit standards, making it harder for buyers to get loans.

"Low interest rates and easy credit standards are just about over," said Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

Ron Nixon, in New York, and Matt Richtel, in San Francisco, contributed reporting for this article.

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
 
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First Lady, Democratic Leader Helped Miers

Laura Bush wanted a female justice. Harry Reid suggested the White House counsel.

October 4, 2005

WASHINGTON — When Harriet E. Miers sat down Sunday for supper with President Bush in the private quarters of the White House, she had an influential ally at the table: Laura Bush.

Twice this summer, Mrs. Bush had publicly expressed the hope that her husband would name a woman to replace Sandra Day O'Connor, the first woman to serve on the Supreme Court.

Before the dinner of fried shrimp, polenta and chocolate mousse was over, the first lady's wish came true. Bush's nomination offer to Miers brought to a surprising end a professional courtship between the president and his White House counsel that he launched discreetly less than two weeks earlier.

"I don't think this was something that she expected," said White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan. "She was not seeking this out."

Indeed, Miers was among the top White House aides who were vetting potential candidates for the court, and her name was put forward by an unusual source — the leader of the Senate Democrats, Harry Reid of Nevada.

On Sept. 21, during a breakfast meeting with Bush and other senators, Reid suggested that Miers would make a good nominee, citing his favorable impression of her during the confirmation process for the new chief justice, John G. Roberts Jr.

In addition, senators of both parties were urging Bush to consider a nominee who has never served as a judge. Such a candidate, they said, would bring different experiences and perspectives to a court whose members had risen through the ranks of the judiciary.

The same day that Reid suggested Miers as a potential justice, Bush broached the topic with her. She was, said McClellan, one of as many as 15 candidates the president considered — "a diverse" group from "all walks of life," including at least half a dozen women.

Bush and Miers talked again Wednesday and Thursday. White House officials began sounding out some conservative allies as early as Thursday, testing their reaction to Miers and two other possibilities, according to Paul M. Weyrich, head of the conservative Free Congress Foundation.

Bush continued pondering the matter during the weekend at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland's Catoctin Mountains. There, he conferred several times with White House chief of staff Andrew H. Card Jr.

The president returned to the White House on Sunday morning for an annual church service honoring the legal profession on the day before the Supreme Court's new term. "He's still working … still considering lots of options," Card told reporters as Bush got off Marine One.

By 7 p.m., Bush told Card of his decision, and Card called Vice President Dick Cheney.

In the end, McClellan said Monday, Bush recognized Miers as "someone who had the kind of qualifications and experience and judgment that was needed to serve."

On Monday morning at 7, an hour before he announced Miers as his choice, Bush called the new chief justice to inform him of the nomination. Then the president called O'Connor. A short time later, he attended Roberts' investiture.

Bush initially had selected Roberts to succeed O'Connor, who at the time rued that her seat would not be filled by a woman. But when Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist died a month ago, Bush nominated Roberts to be chief justice.

In selecting Miers to succeed O'Connor, Bush clearly made his wife happy. As Susan Whitson, the first lady's press secretary, noted, "Mrs. Bush is pleased with the pick."

"The president certainly takes into account her advice, I can assure you of that," added McClellan.

Copyright 2005 Los Angeles Times
 
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Crude Oil Prices Slide Below $64/barrel

AP Business - Tuesday October 4, 8:52 PM EDT

Crude oil prices slid more than $1 a barrel Tuesday in a sign that market jitters have eased with the summer driving season over and the winter heating season yet to begin, analysts said.

Light sweet crude for November delivery fell $1.57 to settle at $63.90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline futures fell 4.65 cents to close at $2.0157 a gallon, while heating oil futures fell 3.12 cents to $2.0497 per gallon.

In London, November Brent futures dropped $1.58 to settle at $61.22 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

"Demand growth is in the process of slowing," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading in Tampa, Fla. "Everyone knows we're in a seasonal soft patch."

The psychology of the market may also be shifting as a result of the Bush administration's recent requests of Americans to conserve fuel. And on Monday, U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman sought to address the supply side of the equation by saying the government was "prepared to do what is necessary with strategic reserves" — a response to a question about the U.S. Northeast emergency heating oil inventory.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency has said it would consider releasing additional petroleum supplies to help the U.S. avert an energy crisis in the aftermath of back-to-back hurricanes that crimped oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. Minerals Management Service said Tuesday that 90 percent of the region's daily oil production remains shut, while 72 percent of its daily natural gas output is down.

Analysts are waiting for a U.S. petroleum inventories report due later in the week for fuller details of the impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

One big issue, analysts say, is the loss of Gulf Coast refining capacity needed to manufacture gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel. Twelve refineries accounting for about 3 million barrels a day, or 18 percent, of U.S. refining capacity remain shut in the aftermath of Katrina and Rita.

Another concern is the potential for a prolonged loss of natural gas output. Unlike oil, the U.S. government does not have an emergency stockpile of natural gas and the country does not have the infrastructure in place to substantially increase imports.

Natural gas for November delivery rose 20.7 cents to $14.224 per 1,000 cubic feet.
 
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Fed watching US inflation

Tuesday October 4, 9:02 PM EDT

SEATTLE (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates to keep inflation at bay and has no timetable to halt this tightening campaign, three of its top officials made plain in remarks on Tuesday.

"To keep cyclical price pressures and any transitory spike in energy prices from permanently disrupting the price environment, the Fed will have to continue shifting monetary policy from its current somewhat accommodative stance to a more neutral one," Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anthony Santomero told an audience in Williamsport, Penn..

Investors bet the Fed will keep raising short-term rates until the end of this year and then pause, probably at its meeting in January -- a view reinforced by the latest policy statement that it would continue to move at a measured pace.

St Louis Fed boss William Poole said that no timetable to alter the bank's policy statement existed, but when they did act, it would mean the long rate hike campaign was over.

"We don't have any schedule in front of us," Poole told reporters after delivering a speech on Fed transparency.

"I think the change will come when the committee is ready to stop raising rates. It would probably confuse the market to change the language and continue raising rates," he said.

Fed officials worry that soaring energy prices after hurricanes Katrina and Rita could feed wider inflation and see this as a bigger danger than the fallout from the storms' destruction on economic activity.

But Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said the central bank was alert to the risks.

"The inflation rate is near the upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone, and it shows little inclination to go in the other direction," Fisher told the Greater Dallas Chamber of Commerce. He said hefty energy price rises were adding "demand pressures" to the economy that had to be watched.

Separately in Seattle, Poole said the U.S. central bank would be flexible if inflation risks become heightened and said financial markets, which have grown used to more transparency in policymaking, understand that is so.

FED MORE OPEN

The Fed in 2003 introduced forward-looking language into its policy statements which accompany each FOMC meeting. Since then, the degree of surprise in markets to subsequent policy action has been very muted and this was good, Poole said.

"It is quite clear that the markets understand Fed policy to a much better extent than before," Poole said.

Over the past few weeks, a number of Fed officials have emphasized the central bank's determination to keep inflation under control, leading financial markets to believe the rate-rise cycle may not be as near an end as some had previously thought.

Fed officials have said they are moving interest rates toward a "neutral" level that neither boosts nor slows the economy, suggesting further rate hikes are still needed.

Santomero, when asked after his speech to give an idea of what the Fed considers to be a "neutral" level of official rates, said there is no single level of "neutral" because the economy changes from one quarter to the next.

