fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

There goes my XLF.

Let me try yesterday's statement again.

The market is going to tank this afternoon.

 

[fabijo]

Quick science news break. This may possibly be the first image of a planet orbiting a sunlike star outside our solar system:

Snapshot of a planet beyond the solar system

“If this object is a planet at such a wide separation it would challenge our conceptions of planet and companion formation,” says theorist Adam Burrows of Princeton University.

...

A widely accepted model suggests that the planet-forming disks of gas, dust and ice that surround newborn stars concentrate most of their material close to their stars.

...

Which begs the question, “if this object really is what they think it is, what the hell is it doing out there,” 330 AU from the star, says theorist Alan Boss of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington, D.C.

Maybe we'll find the answers by next year, when we use the new atom smasher at full power to recreate the Big Bang.

 

[Guest2]

we are not alone
​

 

[fabijo]

Wow. I've been on the road all day. Can we say, shakeout? I hope many people are truly frightened of the market by now.

I've heard just about everyone I ran into talking about the market being bad. I hope they don't trust this upswing. The moment I hear people talking about getting back into the market, I might just take some off the table.

 

[Birchtree]

I mentioned awhile back that price would catch up to breadth on the XLF - today should help.

 

[fabijo]

Well, I just made a risky move. I went 100% G out of 100% C. This is a short play. I plan on going back in on a dip - if one happens.

I might be shooting myself with this move. Plenty more upside on the way.

 

[The_Technician]

Well, I just made a risky move. I went 100% G out of 100% C. This is a short play. I plan on going back in on a dip - if one happens.

I might be shooting myself with this move. Plenty more upside on the way.

Might be a good move, wish it was more towards the end of month for ya though as I expect it to go on to 1300 or so......this 2 trade thing is a real hum dinger...really bites ya, the TSP board really has done a disservice to us.

 

[presskh]

Well, I just made a risky move. I went 100% G out of 100% C. This is a short play. I plan on going back in on a dip - if one happens.

I might be shooting myself with this move. Plenty more upside on the way.

Agree, Fab. I might drink some of the Kool-aid along with you next week. I also bailed back to the lilly pad COB today.

 

[fabijo]

Last night, Cramer was telling his audience that on Monday the battle plan is to sell 20% of your portfolio. Sell any financial stocks because this rally is the time to get out of those toxic waste holdings.

That guy is insane. Is he going to take responsibility for ruining people's lives? Sure, Monday may be a down day or a small up day. Tuesday could be another dip, releasing those endorphins into the people that listen to him - they'll feel smart and assured that they did the right thing. That may just be the perfect day for me to jump back in.

I can't wait. I hope the great shakeout isn't over yet.

 

[Show-me]

GE and CNBC will rue the day they hired him.

 

[fabijo]

rue: Repentance, regret; Pity, compassion; (transitive) To make (someone) repent of sin or regret some past action; (transitive) To make (someone) feel sorrow or pity; To repent of or regret (some past action or event); to wish a past action undone; (intransitive) To feel compassion or pity

 

[Birchtree]

I really feel empathy for all the chaste lilly padders that are frozen for the next seven trading days - the question I ask myself is if I buy a stock today, where will it be two or three years from now. I view my tugboat the same way as I accumulate more shares at ever lower prices. That way even if the market hasn't hit bottom, and my stocks continue to go lower in the next few months, I'm still coming in near the lows, which is what buying low and selling high is all about. I did that recently with some of my commodity stocks. So I follow the one true strategy most financial advisors agree on - when it comes to investing, think long-term and leave the market timing to chicletts.

 

[poolman]

I really feel empathy for all the chaste lilly padders that are frozen for the next seven trading days - the question I ask myself is if I buy a stock today, where will it be two or three years from now. I view my tugboat the same way as I accumulate more shares at ever lower prices. That way even if the market hasn't hit bottom, and my stocks continue to go lower in the next few months, I'm still coming in near the lows, which is what buying low and selling high is all about. I did that recently with some of my commodity stocks. So I follow the one true strategy most financial advisors agree on - when it comes to investing, think long-term and leave the market timing to chicletts.

