Gold and the Market

Interesting: The only thing he is short right now is the EFA (our I-fund), although he didn't seem to describe it as the EAFE as the interviewer tried to suggest, but more of a play on just Portugal, Italy and Greece -which didn't make sense.
 
Found it. :laugh: I love listening to this guy. I think he's good but he's also very entertaining. Fast forward to 17:05.
ETFs, Toyota Recall, Muni Bonds, Berkshire Stock: Taking Stock
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Deborah Fuhr of BlackRock Advisors Ltd. in London talks with Bloomberg's Pimm Fox about exchange-traded funds. Scott Silverman of McCarter & English LLP discusses the recall by Toyota Motor Corp. Charles Nenner of Charles Nenner Research Center looks at market cycles.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/podcast/takingstock.html
 
B -
Do you have a link to that new Nenner interview? It's not in the link you gave, is it?

thanks
 
On an interview last week with Pimm Fox, Charles Nenner said the big trade right now is short US treasuries. He also said that we can forget the Gold for many months and that Goldman Sachs would show a bottom in the first few weeks of Feb 2010. When Pimm asked what month he thinks Gold will bottom, Nenner said he didn't know because he wasn't prepared for that question. He said that since there are aren't many opportunities for long term investors at this point, he didn't have his turn dates ready for the interview. GS may be making higher highs here.

If anything, Nenner's interviews are hilarious if you ever get the chance to listen to one of them.

As for Gold, a link from a metals analyst:

Now is a good time to short gold, but probably a better time to short gold would have been back in November, when it was $200/oz higher. If you look at inflation, you see inflation's actually quite low; core inflation is actually decreasing. So we don't have an inflation problem here. Plus, we have 10 percent unemployment and a large output gap still in the economy. So those three things taken together would dictate that the Federal Reserve should be cutting rates to well below zero, probably something like -4 or -5 percent, which obviously they can't do.
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http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features-and-interviews/1/1984-brian-nick-time-to-short-gold.html
 
Gold bulls had better man up and do the buying when everyone else is bearish. I have a very difficult time believing the gold propagandists when I look at the chart of GLD over the past 3 months. GLD sitting on support right now.

It appears the dollar is now once again the safety trade.
 
Yeah it wouldn't be pretty, but gold was good to me, very good to me. Most will be taxed at LT cap gains in 2010 tax season. I think we're going down the deflation route here also as evidenced by the dollar bull. It's just kind of funny how fast the gold bull burned out like kindling.
 
Bullitt said:
HUI made a major breakdown this week but gold is pulling closer to that weekly uptrend line. Meanwhile, the gold bugs are still trying to brainwash the masses into thinking we're one step away from hyperinflation.
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Bullitt,

We are probably significantly closer to deflation than inflation...

Imagine where we would be had the FED not stepped in with their black helicopters. We had deflation anyway. Imangine where we would be.

Deflation ain't good. Gold doesn't help in deflation.
 
HUI made a major breakdown this week but gold is pulling closer to that weekly uptrend line. Meanwhile, the gold bugs are still trying to brainwash the masses into thinking we're one step away from hyperinflation.
 
Gold is sitting in the 'buy zone' but the internals don't look right now. I'll leave the buying to the gold bugs out there. The gold bull/inflation trade needs time to cool off- could be weeks, maybe months.
 
Let's not forget that when gold does break the 50 DMA, chartists and other trend followers who bought when India made their announcement will bail out, driving it down further. Retail investors will once again be brainwashed into thinking the dollar is going to the moon and deflation is the new hot trade. I still expect additional nations to diversify a few % of their reserves into gold by late 2009/early 2010.

Good chart Tom. I highly doubt too many retail investors will buy until gold appears 'safe' again though.

It seems like yesterday that the retail specs were dollar bears- now they're showing net long!
 
alevin said:
I've been to Jekyll Island-a week of special training back in 2000. It's an incredibly beautiful peaceful place, no cars allowed except on a few oyster-shell paths/roads-20mph. I said to myself I'd like to go back someday for a vacation but haven't yet.

But yes, its where the Roosevelts and Vanderbilts and all the Railroad Age tycoons and families used to spend their vacations together in one humongous 3-story Island hotel-style residence, kind of a NewYork millionaire-family co-op deal back in the 1880s or so. Other guests by invite only back then. I'm sure they came up with many many lucrative shady deals among themselves over cigars while their families played.
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IMO, no different today.
 
nnuut said:
Tybee Island!!:D I think? NO it's JEKYLL Island!!
That's it,
The Creature from Jekyll Island
How It REALLY Happened​

index_1.gif

<B>

by G. Edward Griffin
​
</B>
Excerpts from Chapter One specifically addressing
the creation of the Federal Reserve System.​
http://www.pushhamburger.com/jeckel.htm
​
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I've been to Jekyll Island-a week of special training back in 2000. It's an incredibly beautiful peaceful place, no cars allowed except on a few oyster-shell paths/roads-20mph. I said to myself I'd like to go back someday for a vacation but haven't yet.

But yes, its where the Roosevelts and Vanderbilts and all the Railroad Age tycoons and families used to spend their vacations together in one humongous 3-story Island hotel-style residence, kind of a NewYork millionaire-family co-op deal back in the 1880s or so. Other guests by invite only back then. I'm sure they came up with many many lucrative shady deals among themselves over cigars while their families played.
 
I'm still betting that we have a little time. It's such a good time of year to be in the market - especially with the indices up 25% to 30% and fund managers under invested trying to pad their portolios with winning stocks for their annual reports. After December though...
 
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