GDPNow GDP Estimates

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Initial Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP Growth Is 1.7 Percent

On April 28, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.7 percent.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On April 26, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 is 1.1 percent, down from 2.5 percent on April 18.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the first quarter. The first GDPNow

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

That looks like a good "Goldilocks" number, not enough to bring Recession Fears, but enough to make the Fed go slow or even pause.

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On May 4, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.7 percent, up from 1.8 percent on May 1.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On May 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.9 percent, up from 2.6 percent on May 16.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On May 26, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent, down from 2.9 percent on May 17.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On June 7, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent, up from 2.0 percent on June 1.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On June 15, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent, down from 2.2 percent on June 8.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreases

On June 27, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent, down from 1.9 percent on June 20.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On June 30, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent, up from 1.8 percent on June 27.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreases

On July 3, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent, down from 2.2 percent on June 30.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On July 6, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent, up from 1.9 percent on July 3. View GDPNow for more details.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On July 10, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent, up from 2.1 percent on July 6.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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The soft landing scenario seems to be real. So why the inverted 2/10 yield curve for over a year?

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Initial Estimate of Third-Quarter GDP Growth Is 3.5 Percent

On July 28, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 3.5 percent.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On August 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 3.9 percent, up from 3.5 percent on July 28.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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5% ?? The recession is dying before it gets here...

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On August 15, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.0 percent, up from 4.1 percent on August 8.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Well, this is getting interesting...

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On August 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.8 percent, up from 5.0 percent on August 15.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On August 24, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.9 percent, up from 5.8 percent on August 16.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On August 31, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent, down from 5.9 percent on August 24.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On September 14, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent, down from 5.6 percent on September 8.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

 

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Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases

On October 10, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.1 percent, up from 4.9 percent on October 5.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx