FishinFool's Account Talk

[FishinFool]

Hello Ladies and Gentlemen:

Welcome to my humble account thread... which may from time to time, for nebulous psychological reasons, include borderline absurd or otherwise suspect content. That said, I am serious about making money with this here TSP business.... :F <----- secret "vampire fangs" emoticon

I finally joined this forum around the first of this year after a less than stellar 2012 despite my efforts in educating self about the market and (or is it "due to") reading and relying on a lot of trader prognostications ("nonsense"?) on Marketwatch and CNBC. I really thought the Euro crisis would create more market downturn than it did in 2012, after the first few panicky dives, and later in the year I stubbornly stayed in the C/S too long despite ongoing pullback...this spanked my PIP pretty badly. Emotional stubbornness. Never again I tell you.

To summarize this year's activity so far... after a (deliberate!) sucessful move into the G fund around Dec 12, thereby missing plenty of ensuing fiscal cliff downturn, I went back into largely the C/S funds (85% or so) in my Jan 2 IFT. This of course resulted in my missing the big Dow and S&P uptick we witnessed just after the last minute political deal... so be it but I was seriously concerned that Cantor & Co. would torpedo any deal and wreck the markets further. :suspicious: By the way, who is responsible for the 2 IFT limit per month and how can I arrange a barnacle-riddled keelhauling of said miserable person(s)

After about a 2.65% gain in Jan to date I decided this a.m. to jump back 80% into G fund (strategy gleaned via osmosis from Birchtree's conservative investment musings), leaving 10% in F and 10% in L2050. Technical reasoning (I left out Professional*): as more and more latecomers are now dumping billions into stocks I just feel a pullback is approaching despite the Marketwatch/CNBC wizards' latest assertions of ongoing bullish tide, and would rather lock in most of my January gains at this time

Who knows what the next move will be... presumably a hop back into mostly C/S to take advantage of the above-referenced, and of course imminent, pullback. Too bad I can't make another TSP move until Feb. Off to help others!!!! (adjusts cape)

*All nonsense aside, this author needs some serious market education and has a ton to learn from the veterans on this site. Comments or tips always welcome

G Fund 80%, F Fund 10%, L2050 ("Why? Just because") Fund 10% as of 01/23/13 IFT... and let the money roll in!!!

 

[99percent]

Welcome!

 

[wavecoder]

welcome!

 

[FishinFool]

A late update*, on Tueday (01/29) I moved remaining L2050 shares to the G fund (now packed to 90%) and left my remaining 10% in the F fund intact. Oh the rewards I have reaped over the last two negative Dow/S&P days as a result, for example a .01% gain today if the Autotracker has its figures dead to rights. I guess it beats a larger loss eh? Har har! <----- (pitiful "moment of triumph")

What will tomorrow bring...hmm the possibilities are numerous. I'm guessing the new jobs report, or at least in combination with the ISM and consumer sentiment data, will be a little lousier than anticipated. The much anticipated pullback is fast approaching and we're due for an even bigger one according to Marc Faber, and --haha, j/k, even a newcomer like me gets that Marc is pretty much wedded to predicting honey soaked bear festivals in the market. Still my finely tuned (but to what?) market sense tells me there is more down than up ahead for the Dow and S&P in the near term. Ready to buy the dip, build the PIP! :F

Question, what will I do if the jobs numbers and the other upcoming data (consumer sentiment, ISM, auto sales) end up looking even slightly better than expected, Bernanke smiles at a reporter during lunch, and the above-referenced Dow and S&P head for the stratosphere? Friends, the answer is nothing**... until that coolly predicted nosedive creates a wiser buying opportunity!! Only question then is, how much dive to watch on the sidelines before jumping back into the C and S in time honored "delayed to the close of business" fashion? You may well ask. If only I had an answer.


*for all and sundry anxious to discover the next FF Strategic TSP Action (aka "White Knuckled Guess")... and who wouldn't be!!

