Fedgolfer's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

figured i'd start a thread for the new year so I can limit my poo-poo postings on other threads... let's go OSMs, 100% I... bottoms up.

 

[fedgolfer]

Currently 100% I fund, contemplating move to S fund in hopes of catching some seasonality and January Effect. Not sure how I want to time it considering Japanese markets will likely bump up the I fund. TA on DWCP and EFA showing some legs left before they get overbought on the short term... Williams R is one of the indicators I watch that is already overbought... but I'm not worried about that tipping the scales because I think the bulls will be on parade until the VIX has a few days north of the magic number "12".

 

[fedgolfer]

TA on DWCP and DWCPF starting to look ripe for a buy... but the econ calendar could delay that a couple trading days. F fund chart pattern has the price near the top of a channel trendline, but looks due for a poppin' as the herd looks to become defensive. 50% f, 50% g.

Lookin' to buy some S when it becomes oversold and a true bottom of the Price Channel(20) can be determined.

 

[fedgolfer]

my real IFT transfer on tsp.gov never entered, it sat idle for 15 minutes. I'm still 100% I. A discrepency already, 3 trading days into the new year.

 

[ATCJeff]

my real IFT transfer on tsp.gov never entered, it sat idle for 15 minutes. I'm still 100% I. A discrepency already, 3 trading days into the new year.

I started my IFT at 11:42 and it took 13 mins. I also did a allocation change during the 13 mins.

 

[fedgolfer]

... I was kind of PO'd it tsp.gov never took it. But I think the damage, if any, will not be as bad as I originally thought. I'm hoping for another case of "its better to be lucky than good."

 

[fedgolfer]

... my rejected IFT out of I is gonna punch me in the gut. I don't think I want to stick around for a dead cat bounce though. I think DWCP, EFA and S&P will need the Fast stoch %k(14) %d(3) will need the %d(3) to hit 20% or below to think about jumping in, could happen on intraday movement though. the %k(14) is already in overbought territory for DWCP and EFA and the lower bollinger band looks like it may provide possible support... but I'm leaning to thinking it won't. I'm a little woozy from my failed IFT. My initial thought of 50% F and 50% G looked like a should have followed my gut. Good thought, awful execution. Lesson learned.

 

[fedgolfer]

TA telling me Buy, gut telling me not yet due to trendlines on chart patterns, VIX overrides my gut and shows some room, econ rpts and earnings may lend a hand... 50 s, 50 i

 

[fedgolfer]

... i'm not sure if i'm more excited about the the intraday reversal/inverted head and shoulders or the VIX going below 12. Hopefully, the harbinger of a couple days of green.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^vix;range=3m;indicator=sma(20,50,200)+psar+bollinger+stochasticfast;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

...a one or two day bump down on the vix to 11 then back up and sell out. 3 days closing above 12 is a definite sign of more lasting fear in the market... the symetrical triangle slowly forming on s fund prices also says a larger pop is nearing.

 

[fedgolfer]

Nasdaq at a critical ground now, if it breaks above ~2471 and holds it will prevent the triple top... hopefully earnings will keep it above. I think for the bull to continue a tech led run needs to be in the cards. Strength of DWCP speaks for itself, 4 strong candlesticks approaching the PSAR. Now, if I can just find an effective exit strategy for I fund/EFA, it's battered me so bad I can't think straight, don't want to exit to early but don't want any more losses.

 

[fedgolfer]

50% g, 25 %s, 25% i

getting a bit defensive, preserving some gains after my I fund debacle. May not be as easy to get the quick gains back if they tank again. Still in a bullish tilt so i'm keepin' half in. If the C and S didn't show potential double and triple tops, I would have been 100% stocks with an earnings season coming on that one would think, would show strong 4th Qtr rpts.

 

[fedgolfer]

If the C and S didn't show potential double and triple tops, I would have been 100% stocks with an earnings season coming on that one would think, would show strong 4th Qtr rpts.