"As we move upward we have to analyze how the economy is absorbing these changes in (interest) rates and monitor this data as we go forward. A single number in truth will not be the same number quarter after quarter," he said.

At its last policy meeting two weeks ago, the Fed raised the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75 percent. It was the 11th straight increase in a series of hikes that started in mid-2004, when the bank-to-bank rate stood at a 1958 low of 1 percent.

In a statement outlining its September 20 decision, the Fed expressed concern Katrina could boost inflation pressures and said the hit to economic growth from the storm was likely to be fleeting. It also repeated its expectation that it could continue to push rates higher at a "measured" pace.

Poole said the Fed wanted to keep so-called core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, within a fairly narrow range to prevent a threat to expansion.

"Our aim is to keep inflation, in general, down," Poole said. "If I had to pick a point, it is to keep these broad measures in a one to two percent range."

August core inflation grew by a year-on-year rate of 2.1 percent while headline consumer inflation rose 3.6 percent and could top 4.0 percent in September, economists say.

©2005 Reuters Limited.
 
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Dollar falls against euro ahead of data

Thursday October 6, 12:00 AM EDT

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the euro on Thursday on worries that its recent rally on expectations for higher U.S. interest rates might have gone too far and on caution ahead of U.S. jobs data.

Talk that Venezuela was moving its reserves out of U.S. Treasuries and that Russia may revalue the rouble to keep inflation in check also weighed on the dollar, traders said.

A Venezuelan central bank director, Domingo Maza Zavala, was quoted in the Financial Times newspaper on Thursday as saying the country had transferred a large part of its $30.4 billion foreign reserves out of U.S. Treasuries over the last four months.

"The Venezuela story was the trigger for the taking out of stop-loss levels" that propelled the euro higher, said a trader at a Japanese bank.

Reuters had already reported on Monday, in an interview with Maza, that Venezuela had reduced U.S. Treasuries in its reserves.

Traders said that market players used the Venezuela story as an excuse to take profits on the dollar's recent run higher ahead of the U.S. payroll figures on Friday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expected to see a loss of 129,000 jobs in September as layoffs in the wake of Hurricane Katrina offset gains in the rest of the country.

The dollar had risen to 16-month highs against the yen and three-month peaks versus the euro earlier in the week on prospects for higher U.S. interest rates.

By 0330 GMT, the euro bought $1.2050, up 0.6 percent from the level in late U.S. trade and well above the three-month low of $1.1900 hit earlier in the week on electronic trading platform

Traders said the euro was bumped higher after it breached a series of stop-loss levels at and above $1.20.

They also said talk of a Russian media report that the Russian central bank was contemplating revaluing the rouble had given the euro additional support. Reuters has not been able to verify the report.

Against the yen, the dollar was slightly down at 113.85 yen, still in sight of the 16-month high around 114.40 yen marked on Wednesday.

FED SUPPORT

The dollar had risen on a chorus of comments from Federal Reserve officials expressing concern about U.S. inflation, supporting expectations the central bank would stick to its tightening campaign.

The latest person to pipe up was Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who said on Wednesday that U.S. policy-makers must be alert to price pressures, although he said a huge surge in inflation was unlikely.

"The market is cautious about the speed of the dollar's rise but the scenario for the higher dollar remains," said Mitsuru Sahara, a senior trader at UFJ Bank.

The euro rose about 0.6 percent to 137.25 yen. Traders said the single currency got a lift higher after stop-loss levels were taken out around 136.80 yen.

Traders said demand from Japanese retail investors for foreign bonds boosted currencies with large rate advantages, such as the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar. Both currencies traded at levels not far from multi-year highs versus the yen hit earlier this week.

The market will keep an eye out for rate decision announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank later in the day, though both are expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

©2005 Reuters Limited.
 
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washingtonpost.com

The Relatively Charmed Life Of Neil Bush
Despite Silverado and Voodoo, Fortune Still Smiles on the President's Brother

By Peter Carlson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 28, 2003; Page D01

Ah, it's nice to be Neil Bush.

When you're Neil Bush, rich people from all over the world are eager to invest money in your businesses, even though your businesses have a history of crashing and burning in spectacular fashion.

When you're Neil Bush, you'll be sitting in a hotel room in Thailand or Hong Kong, minding your own business, when suddenly there's a knock at the door. You answer it and a comely woman strolls in and has sex with you.

Life sure is fun when you're Neil Bush, son of one president, brother of another.

Just how much fun was revealed in a deposition taken last March, during Bush's very nasty divorce battle. Asked by his wife's attorney whether he'd had any extramarital affairs, Bush told the story of his Asian hotel room escapades.

"Mr. Bush," said the attorney, Marshall Davis Brown, "you have to admit that it's a pretty remarkable thing for a man just to go to a hotel room door and open it and have a woman standing there and have sex with her."

"It was very unusual," Bush replied.

Actually, it wasn't that unusual. It happened at least three or four times during Bush's business trips to Asia, he said: "I don't remember the exact number."

"Were they prostitutes?" asked Brown.

"I don't -- I don't know," Neil replied.

"Did you pay them?"

"No."

Not surprisingly, the revelation made headlines around the world. Equally unsurprisingly, the sex story overshadowed the curious financial revelations that came out in the same deposition.

In 2002, for instance, Bush signed a consulting contract with Grace Semiconductor -- a Shanghai-based company managed in part by the son of former Chinese president Jiang Zemin. Bush's contractual duties consist solely of attending board meetings and discussing "business strategies." For this, he is to be paid $2 million in company stock over five years, plus $10,000 for every board meeting he attends.

"Now, you have absolutely no educational background in semiconductors, do you Mr. Bush?" Brown asked.

"That's correct," Bush responded.

Meanwhile, back home in Texas, Bush serves as co-chairman of a company called Crest Investment. Crest, he revealed in the deposition, pays him $60,000 a year to provide "miscellaneous consulting services."

"Such as?" Brown asked.

"Such as answering phone calls when Jamal Daniel, the other co-chairman, called and asked for advice," Bush replied.

Ah, it's nice to be Neil Bush, who seems to be living the lifestyle immortalized in those famous Dire Straits lyrics: "Money for nothin' and chicks for free."

Unique, Relatively Speaking

Neil Bush is the latest manifestation of a long tradition in American life -- the president's embarrassing relative.

There was Sam Houston Johnson, who used to get drunk and start blabbing to the press until his brother, Lyndon, sicced the Secret Service on him.

And Donald Nixon, who dreamed of founding a fast-food chain called Nixonburgers and who accepted, but never repaid, a $200,000 loan from billionaire Howard Hughes. His brother, Dick, had the Secret Service tap his phone.

And Billy Carter, who drank prodigious quantities of beer, authored a book called "Redneck Power" and took $200,000 from the government of Libya.

And Roger Clinton, a party animal who spent a year in prison for cocaine dealing and who later appeared in a movie called "Pumpkinhead II" playing a pol called Mayor Bubba.

But Neil Bush has surpassed them all. Bush has done something that no other American has ever accomplished: He has become the embarrassing relative of not one but two presidents.

In the late '80s and early '90s, Bush embarrassed his father, George H.W. Bush, with his shady dealings as a board member of the infamous Silverado Savings and Loan, whose collapse cost taxpayers $1 billion.