**"for at least a day"

G Fund 90% F Fund 10% and to the short term bullish trend I say Humbug!!!

 

[FishinFool]

Gentlemen (and Ladies):

If not already so, this thread may get boring fast. As I just blathered at length in Birchtree's account thread, I've come to new personal decision that hard core market timing isn't for me. Buy/hold investment strategy is more in my nature after doing a good bit of outside reading recently. Not trying to convince anyone of anything but I encountered some troubling arguments about long term market timing performance vs buy and hold. Therefore I just may be ready to adopt a more Birchtree oriented strategy. Gonna be in the TSP for a long time and I'm convinced that over a good number of years, buy/hold in the L2050 (or maybe just fairly even C,S,I division) will pay off more than many timing attempts. Boring perhaps but I am too worried about my account! Need to build a consistently good return over the long run. A New Year's Resolution and only a month late :F

 

[Birchtree]

It's going to be a buying panic sort of day.

 

[FishinFool]

It's going to be a buying panic sort of day.

Guilty... but informed panic with a long term purpose








100% L2050 as of 02/01/13 AND GONNA STAY THAT WAY!!! [subject to meltdown avoidance around 3rd Qtr 2013 ]

 

[Fran1775]

Fishing Fool

I appreciate your post, a lot of truth and laughs.
I bet the tears will come in if we're caught on the wrong side of the line (G) when the Bulls run to the stratosphere.

 

[FishinFool]

Well well well... look who's gone back on his buy and hold L2050 pledge:suspicious: Not going great gangbusters here but sitting at 4.38% in the AutoTracker. Just about 1% gain per month huh... not too bad I guess. Since my last little buy and hold meltdown I have tended to reside in the F fund a good bit of the time with all the talk of much-anticipated pullback but I've "sniped" the C and S a few times since late Feb, including today (muahaha). Over half a point gain each time by the looks of it...a Tour de Force return on dearly hoarded IFT's. Wouldn't ya know it, after I jumped to S and C (70/30) before deadline yesterday and the Dow tanked about 265, turns out the F gained only .09% that day. Hmmph! Was expecting a good .27%+ increase on my last effective F day with that kind of Dow hit. I suppose there could be a delay effect and maybe today the F will go up more instead. But I've had some days in the F with .25% gain, .20% etc during the whipsaw period we've seen... not bad. When out of C and S, kinda torn between residing in F and hoping for decent overall gains vs. just going G, saw an interesting remark by JTH about this. There is something to feeling "forced" to make a move if sitting in F and watching your bucks bleed out with the Dow rising (his point)... but on the other hand it's a pretty slow bleed. Dunno. Anyway... guess I'll be deciding in the next 40 minutes whether to hop back to F again today before deadline for another one-day .50-.70 snipe as opposed to letting it ride through this Friday or so. Sell in May go away again this year ladies and gentlemen?? For me it may be Sell on April 16 go away

 

[uscfanhawaii]

I am with you, brother!! :nuts:

 

[FishinFool]

I am with you, brother!! :nuts:

I did make a move back to the F with IFT before deadline today so enjoying the little 1%+ "sniping" gain today in my brief chicken-like stocks foray. Now if the Dow and S&P do that again tomorrow I'll be mad!! I predict a less than stellar day for both on Wed... the Wednesday blahs. "Instinct!" as J. Clouseau would say

 

[uscfanhawaii]

I did make a move back to the F with IFT before deadline today so enjoying the little 1%+ "sniping" gain today in my brief chicken-like stocks foray. Now if the Dow and S&P do that again tomorrow I'll be mad!! I predict a less than stellar day for both on Wed... the Wednesday blahs. "Instinct!" as J. Clouseau would say

Good Instinct!!! :blink:

 

[FishinFool]

It was interesting watching the futures bleed out this a.m., I suppose after the jobless data suggested "slackened pace of growth". Philly Fed coming up, and big earnings after the close. Dow already down 50. I'm staying in the F friends... not least because I've used 2 IFT's Could we be witnessing the famous pullback/correction that has been so anticipated since, say, mid-February?

