G Fund Return Process

[mlk_man]

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You all are putting way too much into this. Remember, it's a government retirement plan. That being said, I'm sure they only work once a week...........:^

 

[Guest]

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ckb21401 wrote:

nnuut wrote:

Why?:%

Assume I is the daily interest rate and N is the number of days needed to go from $10.00 to $10.01.

Then we need to solve for N in

10*(1+I)^N = 10.01.

We get N = ln(10.01/10)/ln(1+I)

But ln(1+I) is about equal to I (using Taylor Series approx since I is very small), so we can simplify to

N = ln(10.01/10)/I

If I doubles, N will go down by a factor of 2.

Craig

Craig, That was anexcellent explanation!

 

[pyriel]

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The Technician wrote:

I think tomorrow the 13th will be the next day....the fund will jump to 10.86.....and then 6 days later it will jump again to 10.87......

Lets wait and see if I got the days correct.....maybe we can predict when the pennies come our way.....:^

The Technician:dude:

Tech, The G fund did not jump. Back to the drawing board?

 

[Dave M]

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Figure once a week. That is a 5.2% interest rate since there are 52 weeks in the year and the share price isnear 10.00. (Each penny is roughly one part per thousand and52parts per thousand is 5.2 parts per hundred.)

If 4.5%it will be 7times 5.2/4.5 orseven days plus (15% of a week) which is very close to one-seventhet voila! it is 7+1 = 8 days. So you have 5.2% is every 7 days, 4.5% is every 8 days, etc. Count the days and you have the interest rate.

Since every penny is one part per thousand, count the thousands you have in the fund and that is the number of dollars you get with every penny. Have a hundred grand? You get a hundred bucks a week. That's 200 per pay period; how does that compare with your contribution listed on your pay stub? ? About the same? Less? More?

For me, when those two numbersbecameequal, it was the signalto increase my contribution.

Dave

 

[nnuut]

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All this math is nice, but I challenge someone to predict it period by period. It's going to vary and that can't be predicted until we know what the variable is that is making it inconsistent. So there!oI don't think it is as simple as the intrest rates.:shock:

 

[ckb21401]

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nnuut wrote:

All this math is nice, but I challenge someone to predict it period by period. It's going to vary and that can't be predicted until we know what the variable is that is making it inconsistent. So there!o I don't think it is as simple as the intrest rates.:shock:

I think if we know the interest rate far enough back we can do a very good job of predicting the penny day. We need more data to determine if they are rounding up at a half cent or waiting until the amount crosses the whole penny threshold. Does anyone know when the rate went to the 4.5% it is at now?

 

[nnuut]

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I think if we know the interest rate far enough back we can do a very good job of predicting the penny day. We need more data to determine if they are rounding up at a half cent or waiting until the amount crosses the whole penny threshold. Does anyone know when the rate went to the 4.5% it is at now?

That would be really cool, if it works!!:^Go for it, the info is on the TSP site under Historys. Your the MAN. oDive, Dive, Dive!!!

 

[The_Technician]

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I charted the fund for the last 200 days and it doesn't follow a linear regression....it fluctuates in a semi-pattern though....I agree with Nutt.....it doesn't seem to depend solely on interest rates.....there are holidays, and whatever influencing the rate increase....but right now I think we are in for a 7 day period before the next change which would make it the 31st or 1st of June......

:dude:

 

[mlk_man]

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The Technician wrote:

I charted the fund for the last 200 days and it doesn't follow a linear regression....it fluctuates in a semi-pattern though....I agree with Nutt.....it doesn't seem to depend solely on interest rates.....there are holidays, and whatever influencing the rate increase....but right now I think we are in for a 7 day period before the next change which would make it the 31st or 1st of June......

:dude:

You told me a 2-day period wasn't good enough. Now you say it's okay as long as you come up with it? LOL

BTW, 7 days would make itthe 2nd.................Monday is holiday remember. Or are including weekends and holidays? If so, that would be Monday..............

I do however agree that we will get the penny on the 31st or 1st with the 1st being most likely.

 

[The_Technician]

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Contacted the TSP people and they said that the G fund is set by the US Securities at the beginning of each month...May is 4.5%...so it varies depending on the return on short term securities....

So it depends on the rate for the month.....I suspect if its low like Greg said I believe it was him, it will take longer....and if high, it has a shorter period....

So how do we approach it from here.....

1) get the rate at the first of the month

2) apply interest rate to a formula.....to calculate the date.....

3) rate increase should be good till the next month......that gives us 3-5 days of increases possibly during the month....

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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Appreciate you calling the TSP folks and sharing with the board.



Do I have to bring out mr kitty again?

The one with the 30/30 and itchy trigger paw?

 

[The_Technician]

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DMA, its very apparent you got it 180 degrees out.....as you did yesterday....

I'll bring my eagle to meet your rat chaser.....

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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Do I have to release, LizardMonkey on ya???

 

[Guest]

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The Technician wrote:

DMA, its very apparent you got it 180 degrees out.....as you did yesterday....

I'll bring my eagle to meet your rat chaser.....

:dude:

And just what is that suppose to mean???

Just kidding.

Can we all please calm down???


Come on. Lets make some money or keep some money here.

We have some good minds lets use them to rule the world.

 

[The_Technician]

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Do you have to compromise your future profits/earnings......



:dude:

 

[nnuut]

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Children, Children please get along! :shock:Gonna get Banned Again, we would miss you.:x

 

[Guest]

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If I have give you two a group hug that to me would be a compromise but one I am willing to make it.

 

[Guest]

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I think we should all take a deep breathe.

Walk about for 30 minutes.

Then come back as friends.

 

[Guest]

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Oh yeah you going to do anything prior to the deadline?

In like 60 seconds.:shock::shock:

 

[Guest]

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By the way Tech has been drinking again and was thinking outloud.

**** Have mercy on his wand **** His crystal ball is in the shop.