08/30/13
Stocks saw some nice gains in morning trading but again there was some selling into the close as the geopolitical uncertainty gives reason to take profits instead of holding overnight. The Dow ended the day with a 16-point gain, while small caps had a big day, and a rally in the dollar kept the I-fund down.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 162"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.19%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 (SPY) is holding above that long-term rising support line but it's now 3 closes below the 50-day EMA and there's another possible bear flag forming. Today (the Friday before Labor Day weekend) has a positive bias being up 75% of the time since the last 60+ years, so it will be interesting to see if investors are willing to hold into this weekend with Syria on the table.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps had a big day as the Russell 2000 is now testing its overhead open gap, after bouncing off of the double bottom support line earlier this week. There is descending resistance to deal with so that will be a concern going into next week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar gapped up and rallied nicely on Thursday, breaking above the descending resistance line and that gave the I-fund some trouble. It closed just below the 50-day EMA, and the 200-day EMA is not far above that, so we have a possible upside breakout here, but oh those pre-holiday reversals can get us leaning the wrong way. We'll have to wait until next week to see if the larger trend (down) resumes after the holiday. That big gap will want to get filled.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Here's another look at the Performance Seasonality surrounding Labor Day weekend. Today (Friday -1) is the best day by far, but things are a bit rough next week historically.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com , analysis by TSP Talk
It's always something, but Syria will have an impact on investors today, and until something is done. Once we get direction from Washington, the uncertainty will be lifted and stocks will probably be less affected. Whether that means they will move up or don't I don't know, but as I mentioned yesterday it may depend on how high the price of oil goes, and the direction of bond yields. Once we're in September, the economic data and "taper or no taper" will be back in the headlines.
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Thanks for reading! Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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