Now Bush has embarrassed his brother George W. Bush with a made-for-the-tabloids divorce that featured paternity rumors, a defamation suit and, believe it or not, allegations of voodoo.

And Bush's career as an embarrassment may not be over. At 48, he is still relatively young and, judging from his deposition, still virile and vigorous. If his brother Jeb, governor of Florida, is ever elected president, Neil could conceivably embarrass him, too, pulling off an unprecedented hat trick of presidential embarrassment.

Obviously, it's time for a mid-career retrospective on the life and work of Neil Bush.

Or maybe not. His father, mother, brothers and ex-wife all declined to be interviewed. White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan uttered a curt "no comment."

Neil also declined to be interviewed, although he agreed to respond to e-mailed questions, provided they did not pertain to his divorce. He reports that he's too involved with Ignite!, his educational software company, to pay much attention to media coverage of his misadventures.

"Seriously," he writes via e-mail, "I'm too busy being a good father and promoting Ignite! to worry about that kind of thing."

The Wheeler-Dealer

Neil Mallon Bush was born in 1955 and named after his grandfather's Yale buddy Neil Mallon, the corporate CEO who gave George H.W. Bush his first job in the Texas oil business.

The third of the five Bush children, Neil was so thoughtful and helpful that siblings dubbed him "Mr. Perfect."

But Neil had trouble reading, and a counselor at St. Albans prep school in Washington told his mother he might not graduate. His problem was dyslexia, and his mother spent countless weekends taking him to special reading lessons.

It worked. He graduated, then went to Tulane University, where he received a degree in international economics and, in 1979, an MBA. That year, while working on his father's unsuccessful campaign for the 1980 Republican presidential nomination, Neil met Sharon Smith, whom his mother later described in her memoirs as "a darling young schoolteacher from New Hampshire."

They married in 1980 and moved to Denver, where Neil got a $30,000 job negotiating mineral leases for Amoco. Denver was an oil-fueled boomtown, and soon the handsome son of the vice president was charming the swells at the soirees of Denver's social set.

In 1982, Neil and two co-workers quit and formed an oil exploration company, JNB Exploration. His partners were geologists; Neil was in charge of raising money.

"Neil knew people because of his name," one partner, Evans Nash, said later.

Among the people Neil knew were two high-powered Denver real estate barons -- Bill Walters and Ken Good. Walters was a flamboyant Rolex-wearing, Rolls-driving mogul known as "the Donald Trump of Denver." Good owned the largest home in Colorado, a $10 million mansion with a special plumbing system that pumped Scotch, gin and vodka throughout the house.

After listening to Bush's sales pitch, Walters invested $150,000 and set up a $1.75 million line of credit for JNB at a bank he owned. Good invested $10,000 and pledged loans worth $1.5 million. Good also lent Bush $100,000 to gamble in the commodities market and said Neil didn't have to pay it back unless he made money.

"It was," Bush later admitted, "an incredibly sweet deal."

He set up an office, decorated it with a bust of his father and paid himself $66,000 a year -- double his Amoco salary. But JNB floundered. In five years, the company drilled 26 wells in four states, but it never found a drop of exploitable oil. JNB would have gone bankrupt if not for the money from Walters and Good.

But Bush was able to help the men who helped him. In 1985 he joined the board of Silverado Savings and Loan, which had already lent millions to Walters and Good. Over the next three years, Silverado lent an additional $106 million to Walters and $35 million to Good, although the two men's real estate empires were collapsing.

Good used some of that money to buy JNB, although it was still losing money. He raised Bush's salary to $120,000 and awarded him a bonus of $22,000. He also hired Bush as a director of one of his companies, at a salary of $100,000.

Neither Good nor Walters ever repaid a nickel of their Silverado loans, and in 1988 Silverado went belly up, leaving U.S. taxpayers holding the bag for $1.3 billion in debts.

Picking through the wreckage, regulators from the federal Office of Thrift Supervision concluded in 1991 that Bush's deals with Good and Walters while serving on Silverado's board constituted "multiple conflicts of interest." Bush became a public symbol of the $500 billion savings and loan scandal. Protesters picketed his home and pasted mock wanted posters around Washington: "Jail Neil Bush."

Bush proclaimed his innocence, declaring at a news conference that "self-serving regulators" were persecuting him because he was the president's son. But when he appeared before the House Banking Committee in 1990, he admitted that some of his deals looked "a little fishy."

Ultimately, Bush paid $50,000 as his part of a federal lawsuit against Silverado and was reprimanded by the OTS. Good and Walters ended up declaring bankruptcy, and JNB, which had never found oil or made money, quietly perished.

Today, Bush maintains that he did nothing wrong.

"I happened to be one of hundreds of other American businessmen and women who served as an outside director on the board of a savings and loan institution that failed during the 1980s," he writes in an e-mail. "I regret that the institution's failure cost taxpayers so much money."

Strictly Business

During his high-rolling days in Denver, Neil had told reporters that he was thinking of running for Congress. At home, he spoke with his brothers about running for governor.

"They'd talk about how GW was going to run for governor of Texas and Jeb would run for governor of Florida and Neil would run for governor of Colorado," recalls Douglas Wead, a Bush family friend who served as a special assistant in the first Bush White House. "The family would have bet on Jeb, but if you just observed their personalities, you'd say Neil."

Neil was the most charming of the Bush brothers, Wead says. "He's relaxed, he's funny, he's a better speaker than anybody in the family. . . . He could easily have been a congressman."

The Silverado scandal killed Neil's dream of a political career. But, thanks to his father's friends, it had little effect on his business career.

Thomas "Lud" Ashley, an ex-congressman and bank lobbyist, "came to the rescue," Barbara Bush wrote in her memoirs, and raised money to pay Neil's legal bills.

"I'm a family friend," Ashley explains today, "and he was in real difficulty."

With Silverado and JNB both belly up, Bush started Apex Energy, a methane gas exploration company. He invested $3,000 of his own money and got $2.3 million from two companies run by his father's friend Louis Marx, heir to the Marx toy fortune.

Neil used Marx's money to pay himself a salary of $160,000, and he sold a Wyoming gas lease that he owned to Apex for $150,000. The lease proved worthless -- no methane there. In fact, Apex, like JNB, never found anything worth pumping.

After two years, Apex went broke. Bush had received more than $300,000 in salary but Marx got zip, and the Small Business Administration, which had backed Marx's investments, was left holding the empty bag.

An investigation by the House Small Business Committee found nothing "illegal or improper" but noted that a $2 million federally guaranteed investment to an applicant who risked only $3,000 of his own money seemed like "a very high leveraging of funds."

A few months after Apex crashed in 1991, Bush was rescued by another of his father's rich friends. Bill Daniels, a multimillionaire cable TV baron who raised $330,000 in 1987 for George H.W. Bush's presidential campaign, hired Neil to a $60,000 job at TransMedia Communications.

"Anyone who hires Neil Bush is going to get some heat," Daniels said at the time, "but somebody had to do it."

TransMedia was headquartered in Texas, so Bush sold his $500,000 house in Denver and moved Sharon and their three kids -- Lauren, Pierce and Ashley -- to Houston.

Peter Wehner of Colorado Business magazine called TransMedia to find out exactly what Bush would be doing for the company.

"I'm trying to find a title for him, if you want to know the truth," said Dick Barron, TransMedia's president. "He'll be learning the business, basically."

