Foghorn's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Foghorn,

You have more than proven you have a winning style when you're actively in the game. Unless you have a stroke or some major personality change - the past few few weeks will in no way change the overall picture. If anyone has proven their TSP advantage it's you. Welcome back; GL and happy gains!

 

[Foghorn]

Thanks Steadygain.

 

[Foghorn]

I expect today, Thursday -1/10, to be an up day, and possibly tommorrow too. However, the market still has too much downside pressure.

One of the analysts that I follow believes if the market breaks to the downside that we may reach the August 07 lows, and maybe head to the March 07 low.

So, I'm taking this as the relief rally and moving to the F fund with some in the G fund.

If the market breaks to the upside then I'll jump back in since this will be my safe move for Jan. I haven't made any other moves during the first ten days of this month.

Let's see how this works out.

Good luck to all.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

I moved 100% to the I fund today.

Chairman Bernanke's testimony did not inlcude any new bad news. We heard it all before.

He did say that he sees the economy slowing down in 2008 but not a recession. As long as the US avoids going into a recession, I believe that the I fund will get a short term bounce.

Once his statements get interpreted without emotion (the expected emergency rate cut), I believe the market will get its short term bounce.

I will keep a my computer close by to bail out if the market continues to go south.

Good luck.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

This was one of those days that you just have to say, "Ouch."

I wasn't expecting a drop such as we got. I was expecting to see some choppiness but not a straight, steep, downward drop.

Only the end of the trading day stopped the bleeding.

The markets gave back everything they gave us yesterday.

Oh well, There's always tomorrow (next week in this case).

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

I'm back in the game. I took a beating in 2008 and 2009. So, I spent the last two years studying how the market works. I intend to keep up with the ups and downs. Here's a thumbs up to this year.
Foghorn

 

[nasa1974]

Welcome back.

 

[Foghorn]

Thanks nasa, let's see how it goes this year.

 

[nnuut]

Welcome back and Best of LUCK!!
Norman

 

[merlin]

Welcome back Foghorn.

 

[Foghorn]

I'm going to start using my account talk to track my moves to help me figure out what I'm doing right and wrong.

S Fund: I made a move out of the S Fund today to the G fund.

I'm using $EMW in Stockcharts.com to track the S Fund. The fund is in an up channel and I expect it to continue moving upward.

However, the Slow Stochastic has dropped below 80 (76) at yesterday's close and I expect to see the trend head toward the 18 day moving average for a few days before it returns to the upside.

The price trend is at 596 and the 18 MA is at 584. Let's see what happens in the next few days.

This is my second interfund transfer for Oct 2010, so I'm effectively out of the market until Nov 2010.

 

[Foghorn]

When I made the move in Oct the fund did drop and almost touched the 18 day moving average. However, the drop occurred the day I entered the move and I caught the downward trend and then the TSP made my move that night. So, the daily moves happen too fast to try and time them. So, I think I have a better way - using the weekly snapshop. I will now start looking at the daily chart and then move back to look at it from the weekly perspective. Let's see how this works out.

Foghorn

I'm going to start using my account talk to track my moves to help me figure out what I'm doing right and wrong.

S Fund: I made a move out of the S Fund today to the G fund.

I'm using $EMW in Stockcharts.com to track the S Fund. The fund is in an up channel and I expect it to continue moving upward.

However, the Slow Stochastic has dropped below 80 (76) at yesterday's close and I expect to see the trend head toward the 18 day moving average for a few days before it returns to the upside.

The price trend is at 596 and the 18 MA is at 584. Let's see what happens in the next few days.

This is my second interfund transfer for Oct 2010, so I'm effectively out of the market until Nov 2010.

 

[JTH]

I think I have a better way - using the weekly snapshop. I will now start looking at the daily chart and then move back to look at it from the weekly perspective. Let's see how this works out.

Foghorn

I myself sometimes hyperfocus on the the daily timeframes too much, and it's amazing how your perspective changes when you stepback to the weekly timeframe.

 

[Foghorn]

This year, my resolution is to stay informed of the market actions, to keep on eye on it, and to not simply stand by when steep drops happen.

There I wrote it so now I have to follow it.

Foghorn.

 

[Foghorn]

Today's move up was too fast and too much. I like the movement up, but the S Fund hit the upper bollinger band.

So I moved out by noon.

The price backed off in the afternoon and closed just below the top band.

If the price had closed above the band then I would have expected it to drop toward the 18 day moving average. But, since it closed below the top band then tomorrow is likely to go up in the morning. It may turn around in the afternoon and close lower.

Let's see what happens.

Today's move leaves me with one full move for the month.

Foghorn.

 

[Foghorn]

I'm currently in the G Fund and I'm looking for an entry point.

The Stochastic (Sto) for the SPX is the strongest of the three funds, the EFA (what I watch to track the I Fund) has the worst stochastic. The Sto for the EMW (S Fund) is failing.

Therefore, I'm going to watch today's market to see if the Sto's improve before noon. If they do I may make the jump in, if they don't I'll sit out for another day.

Foghorn

 

[fedgolfer]

yeah, i was just thinking the same thing looking at the intraday 30 min/60 min sticks and even the dailys. C fund looking like the best for the near future. BGU and QLD lookin' better than TNA.

 

[Foghorn]

This looks like the re-entry point; I will jump in the market today. I expect to see a bump up from the Jobs Data tomorrow - Friday and I want to catch it.

I also expect to see today's downward drop stablize and turnaround slightly.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

The last two days have been a heck-of-a roller coaster ride-straight down. It's going to be hard to comb my hair back down.

I kept 50% in the S Fund and I still took a big hit. I expected some downside movement but I didn't expect that much. I did not want to be completely out of the market

I guess that Tom's information was correct saying the indicators were showing it was time for a pull back.

The indicators aren't bullish, yet, so I'm expecting to see some movement to the upside again. However, the market may trend sideways for a few days.

Either way, I'm positioned to catch some upside with 50%. If it goes sideways long enough I'll jump back in at the beginning of Feb.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

I'm splitting my allocation for the rest of February. The C and S are reaching the top bollinger band and volitility is showing it wants to climb. I have one move left but I don't want to exit the market completely for the rest of the month.

So, I'm spliiting the chance of rising volitility and going to C and I for now.

I'm anxious to see how this option works out.