NOTE TO SELF: Keep your eye on the ball and weigh the tech analysis of stochastics and VIX over my doodled trend lines.

 

[fedgolfer]

... with OSMs up big on the MLK holiday and with financials leading off the earnings week, there seems to be a lot of positive momentum. A harbinger of strong earnings could be the huge holiday bonuses given to executives in the financial sector. Supposedly many bonuses were record setting, which probably reflects their company's growth for the full year, or, a precursor of what's to come from the 4th qtr rpts. With oil/energy taking a hit and Schlumberger announcing at the end of the week, I may go heavy into stocks at the beginning and then try to get defensive at the end of the week if the movements in the indices go as predicted. That's obviously all speculation but the charts are leaning towards a possible break in several overlay indicators with room in the stochastics to go higher.

 

[fedgolfer]

... just getting a little more defensive, financials not providing the anticipated boost due to inverted yield curve. Lots of earnings still ahead so keeping a little on the table. I fund stochastics still look good but that dollar index is dancing a little too much.

 

[fedgolfer]

Looking at chart patterns this AM, there's a lot of indecision on the S fund, C fund looks like it may be close to a buying op if the price closes around the 20day MA ($15.72); I fund looks like it may retreat to its 10 and 20 day MA if it follows the USMs. From a TA p.o.v., it doesn't look too hot for the S&P, DWCP or the EFA. There's a need for there to be some convincing news to get people to buy from this point with rates frozen. Although Jim Cramer is of the minority that thinks Fed will still LOWER the rate... obviously there's still some time betweem now and the 1/31 Fed policy statement... who thinks there's going to be a suprise in there? I think the market needs that as a catalyst, without out it, we're sideways and possibly even downward. Thoughts?

 

[350zCommTech]

who thinks there's going to be a suprise in there? I think the market needs that as a catalyst, without out it, we're sideways and possibly even downward. Thoughts?

I've said this before and I'll say it again. The feds will not lower rates until we get a negative jobs number or 0%/- GDP. Everybody knows that jobs are lagging indicators, but the Feds will waite until it's obvious. This could be setting up for disappointments in the markets.

 

[fedgolfer]

... I agree with you, and it appears the indices do to as they have priced in the rate news since December. There are also several stories/opinions that Bernanke will be more proactive than Greenspan in digesting and reacting to the data, we shall soon find out how proactive the Bernanke-Fed really is. Since there's a lot of speculation, sounds like the defensive position is the solid one until the cards are layed out... THANKS!

added note: C fund is close to buying op and if it closes where it is now, its in the middle of the 10 and 20 DMA. Just buying the dip, not to enthralled about the markets, VIX has room to head north.

 

[fedgolfer]

positioned myself mostly in F yesterday, still unsure about my positioning because if AGG doesn't hold $99.60 support line, the confirmation of a descending triangle will be fulfilled leading to the continuation pattern down... drawing the chart lines, the triangle is getting very close to coming to a point, maybe within a few trading days... which coincidentally falls close to the FOMC policy statement at the end of the month... working that piece of econ news into it, I highly doubt AGG will push significantly higher before that date. the only thing that could surprise pop AGG to the north side would be a suprise in the Fed statement/rate... and the vast majority is leaning against that. So, I'm going out of F and if the USMs can hold the breakout I may be back with more %ages in the stock funds, if they don't look like they can hold it, then i'm all in G.

 

[fedgolfer]

... if the resistance points from yesterday's intraday chart prove to not hold this AM's support points, the intraday chart fo today will look like a head fake. Too hard to call the intraday patterns for the next few days with all the earnings and econ news on slate, but a head and shoulders looks to be in the making on the S&P.

 

[fedgolfer]

... yup, the market doesn't like that 99.6 number on the AGG/F fund. Seems to be fulfilling the pattern discussed above. Watch it before the IFT deadline for further confirmation.