Foghorn's Account Talk

[Foghorn]

Originally Posted by weatherweenie Briefing.com​

4:20 pm : Separately, Morgan Stanley issued a "triple sell" rating on European equities for the first time since the dotcom bust due to rising rates among other things. The investment bank said it expects a 14% correction in European equities over the next six months.​

I moved to the C Fund (100%), I believe that the overseas markets are going to be lackluster after this rating.

I also believe that only the medium and large companies can weather this storm.

Thus I moved to the C fund for a while.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

I'm moving to the safety of the G fund for a while until I'm sure that the overall trend isn't continuing downward.

We may see a bounce today but I'm not convinced that will continue through Friday.

Friday will be a telling day whether I come back to stocks next week.

Foghorn

PS: I need the rest. I've been trying to keep the USM's up by the number of times that I log in and watch what's happening. I also have been trying to read everything bit of information that comes out on different websites. ZZZZZZZZZZZZ

 

[Foghorn]

Here's an interesting article posted on CNN Money.

I'm reading information sources trying to guage which way Monday, 10/22/07, will go. Will it continue the downward slide or will investors see this as a buying opportunity.

Here the link to the article.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/21/markets/bc.apfn.wall.main.ap/index.htm
Here's the headline:

Bulls still on parade despite big plunge

Earnings warnings, a weak housing market and $90 oil should have investors running for the hills. But they're not.

 

[Foghorn]

I guessed that the OSMs would be in positive territory today, even if the USMs might be in negative country.

Well, it looks like I guessed wrong. The EFA is headed straight down with me as a passenger.

I'm moving to the sidelines for a little while, at least until the market direction is clearer.

Right now I'm behind the curve and if I try to guess I'm just going to be chasing. Every time that I have chased I have lost money. So, I'm not chasing, I'm going to sit and watch.

FH

 

[Foghorn]

I went 50/50 - G and F today.

There isn't anything that the FED can say, in the announcement about cutting the rate that can be interpreted as being good.

We already know, if they cut .25 it's pretty much already built in, if they cut .50 that may signal that things are worse than we think.

Either way the predictions are that the dollar will be pushed further down and oil will go up.

I'm betting that the market will spook and start going down. I'm also betting that things will settle down, in a few days, and we'll get back to our standard volitility to deal with.

FH

 

[Foghorn]

The market appears to be attempting to find a direction to move based on the Chairman Bernanke's statements.

I believe that some selling will occur when the statements are fully deciphered, in other words What did he say that will cause the market to go up? Nothing.

On the flip-side he said to expect slower econonic growth.

I'm moving to a semi-safety position, with some money in the F fund for a few days.

Foghorn

 

[Steadygain]

Smart man! I see why you're doing so well

 

[ekatteng]

Foghorn, I do not consider an accident that you are on the top of the autotracker... If I may ask you ? What system are you using ? you are very sharp and wise in your market calls... Are you fundamental or technical or both ?

Fundamentally speaking... What do you think ? the US interest rate is low... consumption and exports are high and profits are showing... which move the market up... beside the international market is kind away from the housing credit mess, the weak dollar is on I Fund favor... and Euro could low interest rate as well... which may also give the room to I Fund to rise up ?

What do you think ?

The market appears to be attempting to find a direction to move based on the Chairman Bernanke's statements.

I believe that some selling will occur when the statements are fully deciphered, in other words What did he say that will cause the market to go up? Nothing.

On the flip-side he said to expect slower econonic growth.

I'm moving to a semi-safety position, with some money in the F fund for a few days.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

Smart man! I see why you're doing so well

Steadygain, thanks for the compliment but it's all one big guess. Right now the market has too much wobble, thus too much risk for my taste so I'm moving some out.

Here's the problem; if I guess wrong and the market moves up, I look like a weak-kneed investor. If I guess right and the market continues to sell off then I appear prescient.

It's neither.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

Foghorn, I do not consider an accident that you are on the top of the autotracker... If I may ask you ? What system are you using ? you are very sharp and wise in your market calls... Are you fundamental or technical or both ?