I Totally understand your method and I don't disagree with it for some folks. Active Trader's which is more what this sight is about IMO can do better managing their own account's. I have beat the S&P for the last 10 year's trading.

I was very happy to find this sight. I see that I have had even better returns having competition.

My plan is to be #1 on the Auto Tracker by EOY..... Bet's ????

 

[Corepuncher]

I really feel empathy for all the chaste lilly padders that are frozen for the next seven trading days

I feel great about my choice to be on the lilly pad, even if the market goes up next week.

Gold and the Dollar will be the real tell. I predict the dollar to go down, Gold to go up, and stocks to falter. There is no reason for the Dollar to strengthen now...that reversal we had out of the July lows is now BROKEN due to the governments actions. Looking at the U.S. from abroad...why would anyone want to put their money here now? It is obvious to everyone that we are in serious trouble.

Gold will rocket upwards once more as the dollar falls. I have noticed that there is approximately a 2-1 inverse relationship between the dollar and gold (the dollar wags the gold tail). I like to look at UUP for dollar, and GLD for gold.

How can anyone make a bullish argument for the future of the American economy given our current state? Long gold, short dollar, short stocks. Cha-Ching. Oh...and Oil will continue to go up once the dollar tanks. Goldman's forecast of 150 oil by years end is now BACK IN PLAY IMO...given the recent developments.

 

[Birchtree]

Exactly my dear comrade who would want to invest in America at this point in time. My advice to you is simple - the market will do everything, and I do mean everything, to keep the majority (and that means you) from participating, bull markets do not like company, only at the top. A C fund of $15.38 by the end of the month - $17.50 by the end of the year. The VIX actually rose during the market advance of 1996 to 1998. How do I knoiw that - I was there. I was also there at the bottom in 1982. Expect the big valley V from this point forward - you'll have plenty of time to get in at higher prices if you dare.

 

[Corepuncher]

Exactly my dear comrade who would want to invest in America at this point in time. My advice to you is simple - the market will do everything, and I do mean everything, to keep the majority (and that means you) from participating, bull markets do not like company, only at the top. A C fund of $15.38 by the end of the month - $17.50 by the end of the year. The VIX actually rose during the market advance of 1996 to 1998. How do I knoiw that - I was there. I was also there at the bottom in 1982. Expect the big valley V from this point forward - you'll have plenty of time to get in at higher prices if you dare.

Honestly Birch, you would be saying the same thing if it was 1929. Every once in a while, there are black swan events. Of course they are so rare, that betting on them is usually a losing bet. However, there is enough doubt right now as to our future, that it should keep us from enjoying a sustainable rally, IMO. Make no mistake about it...CONFIDENCE IN THE U.S. ECONOMY IS KAPUT. I guess we will see who is right by years end.

 

[fabijo]

Monday will probably be a big pop, nice drop on Tuesday to really scare people, maybe even continue into Wednesday. Flat Thursday. Fun Friday.

Why not? Let's just play with emotions.

 

[Corepuncher]

Monday will probably be a big pop, nice drop on Tuesday to really scare people, maybe even continue into Wednesday. Flat Thursday. Fun Friday.

Why not? Let's just play with emotions.

Wall Street fell asleep and has waken up on another planet. The rules are different, and risks unknown. Scary stuff. Just wait until we get a REAL panic. October will be very interesting to say the least.

 

[Birchtree]

I rode many October panics called massacres back in the late 1970s and they all ended the same way - massive rebound rallies. Be in to win is what I say. The futures look weak right now so we'll probably get an opening drop to please the profit takers and then comes the interday rally back up another 400-500 points or better.

 

[Corepuncher]

I rode many October panics called massacres back in the late 1970s and they all ended the same way - massive rebound rallies. Be in to win is what I say. The futures look weak right now so we'll probably get an opening drop to please the profit takers and then comes the interday rally back up another 400-500 points or better.

Hey...just as long as the bottom is after October 1st, I will be pleased