GDPNow GDP Estimates

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On October 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent, up from 5.1 percent on October 10.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Initial Estimate of Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Is 2.3 Percent

On October 27th, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On November 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent, down from 2.3 percent on October 27.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On November 7, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent, up from 1.2 percent on November 1.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On November 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent, down from 2.2 percent on November 15.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On November 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent, down from 2.2 percent on November 15.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On November 30, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent, down from 2.1 percent on November 22.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On December 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent, down from 1.8 percent on November 30.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On December 14, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.6 percent, up from 1.2 percent on December 7.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreases

On December 22, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent, down from 2.7 percent on December 19.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreases

On January 2, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent, down from 2.3 percent on December 22.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta[

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On January 3, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent, up from 2.0 percent on January 2.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreases

On January 9, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent, down from 2.5 percent on January 3.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On January 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent, up from 2.2 on January 10. View GDPNow for more details.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

[tsptalk]

The inverted yield curve continues to shoot blanks. Where's that confounded recession?! Not here.


Initial Estimate of First-Quarter GDP Growth Is 3.0 Percent

On January 26, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

[Bullitt]

It makes me wonder why the fed is worried and talking rate cuts despite the juiced GDP reading. I do think they are pretty smart people, smarter than all the naysayers with a twitter account, but what are they seeing if the numbers and stats all seem so positive? Inflation is "going down", unemployment is still looking good, and GDP is in blast off mode, yet this fed meeting next week could be providing a timeline for cuts as early as March-June.

 

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Election year?

 

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First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On February 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent, up from 3.0 percent on January 26.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

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First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On February 7, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent, down from 4.2 percent on February 1.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

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First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On February 15, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent, down from 3.4 percent on February 8.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta