goforit's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Go for it!

 

[goforit]

thank you so if i guess this right i am suppose to talk about my account or what i think about "stuff" and basically why i do whati do. first let me say i dont know much and i think i know alot. i have a"Trading Places" type approach. what does the common man do or need. i look at the seasonality chart and compare to TSP history of the funds. then i put my best(worst) gut feeling to play. like i said before i am stepping back because everyone is saying a pullback is likely and i want to be out when it happens which my gut says soon. might not be the huge ones like last year but it will be enough to buy low and reap a steady incline later.

 

[nnuut]

You're right the market is crazy and we need to be careful. I still think the Bulls are in charge but that can change quickly, be nimble.

 

[goforit]

nimble is a good expression of how people should approach this months/year market. i believe that we just got out of a year that was unstable and unpredictable so we seen alot of ups and downs. i also think that this year will be what may be refered to as anormal year. normal before the whole recession scare of 07,08,09,10. we will only see steady profits by year end. with that said i take into account for Jan of any year that the common man is in debt from black friday till after Christmas so we will have to rely on the smart money to point us in the direction of what the market may do. the dumb money may not have any money left and may even cash in to pay debt off.

these are again just my opinion nothing really factual to back it up except history.

 

[goforit]

ok so it looks like a minor drop off the last two days. is this the "pullback" starting and if so how far will it go. looking to jump in after this probably will go in next week about tues/weds. currently 80g20f looking 100C next week. C seems to show the strongest chance of better increases in the short term. spring is around the corner and the merchants will need to think off hiring for summer(in minnesota its going to hit 40below windchill tonght must think warm thoughts).

 

[goforit]

a new week and it looks as though it wants to start off go up. still waiting for a pullback. want to jump into C maybe S this week but... alittle timid on the constant rise and that 1300 number for the C. i dont think the economy is strong enough to climb that high and maintain it. still thiking buy low sell high right now. but the rest of the month looks good on the seasonality chart. just cant seem to pull the trigger.

 

[goforit]

well we will see what the President has to say tonight and watch tomorrow charts of the C/S/I/F for the results. to me this will be a good indiction of wether or not people are listening to the news stations to make their decisions of where to invest. i think that if it goes up the President did well to convince the common man that the economy is going foward. if it goes down i think that the real investors are saying they know better and are preparing for a pullback so they can buy low to pull a profit until the normal March decline. i still cant pull the trigger to move to C/S waiting for a decent dip. staying where i am. not making much on the precentage of gains but gaining i am.

 

[FAB1]

Im watching the transports. Futures today in the Nasdaq arent looking too cheery.

Holding G and DCAing into the I fund for now (like I can do anything else thanks to draconian TSP rules)

 

[goforit]

question for anyone. i have noticed that alot of the usual suspects on these threads have what appears to be info of what today has done and/or is doing before the market opens. how or where do one get this info. i may not be seeing or reading them right but it sure seems that they are looking at todays end results before they get here.

 

[Bquat]

question for anyone. i have noticed that alot of the usual suspects on these threads have what appears to be info of what today has done and/or is doing before the market opens. how or where do one get this info. i may not be seeing or reading them right but it sure seems that they are looking at todays end results before they get here.

I go here early morning to see what the market is doing. There is a link called "more" under Market Update and you could see the S&P and Nasdaq Futures premarket and see which direction the a going by seeing a post each 1/2 hour before 9 AM EST. S&P Futures -4.40, -4.80, -3.80, so a jump down in the markets but trending back up.

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/market-summary

 

[goforit]

thanks. i did check it out it has up to date info. right now it shows the DOW down and the S&P/NASDAQ unchanged. no clue where it will go but i am waiting to see how people react to the Presidents "lets do it for the gipper" speech. i think the big companies have lots of cash and are sitting on so there for are not hiring so there for we will bejust hanging around.

 

[KevinD]

Futures link I use...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

 

[goforit]

thanks i just checked it out and i think this is what i am looking for.

 

[goforit]

ok i just can't sit on the sidelines anymore jumping in 100% S. i will give it time to develope but i just think that the market will slide backwards maybe for consildation or what ever reason and maybe it will be the month of feb. just trying to chunk a few extra dollars and use my last IFT for the month. besides .18% in the green so far this year just doesnt kick it. need to try and get into the top 100 any way.

 

[goforit]

alright so i pulled the trigger on thursday (100% S) before the morning deadline and of course friday it tanked. today it seems like it wants to give some back. the question how long can it keep giving back. Feb seasonality is not very good.

 

[goforit]

going to stay S and see what happens. reading from every one else it seems that maybe the C and I are getting popular. today it looks like we are going to get back friday. note to self: two days of gains to erase one day of loss. it seems in the past it would take longer

 

[goforit]

held in S for a couple of days. got back the lost and even moved up from the bottom of the tracker. whoopii i still suck at this. got to quit thinking i am smart. but... decided that sesonality for Feb is not good enough to stay in S 100% and way to many people are saying that it may step back before continuing the move up. so... i decided to pull out with a little gain and go 70G15C15I just felt like i needed stay in a little just in case.

 

[goforit]

well for the week ok for the month better but for the just tiny tiny gains. the good thing is they are gains. going to hold where i am and hope that this FEB doesnt wok out like the historical FEB plays out. if it plas out then i am going to loose what little i gained until maybe the last week going into Mar. of course the historical seasonality shows Mar, Apr, May as gainers. we will see. "when is this so called PULLBACK" all the market terrorist are calling for going to happen. (day seven of not smoking after 35 years of smoking!!! this to buster we will win this battle)

 

[goforit]

nothing special for this week it looks as though the csi funds want to stay climbing. been thinking about adding more in C/I this week but only have one IFT left. if i do it i should do it all in one or none at all. still think there will be a pullback before it goes higher then expected.

 

[goforit]

just a note. i was watching "Nightly Business News" on PBS last night and something caught my ear. i have heard it before in the news but this time it was explained on a world stage. the price of our food is growing fast. there has been unrest in the world food markets for a few months now and some country's economys are very unstable. i did know that Egypt's unrest was not just about getting rid of a president it is also about the low wages and high food prices. the thing that bothers me is that this could have more of a world impact on the economy then alot of people here in the US know. also on top of this we are paying farmers not to grow, produce and harvest. farmers oblige because they get more money from that then they would if the sold their products. this is wrong. if the food prices are going up in our grocery stores then why are the farmers getting the same prices for a bushel they got 10/20 years ago? i am convinced that when this higher food prices really start to effect the common family it will have a huge impact on our econmy here similar to the gas prices when they hit the $4 a gallon mark.

what do our experience investors on this board think? am i way off in left field on this or am not seeing this delema correctly?