Traveling Salesman

In April 1993, shortly after leaving the White House, George H.W. Bush flew to Kuwait, accompanied by his wife, his sons Marvin and Neil, and his former secretary of state, James Baker.

The ex-president received a hero's welcome, a medal from the emir and an honorary degree from the university. After he left, Baker and Neil Bush went to work, attempting to win contracts from the Kuwaiti government. Ultimately, Bush's efforts failed to bear fruit. But over the next decade, he frequently traveled to the Middle East, Europe and Asia to negotiate deals and raise capital for various businesses. In 2000 he made $1.3 million, according to his deposition testimony -- $642,500 of it paid as a commission for introducing an Asian investor to the owners of an American high-tech company.

During his travels, he met with several Arab princes and enjoyed a private dinner with Jiang Zemin, then China's president, who serenaded Bush with a military song.

"I probably have access to people who wouldn't meet with a development-stage company," Bush told an Associated Press reporter in 2002, "but I feel I'm held to a higher standard."

For the last several years, Bush's main business interest has been Ignite!, the educational software company he co-founded in 1999. To fund Ignite!, Bush has raised $23 million from U.S. investors (including his parents), as well as businessmen from Taiwan, Japan, Kuwait, the British Virgin Islands and the United Arab Emirates, according to documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Last year, Ignite! also entered into a partnership with a Mexican company, Grupo Carso Telecom. The partnership enabled Ignite! to lay off half of its 70 employees and outsource their jobs to Mexico.

"That's turned out to be great," says Ignite! President Ken Leonard.

But Ignite!, which pays Bush $180,000 a year, is not his only business interest. Last year, Winston Wong -- a Taiwanese businessman and an investor in Ignite! -- signed Bush to that $2 million consulting deal with Grace Semiconductor, the company that Wong founded in partnership with the Chinese government. Bush has not yet received any compensation because the contract calls for him to be paid after board meetings and, he said by e-mail, "I was unable to attend their one and only board meeting."

A spokesman for Grace declined to comment.

Kevin Phillips, historian and author of the forthcoming book "American Dynasty: Aristocracy, Fortune and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush," sees Neil Bush as a man who has made a career of cashing in on his famous name.

"He's incorrigible," Phillips says. "He seems to be crawling through the underbelly of crony capitalism."

Bush vehemently denies that contention. "I have never used my family name to 'cash-in,' " Bush wrote by e-mail. "Unfortunately, such ridiculous charges come with the territory of coming from a famous and public family."

Fire and Disdain

"We create these prisonlike environments," Neil Bush said, "then we take our hunter-warrior types and label them attention-deficit disordered and put them on drugs."

It was the spring of 2002 and Bush was speaking about education at Whitney High School in Cerritos, Calif., considered one of the best public schools in America. He was touting Ignite!, which was being tested there. In the audience was writer Edward Humes, taking notes for his book on Whitney, "School of Dreams," published last summer.

Ignite! is designed, Bush said, to make learning fun for "hunter-warrior" kids who don't like reading. It's a computer curriculum that uses music, graphics and animation to teach middle school kids.

The program's first course -- eighth-grade American history -- was tested over the last two years in schools in a dozen states. Available commercially for the first time this year, it is being used by about 40,000 students in 120 school districts, mostly in Texas, at a cost of about $30 per pupil.

One school that uses Ignite! is Mendez Middle, a predominantly poor and Hispanic school in Austin. After three years of using the program, says Principal Connie Barr, the number of students who passed the state's eighth-grade history test has risen from 50 percent to 87 percent. "That's incredible," says Barr. "It doesn't replace the teacher or the textbook. What it does is give the teacher another way to deliver the information."

However, Ignite! has been attacked by other educators for dumbing down history. Among its controversial aspects is a lesson that depicts the Seminole Wars in a cartoon football game -- "the Jacksons vs. the Seminoles" -- the animated Indians smashing helmets with animated white settlers. The Constitutional Convention is taught in a rap song:

It was 55 delegates from 12 states

Took one hot Philadelphia summer to create

A perfect document for their imperfect times

Franklin, Madison, Washington -- a lot of the cats

Who used to be in the Continental Congress way back.

Ignite! is working well, Bush wrote in an e-mail: "Teachers and students have given anecdotal feedback that confirms the powerful impact our program is having on student achievement, student focus and attitudes, and teacher success in reaching all of their students."

But at Whitney reviews were less laudatory. "The kids felt pretty strongly that what this was about was lowering the bar," says Humes.

Humes wasn't impressed, either. "There was a lot of rhyming and games," he says. "It reminded me of what my son uses -- but he's in kindergarten."

When Bush spoke at Whitney, several students began arguing with him.

"He was very surprised," Humes recalls. "You had to see the look on his face when one young woman got up and said she liked calculus. He said it was useless. This is the branch of mathematics that makes space travel possible, and he said it was useless."

Tabloid Heaven

Even before the voodoo story and the paternity rumor and the defamation suit about the paternity rumor, Neil Bush's divorce was a candidate for the Nasty Breakup Hall of Fame.

It all began in 2002, when Bush informed his wife -- via e-mail -- that he no longer loved her and wanted a divorce.

At least that's the way Sharon Bush told the story back when she was still talking to reporters. Neil has never discussed the divorce in public, except in that now-famous deposition, in which he described his marriage as "loveless" with "no affection" and "very little sexual activity over the past 10 or 12 years."

Sharon, 51, claimed she was shocked to learn that her husband of 22 years had taken up with Maria Andrews, 40, a volunteer helping Neil's mother, former first lady Barbara Bush, with her correspondence. Andrews is the ex-wife of a Houston oil executive and the mother of three children.

Andrews is "very pretty -- petite is the best word for her," says John Spalding, a Houston lawyer and a friend of Neil Bush's. "She's just great, and she and Neil are great together."

Sharon Bush did not want a divorce, particularly on her husband's terms, which she considered insufficiently generous. She launched a counterattack by hiring New York PR whiz Lou Colasuonno, a man who knows tabloids, having served as the editor of both the New York Post and the New York Daily News.

Colasuonno's opening gambit was a sure-fire attention-getter: In April 2003, he announced that Sharon was seeking a publisher for a tell-all book about the Bush family.

"This is a woman who has had some wonderful times with the Bushes," Colasuonno told the New York Observer. "But she has seen the dark side, too. And she intends to provide a view of the family that everyone will want to read."

Next, Colasuonno arranged -- and publicized -- a lunch date between Sharon and Kitty Kelley, the celebrity biographer from Hell, who is working on a book on the Bush dynasty.

"I learned a great deal about the Bush family from Sharon," Kelley told The Washington Post after the lunch. "She told me he's only offering $1,000 a month in support -- take it or leave it. . . . She said that when she told Neil she needs more to live on, Neil Bush said, 'Just get remarried.' Sharon was sobbing as she told me, 'Kitty, I just won't sell my body!' "

Whew! After that, Colasuonno says, Neil increased his offer considerably, and the final settlement gave Sharon about $30,000 a year in alimony, plus $750 a month for her two minor children, Pierce, 17, and Ashley, 14. (The couple's oldest child, Lauren -- a Princeton student and a fashion model -- is 19.)

But on the day the divorce was to be finalized -- April 28 -- Sharon told the judge that she wasn't sure she wanted to go through with it. "I believe in working through a marriage," she testified, "and I don't believe in divorce with three children."

