07/12/13
Stocks rallied sharply after Fed says they think the jobs market is too weak to slow down their bond buying. "They" say don't fight the Fed, and this is why. The Dow gained 169-points.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.53%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +1.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +1.32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +2.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 made a new closing high yesterday, although we saw a higher intraday high on May 22.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term chart shows the sharp angle of incline of this recent rally off the June low is about the same as the rally we saw in April May. Very bullish looking, but not invincible and the angle is not sustainable for very long period of time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 put in its 12th consecutive positive day, and yesterday's action would be a textbook definition of an exhaustion gap.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Exhaustion Gap Definition | Investopedia
I don't want to make light of new highs because after all, a new high is generally a sign of strength when buyers are willing to buy at levels never hit before. But it is not uncommon to see new highs fail within days. We saw it twice in 2007...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And in 2012...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Sentiment is finally getting more bullish. It sure took investors enough time to believe in this rally. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in at 49% bulls, 18% bears for a bull to bear ratio of 2.67 to 1. That's normally a negative (bearish) reading but this chart shows that when we hit that level for the first time, stocks can continue higher for some time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The recent TSP Talk Sentiment Survey saw its most bullish reading since January, although it wasn't quite enough to move the system to a sell signal.
The bull (58%) to bear (32%) ratio was 1.81 to 1. In a bull market the system won't give a sell signal until it hits 2.0 to 1.
We have weak employment data, weaker year over year earnings, a slow growth environment (disappointing GDP), a sequester, $17 trillion in national debt, oil is back over $100 a barrel, etc., yet the market is soaring. I assume at some point the bears will have their day, but this tells us why technical analysis is so important. I like to think I am more of an investors that does the market is telling me to do, but this recent rally took me by surprise and I'm just stuck waiting for a better opportunity.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Administrative Note: Starting last week, we have started a new service for you. Don't worry, it's free for a while. Some of you may know our forum member Coolhand, who has been posting and writing blogs in the forum for us for nearly 9 years. He has started a weekly report in the premium service area, which is and available to everyone who has created a premium service login. You will have to login to view the reports.
At some point in the future, and we are targeting January 2014 as the start date, "Coolhand's Market Analysis" will become a full service, daily subscription based premium service. If you don't have a login to the premium area yet, here is how to create one: Create Account. If you need help, please read FAQ #1... How do I sign up? or watch this quick instructional video. If you have an account, just login - www.tsptalk.com/members.
Also: The Ebbchart Premium Service will retire at the end of July so we won't be taking any new subscribers, or renewing monthly subscriptions come July 1. All current subscribers will have access through July 31, but we won't be charging any more renewal payments.
I want to thank ebbnflow for his years of dedicated reports and service. It has been a pleasure working with him. He is moving onto another endeavor and I wish him the best of luck!
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied sharply after Fed says they think the jobs market is too weak to slow down their bond buying. "They" say don't fight the Fed, and this is why. The Dow gained 169-points.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.0057%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.53%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +1.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +1.32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +2.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 made a new closing high yesterday, although we saw a higher intraday high on May 22.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term chart shows the sharp angle of incline of this recent rally off the June low is about the same as the rally we saw in April May. Very bullish looking, but not invincible and the angle is not sustainable for very long period of time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq 100 put in its 12th consecutive positive day, and yesterday's action would be a textbook definition of an exhaustion gap.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Exhaustion Gap Definition | Investopedia
I don't want to make light of new highs because after all, a new high is generally a sign of strength when buyers are willing to buy at levels never hit before. But it is not uncommon to see new highs fail within days. We saw it twice in 2007...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And in 2012...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Sentiment is finally getting more bullish. It sure took investors enough time to believe in this rally. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in at 49% bulls, 18% bears for a bull to bear ratio of 2.67 to 1. That's normally a negative (bearish) reading but this chart shows that when we hit that level for the first time, stocks can continue higher for some time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The recent TSP Talk Sentiment Survey saw its most bullish reading since January, although it wasn't quite enough to move the system to a sell signal.
The bull (58%) to bear (32%) ratio was 1.81 to 1. In a bull market the system won't give a sell signal until it hits 2.0 to 1.
We have weak employment data, weaker year over year earnings, a slow growth environment (disappointing GDP), a sequester, $17 trillion in national debt, oil is back over $100 a barrel, etc., yet the market is soaring. I assume at some point the bears will have their day, but this tells us why technical analysis is so important. I like to think I am more of an investors that does the market is telling me to do, but this recent rally took me by surprise and I'm just stuck waiting for a better opportunity.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Administrative Note: Starting last week, we have started a new service for you. Don't worry, it's free for a while. Some of you may know our forum member Coolhand, who has been posting and writing blogs in the forum for us for nearly 9 years. He has started a weekly report in the premium service area, which is and available to everyone who has created a premium service login. You will have to login to view the reports.
At some point in the future, and we are targeting January 2014 as the start date, "Coolhand's Market Analysis" will become a full service, daily subscription based premium service. If you don't have a login to the premium area yet, here is how to create one: Create Account. If you need help, please read FAQ #1... How do I sign up? or watch this quick instructional video. If you have an account, just login - www.tsptalk.com/members.
Also: The Ebbchart Premium Service will retire at the end of July so we won't be taking any new subscribers, or renewing monthly subscriptions come July 1. All current subscribers will have access through July 31, but we won't be charging any more renewal payments.
I want to thank ebbnflow for his years of dedicated reports and service. It has been a pleasure working with him. He is moving onto another endeavor and I wish him the best of luck!
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