 

[FishinFool]

Well friends, after getting paddled in the keister sitting in the F fund since the last round of IFT's in mid-April, just convinced that a downturn was in the cards as we headed into May, I finally got mad and ran to the C and S before deadline on Monday. Hence I enjoyed another delicious 1% bounce today, bringing me up over 6% again on the AT (can you believe I was down .70% MTD on the F fund, infuriating!). Then this a.m. as I saw the Dow up about 80 points and fought back the temptation to roll around on the floor like my cat used to do in a Moment of Triumph I remembered an interesting comment of Sensei's not so many days ago about the I fund's possible performance the next open day after a great U.S. market day... and saw another post this a.m. along similar lines. So I thought what the heck, I've never dipped a toe in the I fund, why not go 70% I and leave 15 in C and S respectively before running off to work? Now I'm all set to shake my fist at the "adjustment" thing they do with the I Fund as pushback against, I suppose, this very strategy. What a lousy buzzkill :suspicious: Will be keeping an eagle eye on the I Fund as I gather it can be volatile and I'd rather not crater in it. Gotta imagine a correction will come at some point here... but then They have been saying that for months now, haven't They... anyway, despite the strong bullish tone to things, I figure how much higher can the Dow/S&P still go without dropping some (or a lot), so why not try to wring more blood out of the I for a few+ days...

PS not sure how it's possible to take a rear paddling while sitting but I managed it

PPS will pretend the buy and holders haven't actually done better than I have this year by sitting there doing *nothing*, after all the agony I've been through trying to time this market!!

 

[nnuut]

Good catch FF!

 

[Sensei]

I remembered an interesting comment of Sensei's not so many days ago about the I fund's possible performance the next open day after a great U.S. market day...

Oh no...I hope you also remembered I was wrong. Good luck though!

 

[FishinFool]

Oh no...I hope you also remembered I was wrong. Good luck though!

Hehe... I did remember your following up about that but fwiw I'd chalk that time up to the new market weirdness. Could happen that way again but I thought it was a great idea and clearly you were in good company, I'd say often it's been a great call in the past. I have the feeling more often than not the I would hop up the way you predicted. Will be interesting to see this time, the Nikkei was up over 2% last time I checked! Very glad to try this experiment

 

[Cactus]

PPS will pretend the buy and holders haven't actually done better than I have this year by sitting there doing *nothing*, after all the agony I've been through trying to time this market!!

So far this year has not been a timer's market. Follow the trend my friend.

 

[FishinFool]

Well everybody I've decided that right at the moment, the I Fund isn't doing much good. Great performance in the C and S, but I only left 30% in there earlier in the week. I Fund did quite poorly even on (or after) the great C and S days... only .11% gain for funds in the I today. Hard to believe. Maybe I'll get a little pickup on my final I day Monday, but at this point I've made the move to G tonight with the 70% I had previously dumped in the I. Still glad I experimented and it's out of my system now...I still have yet to see a real explanation out there as to why the I is doing so badly right now. Granted there are European problems but I think that was still true when the I was doing better. And historically hasn't the I done pretty well following the US market activity on a given day? Aren't we the most important country in the world, and don't we steer everyone else?

So at this point I've got a toe or two in the C and S and otherwise have fled to safety, or at least boring predictability. This was my third IFT so could only move some funds to G, but frankly if I'd been able to go to F, not sure I would have this time. I may change my tune on that here in the near future as I do still think we're preparing for a market drop, and if either that or another period of wild chop comes about, I think the F will do pretty well. But let's see what things look like on June 1.

 

[Birchtree]

Well you might have cut the cord a little too soon. On Friday the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 0.2% amid strength in the auto sector. Data showed the European Union market for new passenger cars in April expanded for the first time since September 2011. The index was up 1.2% for the week. The I fund will move ahead of the European economy and is now starting to play catch up.