Then, under oath, Sharon asked the judge to order "a DNA sampling of Maria Andrews's youngest child," a 2-year-old boy, because she "had cause for believing that it could possibly be his [Neil's] child."

The judge denied the request. The divorce became final that day, but the battle raged on.

In July, Sharon appeared on Houston's KHOU-TV News, telling her tale of woe. Somehow the station obtained a videotape of Neil Bush's deposition and aired juicy bits from his account of his Asian hotel exploits.

That upped the ante in the publicity war. Soon, Neil's friend Spalding was calling reporters with a choice morsel of his own: Sharon had yanked hair out of Neil's head, Spalding said, so she could make a voodoo doll and put a curse on her ex-husband.

"It was bizarre," Spalding says. "She literally pulled his hair and yanked it out of his head. He told me about it."

Sharon admitted doing that and also said she collected some from his hairstylist's floor. But it was not for voodoo, she told the Houston Chronicle. Neil was acting so erratically, she said, that she wanted to test the hair for signs of drug use. The tests were inconclusive, she said.

Neil responded by authorizing his lawyer to say he didn't use drugs.

At that point, it looked like the Bush divorce couldn't get much cheesier. But in September, Robert Andrews, ex-husband of Maria Andrews, sued Sharon Bush for defamation over her claims that Neil is the father of the 2-year-old. She spread the rumor, his lawsuit alleged, to news outlets, friends and "fast food restaurant employees." He demanded $850,000 in damages.

Then Sharon responded by asking the court to order Neil as well as Robert Andrews to provide DNA samples.

Then Andrews's attorney, Dale Jefferson, suggested a novel Texas-style "put-up-or-shut-up" solution: "We'll put up $850,000 and Sharon Bush can put up $850,000," Jefferson said. "And if she's right and Neil Bush is the father of that child, she gets Mr. Andrews's $850,000, and if we're right, we get her $850,000."

Then . . . no, that's enough of this folly. It's time to stop wallowing in the gutter. It's time to take the high road, to raise the sensitive questions worthy of high-minded people.

Like: How is Neil Bush holding up under the relentless onslaught of embarrassing publicity? How is the son of one president and the brother of another doing these days?

Just fine, thank you, his friends say.

"He's very optimistic and he's got very thick skin," says Spalding. "He's a very happy guy and he's in a great relationship, and he says, 'This will all blow over.' "

"He has real pluck about him," says Lud Ashley. "He keeps his chin up."

These days Bush divides his time between Texas -- home of his children and Ignite! -- and Paris, where Maria Andrews is living so her children can learn French.

"Neil is very much in love," says Rex John, a Houston PR man who is the godfather of Bush's daughter Lauren. "As his friend, I just really enjoy seeing him so happy because for so many years he was not happy."

"Neil and Maria are incredibly affectionate with each other and with friends," says Spalding's wife, Laura, who is Maria Andrews's attorney. "It's fun to watch them together because they're so in love."

Somehow, even after all his travails, it's still nice to be Neil Bush.

© 2003 The Washington Post Company
 
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Democrats need to cut the “Kumbayah crap” from their rhetoric, James Carville said Thursday night.

Carville: Dems need stronger narrative to win

October 07, 2005

The problem with Democrat campaign speeches is “litany,” and they need more narrative like Winnie the Pooh stories, political consultant and pundit James Carville said.

At a speech sponsored by the Northwestern College Democrats Thursday evening, Carville told the audience that Democratic candidates can’t succeed by shouting out to every group in a crowd. Instead candidates should tell stories with the three elements of any good story — setup, conflict and resolution.

“No Kumbayah crap,” Carville said.

College Democrats brought Carville to speak in Cahn auditorium with funds from the $60,000 allotted by the Student Activities Finance Board for the group’s fall speakers.

Jenna Carls, president of College Democrats, said the group decided to bring Carville after polling about 50 students in the spring.

The organization will use the remaining funds to bring another speaker later this quarter, Carls said.

All 1,000 available tickets for the free event were taken by 1:05 p.m. Tuesday, according to the Norris Box Office. Tickets went on sale Sept. 23, the same day as NU’s Activities Fair. During the past few days, College Democrats worked to spread the word by placing more flyers and sending more messages to campus listservs, Carls said.

Carville helped lead Bill Clinton to victory in the 1992 presidential election. He has also worked on several foreign campaigns and co-hosted CNN’s “Crossfire” for more than two years before the network canceled the show in June.

At NU Carville focused on what Democrats need to do to reclaim the presidency. The vocal impressions of President George W. Bush and former presidential candidate John Kerry and Carville’s bouts of shouting in his southern accent had the audience alternatively giggling and freezing in silence.

In addition to breaking away from a laundry list of special interests, Carville said, Democrats need to learn that a candidate who can’t campaign can’t succeed.

“If you’re not competent in campaigns, you don’t have a chance to be competent in government,” he said.

Using Al Gore as an example, Carville said being a smart candidate is not enough.

“It’s actually possible to be wise, right and strong,” he said.

But Carville added that no one in Washington likes anyone who is right too often. Howard Dean’s accurate assessment about the failure of the war in Iraq helped kick him out of the running for president despite his passion, Carville said.

In the same way that intelligence and accuracy can’t stand alone, strength without accuracy is a catastrophe, he said. His example: the Republican administration.

“If we just had mediocracy I’d be the happiest person in the world,” Carville said. “You put political hacks in an important position and there are consequences.”

Weinberg freshman Amy Weiss said the College Democrats achieved their goal of exciting students with Carville’s speech.

“I’ve been a big James Carville fan for several years,” she said. “And I’ve been at school, so I feel so out of touch with current events. I feel I’d be interested in anything he’d talk about.”

But it’s not all about party spirit, Carville said.

Democrats need to bring their causes together and work for them actively, he said. For example, the political consultant suggested taking the specific issue of racial affirmative action and helping those of all races with income-based affirmative action.

If Democrats try to single out every issue, they’re back to litany, Carville said. He also said Democrats just can’t say “no” to causes from gay rights to abortion to the poor.

“Sometimes the problem with being a Democrat is being a Democrat,” he said.

© 2005 The Daily Northwestern
 
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Twitty learns true meaning of team at Sewanee

Sunday, October 09, 2005
Huntsville Times

Natalee Holloway's stepbrother deals with grief on field

SEWANEE, Tenn. - The spats of white tape wrapped around the football cleats were wet and dirty and grass-stained after a day's hard labor. The tape was frayed like the collar of an ancient shirt.

Still, the letters written in black ink on the tape were clearly visible.

N, on the left heel.

H, on the right heel.

N.H.

The initials of Natalee Holloway.

It was a tribute to the Birmingham teenager, missing in Aruba since May 30.

The initials were on the football cleats of George Twitty, a junior defensive back at the University of the South.

George Twitty is Natalee's stepbrother.

No matter how much tragedy life throws at you, you must move on. You cry. You get angry. You try to make sense of it. You cry some more.

You don't forget.

You also go to school. You go to work.

You even play a game.

And sometimes that game helps against the pain.

"It is (tough), especially right before a game when I go out there,'' Twitty said, standing in a soft mist late Saturday afternoon.

"But I've got some good friends here, and we've got a suite of guys that I live with that helps. Being on a team, and having people with you the whole time keeping you going, it's been good.''

