FOMC Announcement Met With Selling Pressure

After yesterday's selling spree, trader's began the day driving prices right back up in spite of some disappointing retail sales numbers released prior to the open.

Retail sales for November came in a 0.2%, which was below estimates calling for 0.6%. Minus autos that number remained at 0.2%, but that was still below expectations of 0.5%.

But while the market came out of the opening bell strong it didn't last much more than the first half hour of trading, which is where the market hit its high of the day. It then dropped back and traded around the neutral line for several hours until the FOMC announcement was released.

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Today's FOMC policy statement offered little in the way of revelations, but the market was looking for talk of QE3 and that didn't happen. It was downhill from there as the broader market sold off, ending the day with significant losses.

After hours there was some news regarding real estate that really makes one wonder why we should pay any attention at all to anything we're told about the health of our economy. The National Association of Realtors has announced that they've significantly overcounted the number of home sales since 2007.

Here's tonight's charts:

NAMO-NYMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO moved lower today and remain in sell conditions.

NAHL-NYHL.jpg

NAHL actually moved higher, while NYHL tracked sideways. Both remain on sells, but remain near their respective 6 day EMAs.

TRIN-TRINQ.jpg

TRIN and TRINQ also remain on sells, but are very neutral overall.

BPCOMPQ.png

BPCOMPQ tracked a bit lower today, but is hardly falling off a cliff. It remains in a buy condition. That could be telling.

So the signals are mixed, but the system officially remains in a sell condition.

This market is not doing a whole lot of anything other then keeping both bulls and bears guessing where prices will go next. I still believe those three unconfirmed buy signals are early warnings of a breakout to the upside, but that's not a slam dunk.

Of interest is the FOMC policy statement today. The market sold off hard after it was released. The market often reverses its initial reaction shortly after this particular event. And given OPEX week's generally supportive nature, I have to like the odds of a move higher here. Perhaps even a breakout to the upside over the coming days.

I could not foresee what the FOMC might announce today, nor how the market would react to it, but I did execute my second IFT today and now have a 100% S fund position. Am I comfortable? No. But I do like the fact that the market sold off today as it fits in with my short term bullish outlook. However, other traders that I watch are not so bullish. Then again, that's what makes a market.
 
You are a gambler Coolhand, 100% S Fund? Good luck to you. I may join you as early as tomorrow.. Thanks for all your informative posts.
 
Ok, I'm a newbie at investing and trading, but I'm beginning to think it's all a crap shoot! It is an education, and knowledge is power, so I'll keep plugging away hoping for the best. Mahalo, coolhand!
My Christmas wish is for prosperity and good timing with investing, for us all !

Mele Kalikimaka !
 
It's the euro that's causing the markets to go up or down. The more the euro slides down which pushes up the dollar which when lower over inflates the true price of stocks, the higher the dollar will go and lower the stocks wil go. Forget charts and seasonality right now and follow the euro. When the euro reaches $122.6 then I expect the ECB will finally fire up the printing presses and that's when gold bottoms out too. Of course they'll say that the Italian or Spainish bond yields are causing the fear but it's the euro that controls the markets right now.

Oh, after that happens and you think the coast is clear, that's when the bond vigilantes start their attack on the dollar. That initially might look like a good think for stocks since as I mentioned a lower dollar inflates stocks higher but that too will end badly.

One more fly in the ointment, what happens if the Mayans are right about a 2012? Not saying the world is going to end but a huge natural disaster like a mega quake or super volcano, another much worse tsunami, etc... I'd hate to be long or any where near the path the day that were to occur.

By thew way, the G fund is beating the stock market this year. You got to love that. :)

Merry Christmas!
 
konakathy;bt4531 said:
Ok, I'm a newbie at investing and trading, but I'm beginning to think it's all a crap shoot! It is an education, and knowledge is power, so I'll keep plugging away hoping for the best. Mahalo, coolhand!
My Christmas wish is for prosperity and good timing with investing, for us all !

Mele Kalikimaka !

Aloha, konakathy.
The market hasn't always been this wild. It's moving very quickly these days.

CH, you are mighty bold to take a 100% position, but faint hearts never won ... much of anything.

After hours, "The National Association of Realtors has announced that they've significantly overcounted the number of home sales since 2007." I would guess that someone has been cooking the books since 2007, then someone new and honest came into power and corrected the record. I'm sure glad that no one in our government cooks any books, despite keen personal interest in doing so.
 
With the S&P500 decisive sell off today, and ended below the 50-DMA, I figure that the tune has changed from bull to bear, unless some internal data (which the typical investors don't normally see) is telling a different story.
 
konakathy;bt4531 said:
Ok, I'm a newbie at investing and trading, but I'm beginning to think it's all a crap shoot! It is an education, and knowledge is power, so I'll keep plugging away hoping for the best. Mahalo, coolhand!
My Christmas wish is for prosperity and good timing with investing, for us all !

Mele Kalikimaka !

Konakathy, it is not a crap shoot, it's a casino where the dealers always win. LOL. Same thing, huh?

Say, how far are you from the Hawaiian Beach Park?
 
dpmp;bt4538 said:
Konakathy, it is not a crap shoot, it's a casino where the dealers always win. LOL. Same thing, huh?

Say, how far are you from the Hawaiian Beach Park?

No kidding, the dealers always win. I found that out this past October in Vegas. :notrust:

I live on the westside of the Big Island and Hawaiian Beaches is on the eastside. It's about 130 miles ( 3hr) depending on which
road you take.
 
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