Fundamentally speaking... What do you think ? the US interest rate is low... consumption and exports are high and profits are showing... which move the market up... beside the international market is kind away from the housing credit mess, the weak dollar is on I Fund favor... and Euro could low interest rate as well... which may also give the room to I Fund to rise up ?

What do you think ?

Ekatteng,

I don't have a system such as yours. All I have is a run of good luck, today; tomorrow who knows. My good luck run started in August of this year.

Actually, I get most of my information from this website. I read what Tom has to say, I read what the members have to say and what they're doing, I look at TSPGO's site, I look at TSP Companion's site, and I read the current market info (Yahoo, Bloomberg, etc), then I make a decision. I've been doing this for a little over one year now, so I'm still learning.

There is some very good analysis information that gets posted on this site. It's that good.

I like sticking to the I fund because it has the biggest gains. It also has some of the biggest losses, but in the long run the fund has done well. I just try and get out when I think it's going to go down and I try to jump back in when I see that it has started back up.

For instance; Japan took a hit today because one of it's financial institutions is caught up in the subprime mess.

I'm hoping that the holiday season will have an uplifting affect on the market.

So, good luck.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

Here's a perfect example of the quality information that gets posted on this website.

Fundsurfer posted some charts on his Account Talk. (I hope this link works.)

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=482&page=44

I look at those charts and all three funds (C,S,I) which I would like to be invested in have now turned downwards.

I interpret that as a signal to move out to a defensive/ safety position, at least until they turn upwards again.

Could they turn up quickly and I'm out, yes. But they could also keep going down. Then I look for something else to compare, such as what's in the news.

Good Luck,

FH

 

[Foghorn]

Moved 50% into the I fund and the other 50% I left in the safety of the G fund.

With the funds (C, S, & I) all headed straight down, should put them in a bounce position, at least short term.

So, I'm using the coffee creamer technique; I'm playing it half & half. Half out and half in.

FH

 

[presskh]

Moved 50% into the I fund and the other 50% I left in the safety of the G fund.

With the funds (C, S, & I) all headed straight down, should put them in a bounce position, at least short term.

So, I'm using the coffee creamer technique; I'm playing it half & half. Half out and half in.

FH

Agree with your "coffee creamer" technique for this market. I bought back in 15% C, 15% S, 20% I, and 50% G. At least we should get the G fund penny on half of our account next Tuesday.

 

[Foghorn]

I'm gambling that sentiments such as Mr. Shah's below will help to sustian the I Fund. I hoping that we're findind a bottom to this current drop in the C,S, & I funds.

So, I jumping back in to the I Fund, but keeping a hand on the door ready to move out if I have to.

Foghorn

From Reuters:

Dollar falls but market cautious on risk

Tue Nov 13, 2007 9:49am EST

"We are still confident of the general trend toward dollar weakness and view commodity currencies like the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar as attractive means of playing for a return of risk taking," said Divyang Shah, chief strategist with Commonwealth Bank in London.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1356328520071113?rpc=44

 

[Foghorn]

Here's an interesting read.

From Bloomberg.com:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azKsOc8Bu6Zo&refer=home

Asian Stocks Rise for First Time in Five Days; Toyota Advances

By Chen Shiyin and Emma O'Brien

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for the first time in five days, extending a global rally. Toyota Motor Corp. and Canon Inc. led exporters higher after the yen weakened against the dollar and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s profit beat estimates.


Wow, I would not have predicted the influence that Wal-Mart would have on a company in Hong Kong. Foghorn
_____________________________________________________________
Wal-Mart, Li & Fung
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, had its biggest advance since 2002 after reporting net income of 70 cents a share. Excluding a 1-cent tax benefit, the profit exceeded the 67-cent average estimate of analysts.
Li & Fung Ltd., a Hong Kong-based supplier to Wal-Mart, jumped 5.9 percent to HK$31.50. Westfield Group, which owns 59 shopping malls in the U.S., rose 1.9 percent to A$20.50.
_______________________________________________________________

 

[ekatteng]

Thank you Foghorn, Very encourage the fundamentals confirming the neural... or vs.