Twitty then pulled back the cuff of his left glove, revealing an orange rubber bracelet with the words "One Nation.'' Most of his teammates wore one, too.

The wristbands were ordered for a prayer vigil for Natalee in Birmingham last summer. "George brought back a sack of them and we all grabbed 'em up in about a second,'' said assistant coach Carter Caldwell.

"It's nice having a team around you that you can talk to, and who help you out,'' Twitty said.

"He has such strength of character, the way he's dealt with it,'' said Sewanee head coach John Windham. "As hard as I can imagine it is, he's dealt with it beautifully. He's been encouraging all of us while we try to encourage him.''

They have needed each other.

Only a few days after Twitty returned from Aruba to join his family in the search for Natalee, he was back at Sewanee for a memorial service for a teammate, wide receiver Stephen Motley.

He was killed in a car wreck. He was 18.

The season has been difficult as well. The 34-0 loss to DePauw left the Tigers at 2-4. They don't play again until Oct. 22, at Rose-Hulman.

October 21 is Natalee Holloway's 19th birthday.

"I thought I was smart in high school (at Mountain Brook), but she just blew me out of the water,'' Twitty said. "She would tell me she got mad when she made a 97. I'm keeping my A's, making a 90, and it's, 'Yea!'

"She was always happy, always excited,'' he said. "Just a good person. She always worked hard and she liked to have fun.''

Natalee was headed to Alabama on scholarship. As good an athlete as George may be - "he's a natural,'' Caldwell said - he wasn't big enough to play for the Tide. But, he said, "I just wanted to play football.''

Sewanee was perfect for him. He's been perfect for Sewanee.

In his first game, he intercepted a pass and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown, tying an NCAA record. He was all-conference last year. He returned another interception for a TD this season. He's No. 2 in tackles on the team.

He had seven tackles Saturday, then retired to the bench in the fourth quarter, scanning the sparsely populated stands, looking for family.

Looking, as he had done on happier, sunny days, to even see Natalee there.

On Saturday, George's father "Jug'' Twitty was there, collar turned up against the cold and wearing a Mountain Brook cap. Father and son found each other on the damp field.

After 10 minutes or so, they said their goodbyes. Jug gathered his son in a consoling hug.

How many hugs has this family had in these five months, offering or seeking consolation?

How many hugs will it take before the ache subsides a little?

And how much must it help, after the touch of those hugs is no longer felt, to be surrounded by teammates, one team as one nation, gathering around you like the perfect circle of an orange bracelet?

© 2005 The Huntsville Times
 
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Inflation Fears May Overshadow Earnings

Sunday October 9, 9:23 PM EDT

NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices fell substantially last week, yet the stock market dropped to its lowest levels since early July. People who are used to seeing stocks rise as oil prices fall could very well wonder what happened. Richard Fisher happened.

Fisher is the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and, as such, sits on the Federal Reserve's committee that sets interest rate policy. In two speeches last week, Fisher said inflation was rising near the high end of the Fed's tolerance level. Inflation, of course, is bad for the economy because consumers would have to pay higher prices for goods and services and would thus consume less.

The Fed's chief weapon against inflation is interest rates. By raising the nation's benchmark rate, the Fed makes it more expensive for corporations and individuals to borrow money. Business can't fund expansion as cheaply, and consumers pay more on their credit cards and variable rate mortgages. Prices remain stable, but the economy slows and corporate earnings shrink, making stocks less valuable.

Given the choice between runaway inflation and slowing the economy, the Fed will choose the latter, and it's a safe bet the central bank will continue raising rates through the end of the year. As a result, stocks headed south last week, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling 2.62 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 dropping 2.68 percent and the Nasdaq composite average losing 2.84 percent.

Faced with higher interest rates and consumers paying more for gas and heating bills, stocks will be hard-pressed to make up the losses this week. Strong corporate earnings and reassuring forecasts for the fourth quarter would help, but investors will look to the government's economic data in hopes that, in the end, it won't be as bad as they fear.

ECONOMIC DATA

The nation's key inflation report, the Labor Department's consumer price index, is due Friday. CPI for September is expected to rise 0.9 percent, up from an 0.5 percent increase in August. Core CPI, with energy and food prices removed, is expected to climb 0.2 percent versus August's 0.1 percent increase.
Obviously, higher-than-expected CPI figures won't help Wall Street recover from the past week, but lower numbers could spark a rally as investors anticipate the Fed backing off on rates.

The other key piece of the economic equation, the consumer, also will see scrutiny on Friday as the University of Michigan's widely watched consumer sentiment index is released. The preliminary reading for October is expected to rise to 80 from a reading of 76.9 last month, with economists and market watchers banking on slightly lower gasoline prices — and perhaps short memories — for a boost in sentiment.

Finally, the Commerce Department will release its aggregate report on September retail sales Thursday morning. Sales are expected to edge 0.2 percent higher in September, compared to a 2.1 percent drop in August. With volatile auto sales removed, sales growth is expected to drop to 0.6 percent in September from 1 percent the previous month, a troubling sign heading into the holiday shopping season.

EARNINGS

As has become Wall Street tradition, the quarterly earnings season starts Monday afternoon with the first Dow industrial to report, Alcoa Inc. The aluminum producer's stock has been hammered this year due to higher energy prices, and is down 34 percent from its 52-week high of $34.99 on Nov. 29, 2004. The company is expected to earn 29 cents per share in the third quarter, down from 34 cents per share a year ago. Alcoa closed Friday at $23.04.

Fellow Dow component General Electric Co., due to report earnings Friday morning, said last week it expects its earnings forecasts to hold firm — a move meant to assuage Wall Street, though it did little to stem the market's decline. GE is expected to earn 44 cents per share, compared to 38 cents per share in the third quarter of 2004. The company's stock has suffered along with the industrial sector, falling 9.4 percent from its 52-week high of $37.75 on Dec. 14, 2004, to close Friday at $34.22.

Apple Computer Inc. is expected to continue riding high on the success of its iPod line of music players, updated late in the quarter with the super-thin iPod Nano. The continued innovation of the instantly iconic technology has nearly tripled Apple's share price from its 52-week low of $18.825 on Dec. 12, 2004. The company is expected to earn 36 cents per share, compared to 16 cents per share last year, when it announces third-quarter earnings after Tuesday's trading session. Apple closed at $51.30 Friday.

EVENTS

On Tuesday afternoon, during the trading session, the Federal Reserve is expected to release the minutes from the Fed's Sept. 20 meeting. The Fed raised the nation's benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75 percent at that meeting, though for the first time, the vote was not unanimous. Investors will closely scrutinize the report for the Fed's take on inflation — perhaps to see whether Fisher is speaking for his colleagues or just himself.
 
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Refco puts CEO on leave over debt

Monday October 10, 10:03 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Refco Inc. (RFX) on Monday said it placed its chief executive on leave after the discovery of his involvement in a $430 million debt rendered years of financial statements unreliable, sending its shares down 34 percent.

The company, which went public in August and is one of the world's largest and most powerful commodities dealers, also said it would probably delay filing its 10-Q quarterly financial statement with securities regulators for the quarter ended August 31.

Refco said it asked CEO Phillip Bennett, who is also chairman, to take the leave of absence after discovering a receivable of about $430 million owed by an entity he controlled. The debt has since been repaid with interest.

Santo Maggio, president and chief executive of Refco Securities LLC and Refco Capital Markets, Ltd., was also asked to take a leave of absence.

A company spokeswoman could not provide further details on Maggio's departure.

Refco has hired independent counsel and forensic auditors to help its board investigate issues related to Bennett.

An internal review thus far has shown Bennett, without telling the company, gained control of the $430 million receivable it had considered possibly uncollectable.

Had Bennett disclosed his control of the receivable, the company's financial statements would have reflected that.

But given the way the debt was accounted for, Refco said it determined that financial statements for 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 are not reliable.

The broker said it cannot estimate when its 10-Q filing will be made or when the audit committee will finish its investigation.

William Sexton, who recently announced his resignation as Refco's chief operating officer, will instead remain with the company and has been appointed CEO.

Refco said it believes all customer funds on deposit are unaffected by the issues surrounding the receivable.

The company's shares did not yet open on the New York Stock Exchange, but they were down $9.83 at $18.73 on the Inet electronic brokerage.
 
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[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif][size=+0][font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Mattel to consolidate divisions
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Monday October 10, 4:55 PM EDT
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mattel Inc. (MAT) said on Monday it was consolidating its Mattel Brands and Fisher-Price Brands divisions into one division called "Brands."

The toy maker said former Fisher-Price Brands president, Neil Friedman, has been promoted to president of brands, and Matthew Bousquette, the former president of Mattel Brands, will "pursue other business ventures."

©2005 Reuters Limited.
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WHEN THE EARTH MOVES

Robertson: Disasters point to 2nd Coming
Evangelist observes quakes, hurricanes 'starting to hit with amazing regularity'

Posted: October 9, 2005
© 2005 WorldNetDaily.com

VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. – This weekend's catastrophic earthquake in South Asia in the wake of recent U.S. hurricanes and December's tsunami is catching the eye of televangelist Pat Robertson, who says we "might be" in the End Times described in the Bible.

"These things are starting to hit with amazing regularity," Robertson said on CNN's "Late Edition."


Robertson, a former GOP presidential candidate and host of the "700 Club" daily Christian TV show, noted, "If you read back in the Bible, the letter of the apostle Paul to the church of Thessalonia, he said that in the latter days before the end of the age that the Earth would be caught up in what he called the birth pangs of a new order. And for anybody who knows what it's like to have a wife going into labor, you know how these labor pains begin to hit. I don't have any special word that says this is that, but it could be suspiciously like that."

"What was called the blessed hope of the Bible is that one day Jesus Christ would come back again, start a whole new era, that this world order that we know would change into something that would be wonderful that we'd call the millennium," he continued. "And before that good time comes there will be some difficult days and there will be likened to what a woman goes through in labor just before she brings forth a child."

When asked if the world was approaching that moment, Robertson said, "It's possible. I don't have any special revelation to say it is but the Bible does indicate such a time will happen in the end of time. And could this be it? It might be."

Hurricane Katrina left more than 1,200 people dead in the Gulf Coast region of the U.S., while the rising death toll from this weekend's earthquake in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India is in the 20,000 to 30,000 range thus far.

On Dec. 26, an estimated 275,000 people lost their lives from a tsunami sparked by an undersea earthquake in the Indian Ocean.

Some New Testament verses often cited by Christians regarding signs of the end of this present age before the return of Jesus to Earth include:


"For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places. All these are the beginning of sorrows." (Matthew 24:7-8)

"And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring;" (Luke 21:25).

Robertson isn't the only one raising the End Times issue, as author and WorldNetDaily columnist Hal Lindsey has weighed in.

"It seems clear that the prophetic times I have been expecting for decades have finally arrived. And even worse, it appears that the judgment of America has begun," Lindsey said on the Sept. 9 broadcast of the "International Intelligence Briefing" on the Trinity Broadcasting Network. "I warn continually that the last days lineup of world powers does not include anything resembling the United States of America. Instead, a revived Roman Empire in Europe is to rule the West, and then the world. "

As WND reported last month, Robertson suggested the assassination of Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.

"We have the ability to take him out, and I think the time has come that we exercise that ability," he said, though he later backed away from the suggestion of assassination, stating he was taken out of context.

Robertson revisited his concerns about Chavez today, telling CNN, "The truth is, this man is setting up a Marxist-type dictatorship in Venezuela, he's trying to spread Marxism throughout South America, he's negotiating with the Iranians to get nuclear material and he also sent 1.2 million dollars in cash to Osama bin Laden right after 9-11."

"I've written him. I apologized and I said I will be praying for him, but one day we will be staring at nuclear weapons and it won't be [Hurricane] Katrina facing New Orleans, it's going to be a Venezuelan nuke," Robertson said.

When asked where he got the information about cash going from Chavez to bin Laden, Robertson said it was from "sources," though WND has previously reported on the connection.

"That's what I was told," Robertson said. "And I know he sent a warm, congratulatory letter to Carlos the Jackal. He's a friend of Moammar Gadhafi. He's made common cause with these people who are considered terrorists."
 
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Harriet Miers contributed to Hillary's election in 2000

Posted: October 9, 2005

© 2005 WorldNetDaily.com


On May 17, 2000, while Harriet Miers was managing the law firm of Locke Liddell from the firm's Dallas office, she contributed $415 to the law firm's political action committee. Federal Election Commission reports show that two days later, Locke Liddell's PAC contributed $1,000 to Hillary Rodham Clinton's Senate Campaign Committee. For an unexplained reason, Harriet Miers listed herself as a "self-employed attorney," according to the FEC Report on her 2000 contribution to the Locke Liddell PAC.

FEC records also show a $500 contribution on Feb. 15, 2000, by the Locke Liddell PAC to Democrat Nicholas Lampson, who ran unsuccessfully against Tom DeLay.

Locke Liddell's contributions also reached out to out-of-state Democratic congressmen. According to FEC records, on July 27, 2000, the Locke Liddell PAC contributed $1,000 to Richard Gephardt's congressional re-election campaign in Missouri. Locke Liddell also supported Democrats in Louisiana, contributing $1,000 to Mary Landrieu, on Dec. 4, 2000, and $1,000 to the campaign of Louisana Congressman William Jennings Jefferson on June 6, 2000.

Locke Liddell's PAC contributed to the re-election campaign of Houston Democratic Congressman Kenneth Edward Bentsen Jr., nephew of Congressman Lloyd Bentsen. The law firm also supported the congressional campaigns of Texas Democrats Lloyd Doggett, Chet Edwards, Martin Frost, Sheila Jackson Lee, and Max Sandlin. In 2000, three separate contributions were made to the campaign of Texas Democrat Regina Montoya Coggins, who ran unsuccessfully against Congressman Pete Sessions – the records also reflect two contributions to Pete Sessions in 2000.

Of the 24 candidates supported by Locke Liddell's PAC in the years 1999-2000, a majority of 14 were to Democrats. These were years in which Harriet Miers was co-managing partner of the law firm.

Harriet Miers has already indicated that she switched from Democrat to Republican, suggesting she voted for Ronald Reagan, despite making campaign contributions to Al Gore and Bill Clinton in the 1990s. Until now, there had been no discussion that Harriet Miers' campaign contributions had also ended up supporting Hillary Clinton, as well as opposing the re-elections of Majority Leader Tom Delay and Republican Texas Congressman Pete Sessions.

