Well the Nikkei is down about 1.5% overnight with the BOJ raising by a quarter of a point... the dollar was stronger however and Europe in early trading is down... presently 50% G and 50% I and trying to glean the bottom of the EFA... HMMMM... will have to continue studying... FIREANT
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Fireant's Account Talk
- Thread starter Fireant
- Start date
Going to sit on the sidelines... risk vs reward is way too much risk and I don't see much reward... the next couple of weeks should be interesting... hate sitting in the G fund but after just riding the C fund down the whole way from 2000-2002 I am a little more 'active' with my account and believe we are in dangerous territory at this present time and place... DA FIREANT>>>>
The_Technician
Active member
Yeap a good one shot.... its getting better as the day goes on......
Fireant, Try to post in the members Account Talk thread.....thanks again...
Fireant, Try to post in the members Account Talk thread.....thanks again...
Hold... Hold... Hold.... from a contrarian play I should slam all into the I fund today but awaiting the correction(hopefully)... believe u.s. markets are on borrowed time and the I fund will go down accordingly... still I am just itching to get into the I fund but gotta wait... da FIREANT>>>
This Da.. itch... gone all last week to St. Louis... come back and watch as the markets are all up nicely for the week... looked at the fundamentals, didn't like them, but figured I'd jump all in, ride the wave for a day or two, and jump out... NOW I am in the HOUSE OF PAIN>>> I am an idiot... had a nice year going as was up around 12% from start of year now I am SINKING by the thousands... I am AN IDIOT>>> must follow my rules and advice as I am disobeying them... now I have gotta figure out my stop-loss point... this is KILLING ME>>> DA FIREANT
Another house of pain... I should have seen this coming... a combination of subprime mess, yen carry trade unwind but most importantly imho is the hedge funds possible going under... last week when the discussed the quantu funds and the black box that a lot of them follow and the possible going belly-up of some of these funds.... we go from having all of this liquidity months ago to now where the Fed, ECB and Japan are all injecting liquidity and it still isn't helping the markets... why I wonder... it is because in my opinion all the hedge funds who follow the black box are being told by the bosses to get into a conservative position... this in turn is being capitulated upon by the hedge funds who are rocking hard by being short-sellers... I am in the house of pain again after attempting to be conservative this year and primarily in the 100% G fund... I should have gotten into the G fund last week... the technicals of the companies don't matter as everything is getting sold off... I need a little up bounce to get out but can't get it... This Sux... I'd like to see the institutional numbers as they are the ones who have caused this panic or selloff... DA FIREANT
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]It has just been announced that the Fed is approving a half-percentage cut in its discount rate on loans to banks. “In other words,” noted one analyst, “despite saying they wouldn’t bail out the markets, the risk is so high it looks like the underlying U.S. economy is at stake.” The first sign of panic, the first indication of pandemonium, is the application of desperate measures in an increasingly desperate situation. As St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole recently observed, “There’s no need for the Federal Reserve [to cut the discount rate before the next meeting] unless there’s some sort of calamity taking place….” [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]Last week the financial crisis was seen as “spreading.” In response, central banks poured out tens of billions. Alice Rivlin, a former Fed vice chairman, noted: “The Fed has almost unlimited ability to supply liquidity if they feel that it is appropriate.” But this statement doesn’t take panic or pandemonium into account. All the liquidity in the universe cannot quench the fires of Hell. The flames subside for a moment, but then they flare up anew. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]Panic is something that spreads. It begins in one place and moves outward, in every direction. “There is no fence against a panic fright,” wrote Thomas Fuller in 1732. When the herd fall prey to a pack of wolves, the herd begins to panic. Who will stop the panic? The government is expected to stop it. The government must do something. But the government is part of the herd. It shares the herd’s mentality. So who will save the government? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]Last week the financial crisis was seen as “spreading.” In response, central banks poured out tens of billions. Alice Rivlin, a former Fed vice chairman, noted: “The Fed has almost unlimited ability to supply liquidity if they feel that it is appropriate.” But this statement doesn’t take panic or pandemonium into account. All the liquidity in the universe cannot quench the fires of Hell. The flames subside for a moment, but then they flare up anew. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]Panic is something that spreads. It begins in one place and moves outward, in every direction. “There is no fence against a panic fright,” wrote Thomas Fuller in 1732. When the herd fall prey to a pack of wolves, the herd begins to panic. Who will stop the panic? The government is expected to stop it. The government must do something. But the government is part of the herd. It shares the herd’s mentality. So who will save the government? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]© 2007 Jeffrey R. Nyquist
Email l Website l FSO Archives[/FONT]
Email l Website l FSO Archives[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]GO TOP[/FONT]
[/FONT][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]GO TOP[/FONT]
I was all set up to jump back into the I fund and still stay ahead of it today... then the Fed cuts the discount rate and the markets rally... this is probably a dead-cat bounce as their are too many negative factors... sub-prime, housing, hedge funds going belly up, yen carry trade unwind, no liquidity... I gotta be in though to make money... as is now I am below the G fund... hmmm... I rode down the C fund from 2000 to 2002 like an idiot and told myself I never would again... Panic creates opportunity... want to wait but itching to pull the trigger and get back in the I... don't want to catch it going up though... what to do... what to do... DA FIREANT
Double top... the I fund looks like a double top is forming or formed... I'm bullish the I fund long-term but I'm up 12% this year and told myself that if I could make 12% this year I would be satisfied so hesitant to lose it... any tech gurus care to make an opinion as to the technicals... thanks... DA FIREANT
Strong Signals of Recession
No matter what the Fed does next Tuesday, the economy is most likely headed for recession. The August employment report was not a one-off event, but part of an overall pattern indicating a softening economy. Even prior to the latest release, year-over-year employment was already growing at a scant 1.4%, and with the August number now in the fold, growth is down to 1.2%. The following facts indicate the strong probability of recession developing in the period ahead if it has not already started.
