GDPNow GDP Estimates

[tsptalk]

Weird -- they jump it up by 1.0% on Monday, then drop it back down two days later...

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On February 5, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent, down from 3.9 percent on February 3.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declines

On February 14, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent, down from 2.9 percent on February 7.

 

[tsptalk]

Wonder why yields have been falling?

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On February 28, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent, down from 2.3 percent on
February 19. View GDPNow for more details.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Wonder why yields have been falling?

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On February 28, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent, down from 2.3 percent on
February 19. View GDPNow for more details.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

Yeah, add hundreds of thousands of instant job losses with upcoming RIF, and likely hundreds of thousands of home sales as a result....and there you go....Instant Recession.

 

[rangerray]

I lived through one RIF in my career under Clinton. I was promoted early to my “target” position which was fine with me. During the reorganization, the Vicksburg District of the US Army Corps of Engineers ended up not losing a single person.

Some offices were closed, but employees were shifted around such that no one lost their jobs. Voluntary retirements were plentiful with the added bonuses in some cases.


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[nasa1974]

Talked with a friend of mine at NASA here in Cleveland. He said everyone is on edge not knowing what is going to happen.

 

[tsptalk]

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On March 3, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent, down from -1.5 percent on February 28. View GDPNow for more details.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[James48843]

I lived through one RIF in my career under Clinton. I was promoted early to my “target” position which was fine with me. During the reorganization, the Vicksburg District of the US Army Corps of Engineers ended up not losing a single person.

Some offices were closed, but employees were shifted around such that no one lost their jobs. Voluntary retirements were plentiful with the added bonuses in some cases.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And that set of RIF’scwere carried out over a couple of years- and included a lot of planning.,

This one is the exact opposite- zero planning- no real idea what they are doing, a failure to use the tools required by law, and just “take my word for it” resignation demands offering illegal paid leave for months. It’s not the Agency doing it, it’s OPM, the Doge guys, and what appears to be folks who don’t know how it’s suppose to work. Leaving employees holding the bag, and not giving proper RIF credit and options.

Nope.,


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[rangerray]

And that set of RIF’scwere carried out over a couple of years- and included a lot of planning.,

This one is the exact opposite- zero planning- no real idea what they are doing, a failure to use the tools required by law, and just “take my word for it” resignation demands offering illegal paid leave for months.

Nope.,


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

I will not denigrate every agency with my comments, but I will say that the US Army Corps of Engineers, once they’ve received the directive from District Headquarters, can handle a RIF and still accomplish it’s mission.

This country CAN survive radical presidents and agencies do that by being mission oriented, not driven by political leanings that often prove wrong.


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[tsptalk]

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On March 6, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent, up from -2.8 percent on March 3.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

I must have missed the March 7 increase?


First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On March 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.1 percent, down from -1.6 percent on March 7.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On March 18, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8 percent, up from -2.1 percent on March 17.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On March 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.1 percent, down from -1.6 percent on March 7.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Follow the bouncing GDP estimates....


First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On March 28, the standard GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent. The alternative model growth estimate is -0.5 percent.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On April 1, the standard GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent. The alternative model growth estimate is -1.4 percent.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting timing for an increase in GDP estimates (from -3.7%). For future reference, stocks were down about 5% today on the tariiff announcement.


First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On April 3, the standard GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent. The alternative model growth estimate is -0.8 percent.

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Interesting that the latest GDP projection went up (ie not as negative) to -2.8% (was -3.7 percent yesterday).
My "seat of pants" guess is the truth will end up being closer to the -3.7%.. Hopefully not worse than that.