The records came to light over the weekend, in an FEC response to a request by the Republican Study Committee to see Harriet Miers' campaign contributions, dating back to 1980. Searching the FEC records for the contributions made by Locke Liddell's PAC brought to light the 2000 contribution to Hillary Clinton's campaign and the contributions made to oppose the re-election of Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

The Republican Study Committee is a group of over 100 conservative House Republicans, chaired by Representative Mike Pence of Indiana.
 
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Why Miers must be defeated

Posted: October 10, 2005
© 2005 WorldNetDaily.com

Imagine if Bill Clinton had nominated his personal attorney and White House counsel to a post on the U.S. Supreme Court.

Somehow, I can't imagine my conservative friends supporting the nominee – particularly if there were questions about controversial documents being destroyed that might actually shed light on scandals of the past.

The stunning series of articles by WND columnist Jerome Corsi, raising serious and nagging questions about Harriet Miers' role as chairman of the Texas Lottery Commission and the cover-up of the way that story intersects with George W. Bush's National Guard service, points up why this kind of cronyism was frowned upon by the Founding Fathers.

In fact, this is the very reason the framers of our Constitution called for the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate in all Supreme Court nominations.

If we are all honest with ourselves, it is clear Miers' name was put forward for one major reason – she is a friend and confidante of the president. Her selection is clearly a reward for services rendered and for her loyalty to the president.

Those do not make for qualifications for the Supreme Court, but, according to the men who debated and authored the Constitution, they should disqualify her.

For instance, in Federalist Paper 76, Alexander Hamilton explains why his colleagues gave the Senate power to confirm or reject Supreme Court nominees:

To what purpose then require the co-operation of the Senate? I answer, that the necessity of their concurrence would have a powerful, though, in general, a silent operation. It would be an excellent check upon a spirit of favoritism in the President, and would tend greatly to prevent the appointment of unfit characters from State prejudice, from family connection, from personal attachment ...

The idea clearly was to shame a president from promoting cronies to the high court.

[The president] would be both ashamed and afraid to bring forward, for the most distinguished or lucrative stations, candidates who had no other merit than that of coming from the same State to which he particularly belonged, or of being in some way or other personally allied to him, or of possessing the necessary insignificance and pliancy to render them the obsequious instruments of his pleasure.

Can anyone argue, on the basis of these clear statements, that the Founders steadfastly opposed the idea of Supreme Court appointments such as Harriet Miers or Abe Fortas during the Lyndon Johnson era?

The idea was to create an independent judiciary, not one beholden to the executive branch of the federal government.

But George W. Bush does not shame so easily.

Now it's up to the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate to decide if it, too, is little more than a rubber stamp for the president.

There have been many perfectly rotten Supreme Court nominations in the past. Harriet Miers is certainly not the worst. But with the American people clamoring as never before for real judicial reform – starting in the Supreme Court – and with an abundance of qualified potential nominees from which to draw, this nomination should be withdrawn or defeated by the U.S. Senate.

I know few in Congress care about the original intent of the Founders. I know few in Congress understand the original intent of the Founders. I know most members of the House and Senate violate the spirit and the letter of the Constitution on a daily basis. But senators who claim to be voting for Harriet Miers because she is an "originalist" should indeed be ashamed.

Her very nomination is in direct contradiction to the vision of the heroic and inspired men who shaped and framed all that made America great and unique in the history of the world.
 
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Delphi Bankruptcy A Piviotal Point That Can Shape Detroit's Future

DETROIT, Oct 10, 2005; Tom Brown writing for Reuters reported that courtroom proceedings in a landmark case that could reshape the U.S. auto industry and hurt many people who depend on it for their livelihoods get under way on Tuesday.

That's when opening motions are due to be heard in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York on the Chapter 11 filing by auto parts supplier Delphi Corp. that rocked the American auto industry over the weekend.

With its move, Delphi -- in effect going to war with the United Auto Workers union -- announced plans to downsize domestic operations while slashing union wages and health-care benefits.

The largest U.S. parts maker also wants to free itself from pension obligations to tens of thousands of employees it inherited from General Motors Corp. when it was spun off from the automaker in 1999. Delphi argues that GM is liable for the pension obligations under terms of the spinoff.

There are many issues at stake in the case, which came to a head after talks among Delphi, the UAW and GM failed to produce agreement on a bailout plan for the struggling supplier.

Among the thorniest problems will be deciding who is responsible for post-retirement and health-care benefits that GM, which shares many of the same problems that sent Delphi into Chapter 11, has said could cost it up to $11 billion.

The broader issue, however, is whether Delphi will get a court-ordered mandate to tear up its labor contracts with the UAW and set dramatically lower wage and benefit levels for its U.S. hourly employees.

Alluding to that possibility, UAW leaders said in a statement on Saturday that it would be "an extremely bitter pill" to swallow.

"I think this case is, in fact, a watershed. I think what it does is -- in the most dramatic way we've seen to date -- it introduces the wages of the global economy into Main Street in Michigan, Ohio and elsewhere," said Harley Shaiken, a professor at the University of California-Berkeley specializing in labor issues.

"SET IN CHINA"

"Delphi has essentially said: 'We need competitive wages.' Those wages currently are being set in China, not Flint, (Michigan)," Shaiken said.

Auto industry analyst Maryann Keller said the Delphi case could change the face of Detroit and the U.S. auto industry by ending decades of UAW de facto control over wages and benefits and putting it in the hands of a bankruptcy judge.

If Delphi gets its way, every other supplier and automaker with UAW labor contracts will seek to to match the terms of Delphi's court-ordered labor agreement, Keller said.

"I don't know how any of this will be resolved except to say that, ultimately, UAW workers are going to get paid less and they're going to have fewer benefits," she said.

"It doesn't have to mean the end of the UAW. But it certainly means that the promise that somebody could have an upper-middle income compensation within the auto industry is over," she added, referring to hourly or blue-collar workers.

In court papers filed over the weekend, Delphi said it would ask a judge to void its labor contracts if it cannot reach a restructuring agreement with its unions by mid-December. The company said it plans to submit written proposed contract changes to the unions on or before Oct. 21.

Shaiken warned that the UAW remains a force to be reckoned with, however, and said the outcome of the Delphi bankruptcy was far from certain.

"Because they (Delphi) have considerable leverage at a moment of bankruptcy is not the same as saying the UAW is out of the game," Shaiken said.

Among other tactics, he said the UAW could stage potentially crippling strikes, affecting not just Delphi but the industry at large, if the union sees itself as having nothing left to lose.

"There is more than one way out of this canyon they are in right now," said Shaiken, referring to the UAW and the possibility that it could still reach a negotiated settlement with Delphi in the coming weeks.

"They're going to try to make an argument that simply cutting wages, slashing benefits, etc., is not the only way to go. Whether the bankruptcy judge buys that remains an open question."

If things do swing Delphi's way, it seems clear that even GM -- its potential courtroom adversary -- would be happy, however. Globalization could finally signal an end to what Detroit auto executives often bemoan as their onerous labor costs and "Cadillac-style" UAW benefits.

"The choice is no longer between keeping the same job or keeping the same job at a lower wage," GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz told local radio on Monday. "The choice is now keeping the same job at less compensation or having no jobs at all in this country."

One in eight Americans depend on the auto industry directly or indirectly for their livelihoods, Shaiken said.

Copyright ©The Auto Channel
 
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