Gold, Silver, etc...

[Wimpy]

What a read! That's some SERIOUS outside the box thinking. I don't think I could pull a move like that though, Wizard. I've gotta 1600sf home in West San Antonio... with just a $580 note; 15year 4.75% fixed. I could rent mine out for an easy $850.
Your brother made a great move.

You are in a great position Fivetears!

We are currently RENTING a townhome for $200 less a month than the owner's mortgage payment.

Those who are overweighted in real estate, due to the bubble. would benefit greatly by either selling and renting or buying in Texas. I really like the River Walk.

 

[Quips]

Re: Gold/Oil

Newmont Seeking to Sell Oil-Sands Leases in Alberta (Update1)
May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Newmont Mining Corp., the world's largest gold producer, is seeking to sell Alberta oil-sands leases that may fetch up to C$600 million ($541 million) for an investment of less than $1 million in 1999.

Newmont spokeswoman Deb Witmer confirmed in an interview today that the Denver-based company is exploring options for its BlackGold leases. A notice of the offering was posted on the Web site of Scotia Waterous, a unit of Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia that's advising Newmont.

The company is seeking to capitalize on surging global interest in Alberta's tar-like oil reserves, estimated to be the largest outside of the Middle East, as oil prices surge and conventional reserves become harder to find. Oil futures traded in New York are 43 percent higher than a year ago after touching a record $75.35 a barrel on April 21.

``There's now a market for this stuff,'' Richard Wyman, senior oil analyst at Calgary brokerage Canaccord Adams, said in an interview. ``Five years ago, nobody cared'' about oil-sands assets, he said.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc's Canadian unit agreed on May 8 to pay C$2.4 billion for BlackRock Ventures Inc., or about C$4 per barrel of reserves owned by the Calgary-based oil-sands producer. Newmont's reserves may sell for C$1.50 per barrel because its project is less developed than BlackRock's, Wyman said.

Shares of Newmont fell 83 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $53.48 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has risen 52 percent in the past year.

Reserves

BlackGold contains an estimated 305 million barrels of oil capable of producing 35,000 barrels of oil a day, according to the notice from Scotia Waterous. The gold producer is willing to take cash, cash and shares, or cash and a retained royalty, the notice said.

High oil prices contributed to Newmont's decision to explore options and see what bids it would get for BlackGold, Witmer said.

``The oil sands are at a pretty high value,'' she said. ``It's an opportune time to look at getting the max value out of it.''

Newmont owns three leases covering 9,600 acres located near oil-sands properties controlled by EnCana Corp., Devon Energy Corp. and Nexen Inc., according to the Scotia Waterous Web site.

The company acquired long-term leases from Alberta's government in 1999 for ``less than $1 million,'' David Harquail, Newmont's vice president of merchant banking, said in a Sept. 27 interview.

`Lot of Interest'

The assets may fetch up to C$2 per barrel, or as much as about C$600 million, said Mark Friesen, an analyst at Calgary brokerage FirstEnergy Capital Corp.

``I think there will be a lot of interest from existing oil- sands participants'' and companies not active in the region, Friesen said in an interview. ``It's a pretty good area.''

Shell, EnCana Corp. and other producers are spending billions to boost output from Alberta's oil sands.

``There is strong interest'' in BlackGold, said Cheryl Sandercock, a director of Scotia Waterous. ``It's big enough for a good-sized project, but it's not absolutely colossal so it could be of interest to a fair suite of parties.''

Newmont's reserves are buried too deep for mining and must be developed with wells, she said. An extra-heavy crude extracted from the oil sands can be refined into gasoline, diesel and other fuels.

Bids are due June 14 and the transaction will likely close by September, Sandercock said.

 

[Fivetears]

You are in a great position Fivetears!

We are currently RENTING a townhome for $200 less a month than the owner's mortgage payment.

Those who are overweighted in real estate, due to the bubble. would benefit greatly by either selling and renting or buying in Texas. I really like the River Walk.

I've grown kinda attached to my very humble payment; kinda like the house too. San Antonio has been my home since 1991... and like you've sorta said before... Americans and our government have problem living beyond thier means and overspending. I guess I'm doing my part not to play into "keeping up with the Jones's." I have lotsa beer, travel and investment money as a result.

 

[pyriel]

Renting looks real good right now. I hear the property tax reevaluations are looking really ugly.

My brother has a great deal. He sold his house last August to a "investor" and now he is renting the same house. He never moved. The "investor" wants to pay him $50,000 now to break his lease and pay half the moving costs because his ARM is going to reset and he no longer can afford the property and wants to put it on the market to sell it.

The house value has fallen about 10% since my brother sold it and my brother is paying $400 a month less then what his mortgage was for and he no longer pays property taxes. His total savings is over $900 a month plus he sold at 10% higher.

House prices are the one thing that can not be saved during this fed rate hike. First has to be USD, second keep bond yields contained, third stock prices (pension benefits), then probably housing prices. They will not be able to help any longer term but that is probably the game plan.

On a real estate investor like me this sounds fishy. Can you please provide the following detail:
1. how much did you brother sell the house and term of the investor's mortgage loan
2. how long is the lease?
3. How much is the rental lease agreement.
The reason why I am asking is that a seasoned investor will not buy an overprice house and rent it less than the rental market. Plus, factoring in property tax, vacancy rate, maintenance, and interest rate (in this case it must have been a very low rate since its an ARM) and what is the ARM (1 yr or 3 yrs or 5 yrs)
Just by looking at this first hand, I would say that the person is a speculator and not a real estate investor. P

 

[Wizard]

The investor was looking to buy a retirement home close to the beach, not in a humid area, but they could not move into for a number of years due to children issues but was worried they would be priced out of their retirement location based on past housing returns.

Maybe it is the term investor. Anyone that owns more then one home to me is an investor.

 

[Fivetears]

Hey Wizard... I just read where in 1980 gold spiked to $641 an oz, then lost half its value by the year 2000.
http://www.finfacts.com/Private/curency/goldmarketprice.htm
Since this could possibly repeat... wouldn't it be advisable (at some point) to consider selling it, and then buy it back later? Buying gold at today’s prices just seems so cost prohibitive for alot of us.
Do you have any recommendations

 

[Spartan]

In 1970 Gold rallied from 50$/oz to 650$/oz then collapsed to 300$/oz.

If we are actually reliving this past occurence, then the proportional rally shall be Gold at 3650$/oz and a collapse to 1785$/oz

Got Gold?

 

[pyriel]

The investor was looking to buy a retirement home close to the beach, not in a humid area, but they could not move into for a number of years due to children issues but was worried they would be priced out of their retirement location based on past housing returns.

Maybe it is the term investor. Anyone that owns more then one home to me is an investor.

Again, this doesn't make sense... We have some people who are close to retirement here and I for one don't think that an individual will buy a retirement home knowing that they could not move in due to children issues. At the same time, this same individual bought an overpriced house with ridiculous ARM deal. I say overpriced and ridiculous because you mentioned that he is willing to pay your brother 50k plus moving expense. I've been tinkering with the math on this one and it just doesn't compute. 1) To have someon pay 50k plus moving expense on a rental lease which could not have been other than a yearly lease. Sorry but i've never seen a multiple year lease on a residential. It might work if it is for commercial and I have one now that is leased for 5 years with 10% yearly increase in rent. 2) You said that the real estate market had already dropped 10% so additional 50k plus moving expense will just put him more in the hole and if the market is dropping there is a possibility that the house will not be sold. No sane man would do such a thing which is why I question your post.
I don't think it exist and if it did, I think it is overblown. P

 

[Wizard]

No sane man would do such a thing which is why I question your post.

You are correct. The owner is a single female. The area is in the Boston area. That housing area has turned totally south. The investor is from Michigan.

Suddenly, area's housing market favors the buyers

From the South End to the South Shore to Cape Ann, the list of unsold properties is growing, and so are reductions in asking prices. Attractive houses in good locations with seemingly appropriate pricetags are getting scant interest. Real estate agents, who six months ago played host to streams of buyers, are now presiding over open houses that draw few if any lookers.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma...reas_housing_market_favors_the_buyers/?page=1

This story is from October. My brother sold in August.

Don't fret, this will move across the U.S. like a wave. Get ready! Denial is also a river. :worried:

 

[Wizard]

Hey Wizard... I just read where in 1980 gold spiked to $641 an oz, then lost half its value by the year 2000.
http://www.finfacts.com/Private/curency/goldmarketprice.htm
Since this could possibly repeat... wouldn't it be advisable (at some point) to consider selling it, and then buy it back later? Buying gold at today’s prices just seems so cost prohibitive for alot of us.
Do you have any recommendations

Hold on, Sugar.

Daddy, will let you know when to sell. Sorry watched "The Mask" on cable yesterday. Smoking.

Gold is in a "real" bull market. The value alone of protecting yourself against the falling USD is worth it. Buy dips and stay on the bull.

 

[Wizard]

In 1970 Gold rallied from 50$/oz to 650$/oz then collapsed to 300$/oz.

If we are actually reliving this past occurence, then the proportional rally shall be Gold at 3650$/oz and a collapse to 1785$/oz

Got Gold?

Priced in gold the DOW is down 26% this year.

 

[Wizard]

Hey Wizard... I just read where in 1980 gold spiked to $641 an oz, then lost half its value by the year 2000.
http://www.finfacts.com/Private/curency/goldmarketprice.htm
Since this could possibly repeat... wouldn't it be advisable (at some point) to consider selling it, and then buy it back later? Buying gold at today’s prices just seems so cost prohibitive for alot of us.
Do you have any recommendations

Sorry missed half your question.

Gold fell because Paul Volker's policy allowed interest rates to skyrocket. As you know this fed really want to pause or stop but can't. This economy is now a service and not a manufactoring economy anymore, where we can grow ourselves out of debt. The economy can not handle rates much above where they are now - however that spells the end to the USD and our ability to borrow.

PM me if you have any other questions. If I get told I am idiot one more time my head is going to explode. Would rather just take the "what and whys" upstairs now.

 

[Wizard]

Dee Top?????????

California home for sale for $75 million

A Southern California oceanfront home would break a record if sold for its $75 million listing price, an analyst with the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsa...326_RTRUKOC_0_US-LIFE-HOME.xml&src=rss&rpc=22

Has that Yahoo is a buy at $500 feel to it. :embarrest:

 

[Spartan]

Commodities look like they are getting slammed today. Then again, what isn't? Heh, the USD!

But wait, when does inflation ACTUALLY mean that there is inflation? Spaf, we need the cartel quotes asap.

 

[Fivetears]

Sorry missed half your question.

Gold fell because Paul Volker's policy allowed interest rates to skyrocket. As you know this fed really want to pause or stop but can't. This economy is now a service and not a manufactoring economy anymore, where we can grow ourselves out of debt. The economy can not handle rates much above where they are now - however that spells the end to the USD and our ability to borrow.

PM me if you have any other questions. If I get told I am idiot one more time my head is going to explode. Would rather just take the "what and whys" upstairs now.

Thanks Wizard.

 

[Wimpy]

Again, this doesn't make sense... We have some people who are close to retirement here and I for one don't think that an individual will buy a retirement home knowing that they could not move in due to children issues. At the same time, this same individual bought an overpriced house with ridiculous ARM deal. I say overpriced and ridiculous because you mentioned that he is willing to pay your brother 50k plus moving expense. I've been tinkering with the math on this one and it just doesn't compute. 1) To have someon pay 50k plus moving expense on a rental lease which could not have been other than a yearly lease. Sorry but i've never seen a multiple year lease on a residential. It might work if it is for commercial and I have one now that is leased for 5 years with 10% yearly increase in rent. 2) You said that the real estate market had already dropped 10% so additional 50k plus moving expense will just put him more in the hole and if the market is dropping there is a possibility that the house will not be sold. No sane man would do such a thing which is why I question your post.
I don't think it exist and if it did, I think it is overblown. P

Possibly coming soon to a town near you (?) How would you like to be a homeowner in this neighborhood?

http://www.centexsacramento2daysale.com/2DaySale.html

 

[Wizard]

Housing starts and building permits were down sharply in April, and builder confidence is at its worst level in almost 12 years, according to an industry survey.

And the median price of existing home sales fell in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/18/news/economy/housing_impact/

 

[Fivetears]

Housing starts and building permits were down sharply in April, and builder confidence is at its worst level in almost 12 years, according to an industry survey.

And the median price of existing home sales fell in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/18/news/economy/housing_impact/

I tell ya Wizard... you'd never know it here in San Antonio; Houses upon houses going up. Schools. Buildings. Freeways. It's unbelievable.

 

[Wizard]

I tell ya Wizard... you'd never know it here in San Antonio; Houses upon houses going up. Schools. Buildings. Freeways. It's unbelievable.

Foreclosure numbers rise in Bexar County

A total of 680 properties in the county are set to go up for auction on June 6. This is a 9 percent increase in the number of foreclosures compared to May, the report indicates.

http://sanantonio.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2006/05/15/daily39.html

9% increase in one month = 108% annualized :blink: .

Foreclosure rate increases are the signal of a slowdown.

 

[Wimpy]

Fivetears is in a good position. If a homeowner could actually rent their home and the rent money received would cover the mortgage payments, insurance, and taxes...their home would not be considered 'overvalued' in the 'bubble' sense. It sounds like Fivetears' home would actually create a positive cash flow if he needed to rent it out for some reason. Since he likes the home he lives in and it is not 'overvalued' in the 'bubble' sense, it makes sense for him to stand pat.

If a person is not willing to sell their home when its value suggests that prices are peaking are simply homeowners vs real estate investors. There is nothing wrong with this.

However, any homeowner (vs investor), in this situation, who counts the value of their home as part of their net worth is only deceiving themselves because they are predestinated to hold the property through thick and thin. And, any homeowner, in this situation, who is drawing down their home equity, by using their home as an ATM machine, is doubly deceiving themselves. They are not only counting paper profits that will never be realized, as part of their net worth, but they are leveraging those unrealized profits and risk losing their 'shelter' when home values decline and/or they suffer the loss of a job, a riff, or a reorganization. In other words, they see themselves as real estate investors when in actuality they are not. In actuality, they are playing a very speculative game with one of their most basic needs...shelter. This is very evident when homeowners use their home as an ATM machine to purchase depreciating assets like vehicles.