FishinFool's Account Talk

[hotwings]

Agree with cutting the cord on the I Fund too soon. I think the I fund is going to catch up to the US markets and that's where the biggest bang for the buck will be in the next 3-6 mos.

 

[FishinFool]

Agree with cutting the cord on the I Fund too soon. I think the I fund is going to catch up to the US markets and that's where the biggest bang for the buck will be in the next 3-6 mos.

Thanks guys it's certainly possible, I figured it would have to do better at some point but just worry that it won't for the next little while here, so I'm out of it for at least the very near term. What a strange market it's been this year. The things I "learned" to date haven't always panned out this time around, e.g. going to F by early May (and March, and... !) to "avoid" or take advantage of a presumably overdue (or at least due) market downturn. It's an odd circumstance with the latest QE of course. Not to ruin anyone's day but I sometimes watch the financial videos on daily stock market action from Tradesmart University (also Ira Epstein but who's counting), and in one recent video Tradesmart put out in ramping up their "Forex" program (no I'm not a subscriber or shill), the guy was mentioning that the value of the dollar has declined about 40% over the last 10 or so years and therefore our personal wealth has taken a huge hit over that time, even with the market "up" this year...forget the additional 2008 crash! He also was hinting that on that basis among other things, the country is really in a bona fide Depression (a hidden or at least publicly unacknowledged depression) and that central banking has tried but failed to lift us out of it. Bottom line is that QE can't go on too much longer and when it's gone, Katie bar the door! This little birdie will be ready for the F or G fund move when the meltdown starts... let's hope! That said, if the nosedive happens I'm gonna pull the Birchtree trigger at some point and buy...just a day or two before the bull market comes roaring back

 

[FishinFool]

Well here we are at the end of May. Still have a 30% toe in the C/S Funds but now what to do... things have been looking a little grim here lately including this a.m. until the surprisingly good PMI numbers came out. At some point, it becomes "what have you done for me lately"... market really bounced and erased all losses after that release, but I can see that sentiment disappearing very quickly on the next "what will the Fed do" (or more frankly, "when will it do it") article flurry. While I wouldn't say it's been a parabolic uptick in the Dow/S&P this year it's been a pretty decent up-curve here for a good while (and I'm focusing mostly on last month or so here). Harkening back to some pieces I reviewed back in the first couple months of this year... a number of guys (eg the Tradesmart University crew) were predicting a pretty good market "until the second half of the year". Guess what folks... we're just about there. Those predictions revolved around QE being scaled back beginning in that time frame... and this nice vibe from the latest PMI can be stood on its head: cue the "if things are getting better, maybe Ben will start the taper" chattering again ad nauseum. Bottom line is that with 7.5% in gain so far this year (not great I know but could be worse) I think it's time for this steely eyed gunslinger to go 100% G. Maybe hop to the F here when I have a new IFT to burn. It'll do better in June I tell you! Seriously, if we're in for a period of chop for some weeks as some market players are predicting, the F may do pretty well again as it did during the prior chop period a few months back. With plenty of time left in federal career I'll also be ready to buy C/S on a good dip...maybe! Getting more dangerous to do that at this point IMO. My real plan has been to sit in the F a good while during the summer doldrums and that may still play out... I just tried it too early this year.

 

[FishinFool]

One more thing in clarification (look at this guy talking to himself), I'm definitely still planning on trying to time the market on at least a macro scale (and micro when really obvious to me, as I've gotten away with several times this year!) but I personally am suspecting a decent pullback fairly soon. So tempted to hold off on any dip buying until there's really been a good 5+% drop this time around. We'll see! We all know I'm no expert and that's putting it mildly. Slowly learning a few things and slow and steady may win this race! Just kinda feel in my bones that when there really is a perceptible start to QE taper, a 8-10%+ drop could be in the cards. I know it's a bull market and all but this amount of gain since Jan. really doesn't seem like it'll come without consequence.

P.S. pulled the trigger this a.m., I'm now 100% G.

 

[FishinFool]

Decided to believe Avi Gilburt on Marketwatch another time here. Left G and went 80% S 20% C IFT today. Hopefully starting tomorrow will catch one more little updraft before The Plunge! It's only my retirement money and secure future, or lack thereof, right...

Should have pulled the trigger after the larger drop recently but chickened out

PS I laugh in the face of the Hindenberg Omen(s). Sort of a reverse jinx thing. Oh the humanity!!

 

[FishinFool]

Lookin' like a little bounce today as long as we don't melt down this afternoon. And so one day after giving the Hindenberg Omen the bird and grabbing the stocks... G 40% F 60% baby!

Let's see if the F can turn around as we get into market turbulence here. And we will get into turbulence...right?