Here's an interesting read.

From Bloomberg.com:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azKsOc8Bu6Zo&refer=home

Asian Stocks Rise for First Time in Five Days; Toyota Advances

By Chen Shiyin and Emma O'Brien

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for the first time in five days, extending a global rally. Toyota Motor Corp. and Canon Inc. led exporters higher after the yen weakened against the dollar and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s profit beat estimates.


Wow, I would not have predicted the influence that Wal-Mart would have on a company in Hong Kong. Foghorn
_____________________________________________________________
Wal-Mart, Li & Fung
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, had its biggest advance since 2002 after reporting net income of 70 cents a share. Excluding a 1-cent tax benefit, the profit exceeded the 67-cent average estimate of analysts.
Li & Fung Ltd., a Hong Kong-based supplier to Wal-Mart, jumped 5.9 percent to HK$31.50. Westfield Group, which owns 59 shopping malls in the U.S., rose 1.9 percent to A$20.50.
_______________________________________________________________

 

[Foghorn]

I haven't had much luck trying to avoid the voilatility lately. My course of action has been to stay put but the up and down action is getting me seasick.

I'm moving to the F fund for one or two days, until I can identify a short term trend either up or down.

The move is a gamble that we haven't seen the bottom, yet.

I am also looking at the number of moves (IFTs) that I make and I'm trying to reduce my number of moves. I don't like it one bit. It has the feel of stress and anxiety trying to deal with a lack of control.

It's bad enough that we have to try an predict what's going to happen one or two days in the future. If it goes bad you can't get out, if starts to go well you can't get in.

Anyway, enough complaining; my experience in the past year has shown that the members of this site can overcome obstacles. Someone will figure out how to maximize earnings under the new restrictions.

I'm not acquiescing I'm just looking at the silver lining to this dark cloud.

Foghorn

 

[ekatteng]

Foghorn, You got a great system... and you are doing great... be persistance... hang in there...

I haven't had much luck trying to avoid the voilatility lately. My course of action has been to stay put but the up and down action is getting me seasick.

I'm moving to the F fund for one or two days, until I can identify a short term trend either up or down.

The move is a gamble that we haven't seen the bottom, yet.

I am also looking at the number of moves (IFTs) that I make and I'm trying to reduce my number of moves. I don't like it one bit. It has the feel of stress and anxiety trying to deal with a lack of control.

It's bad enough that we have to try an predict what's going to happen one or two days in the future. If it goes bad you can't get out, if starts to go well you can't get in.

Anyway, enough complaining; my experience in the past year has shown that the members of this site can overcome obstacles. Someone will figure out how to maximize earnings under the new restrictions.

I'm not acquiescing I'm just looking at the silver lining to this dark cloud.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

Here's an article from Bloomberg that's an interesting read.

Fed Skeptical of Recession, Disappoints Some Investors With Cut
By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres

``I can't remember a time when the Fed's credibility with the markets has been lower than it is today,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a former Fed researcher. ``Practically everyone has something to be disappointed with'' in the Fed's statement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHfsCkPAHrGs&refer=home

All I can say about yesterday; Ouch. But hey, we're resilient and we'll get it all back.

From Merriam Webster; Resilient a: capable of withstanding shock without permanent deformation or rupture b: tending to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change.

That's us.

Foghorn

 

[Foghorn]

I took two weeks off from most activities, but I'm back. I'm getting ready to change job locations in about one month, so I set my TSP on autopilot for a little while.

I took the TSP Board's advise and just held and all I did was lose money.

When I left for my break I figured that the dollar was going to continue with weakness and the I fund would be a good place to just park my money (yes, it's mine TSP Board).

It appears that it wasn't the case.

So, I'm going to catch up and read the posts and the charts and see where I go from here. I've got some ground to make up in the next two days.

Foghorn