1) Since 1953 there have been nine instances where year-over-year employment growth declined to 1.2% or less, and all nine occurred shortly before or after the start of a recession. There was not a single false signal.
2) Since 1960 there have been seven instances where year-over-year housing starts were down 30% or more, and six of the seven instances occurred shortly before or after a recession. There was one false signal in 1966 when a recession was narrowly averted and the S&P 500 dropped 25%.
3) Since 1960 there have been eight instances where the Conference Board leading indicators declined year-over-year, and seven of those instances were followed by recession. Once again the false signal occurred in 1966.
4) Of the last nine recessions, none were forecast by the consensus of economists, and even now, according to a Wall Street Journal survey, only 11 of 55 economists said there was at least a 50% chance, despite the depressed housing industry and credit market upheavals.
Summarizing the above numbers on employment, housing starts and the leading indicators, we have 24 data points, and 22 (92%) point to recession as opposed to two false signals. On the other hand the consensus of economists is 0 for 9. We see no reason why the recession signals will be false this time in light of the continuing collapse in housing and the re-pricing of risk in various markets throughout the globe.
The main bullish argument appears to be that the economy is still growing and that the Fed will keep it that way. We point out, however, that the economy always appears to be growing at the peak of a cycle, and that when we really get confirmation that it is actually declining, we are already deep into a recession. In fact, by the time the National Bureau of Economic research pinpointed the start of the last recession it was almost over. As for the Fed, since monetary policy works on the economy with anywhere from a 6-to-18 month lag, any action taken now will have little near-term effect.
No matter what the Fed does next Tuesday, the economy is most likely headed for recession. The August employment report was not a one-off event, but part of an overall pattern indicating a softening economy. Even prior to the latest release, year-over-year employment was already growing at a scant 1.4%, and with the August number now in the fold, growth is down to 1.2%. The following facts indicate the strong probability of recession developing in the period ahead if it has not already started.
1) Since 1953 there have been nine instances where year-over-year employment growth declined to 1.2% or less, and all nine occurred shortly before or after the start of a recession. There was not a single false signal.
2) Since 1960 there have been seven instances where year-over-year housing starts were down 30% or more, and six of the seven instances occurred shortly before or after a recession. There was one false signal in 1966 when a recession was narrowly averted and the S&P 500 dropped 25%.
3) Since 1960 there have been eight instances where the Conference Board leading indicators declined year-over-year, and seven of those instances were followed by recession. Once again the false signal occurred in 1966.
4) Of the last nine recessions, none were forecast by the consensus of economists, and even now, according to a Wall Street Journal survey, only 11 of 55 economists said there was at least a 50% chance, despite the depressed housing industry and credit market upheavals.
Summarizing the above numbers on employment, housing starts and the leading indicators, we have 24 data points, and 22 (92%) point to recession as opposed to two false signals. On the other hand the consensus of economists is 0 for 9. We see no reason why the recession signals will be false this time in light of the continuing collapse in housing and the re-pricing of risk in various markets throughout the globe.
The main bullish argument appears to be that the economy is still growing and that the Fed will keep it that way. We point out, however, that the economy always appears to be growing at the peak of a cycle, and that when we really get confirmation that it is actually declining, we are already deep into a recession. In fact, by the time the National Bureau of Economic research pinpointed the start of the last recession it was almost over. As for the Fed, since monetary policy works on the economy with anywhere from a 6-to-18 month lag, any action taken now will have little near-term effect.
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