The Dow gained 22-points yesterday but the broader indices experienced modest losses as we head into today's FOMC policy statement. The last two trading days have been the lightest trading volume days of the year as investors are on hold. Some weaker than expected retail sales data set the tone for the day early on but the bears were not able to hold the opening losses as dip buyers jumped in.
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Oil was down again but for a second day in a row the prices rose well off of the morning lows by the close.
Look for a policy statement from the Fed at about 2 PM ET today. Until then all bets, and probably analysis, are off.
The small caps (Dow Completion Index / S-fund) look to have broken below a rising wedge pattern and the support line from the bottom of a trading channel. But it also may be forming a bullish flag (blue). The 50-day EMA would be about where the bull flag would try to find some support.
The price of crude oil broke down from its trading channel. The logical initial target of a pullback would be the 50-day EMA.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) remains in a large rising trading channel but still trades below the 200-day EMA.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) remains in a pennant formation that may be waiting for the fed before deciding which way to break out. The formation is bullish for bonds suggesting the Fed could be sending bond prices higher, but you never know what they might have up their sleeves.
Administrative Note: The March Madness Tournament Contest has started in the forum so if you have any interest in joining, please click on that link. It's free and there are prizes for the top picks.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Oil was down again but for a second day in a row the prices rose well off of the morning lows by the close.
Look for a policy statement from the Fed at about 2 PM ET today. Until then all bets, and probably analysis, are off.
The S&P 500 (C-Fund) traded on very light volume yesterday ahead of today's Fed meeting. There is some sticky resistance in the current area where the 200-day SMA, the longer-term descending resistance line, and the bottom of a rising wedge are all converging. The Fed has the ability to push stocks above the resistance or send the S&P back down from that resistance. Whatever happens, the action will be emotional and the initial reaction may not be easy to trust. Remember that stocks sold off initially on the ECB rate decision only to see stocks bounce back strongly during the following days.
The small caps (Dow Completion Index / S-fund) look to have broken below a rising wedge pattern and the support line from the bottom of a trading channel. But it also may be forming a bullish flag (blue). The 50-day EMA would be about where the bull flag would try to find some support.
The price of crude oil broke down from its trading channel. The logical initial target of a pullback would be the 50-day EMA.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) remains in a large rising trading channel but still trades below the 200-day EMA.
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) remains in a pennant formation that may be waiting for the fed before deciding which way to break out. The formation is bullish for bonds suggesting the Fed could be sending bond prices higher, but you never know what they might have up their sleeves.
Administrative Note: The March Madness Tournament Contest has started in the forum so if you have any interest in joining, please click on that link. It's free and there are prizes for the top picks.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
