F Fund where will it go ?

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350zCommTech said:
F fund only up 6 cents. F Funders got screwed.
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Barclays what's a few cents from a few billion friends. They are now buying LEH assets and if you see my post below first they made money on the 10 year note today BILLIONS now they will use that $$ to buy LEH assets so in the end Barclays bought LEH for NOTHING !!! How is that for a scam.
 
The bail-out plan discussion is starting to make me :sick:. So will you help me take it to a level we can do something about? What can we do to maximize our TSP returns?

I'm trying to figure out what this unprecedented situation is going to do to F Fund. Normally F Fund seesaws with the equity markets. But what is the bailout going to do to yields?

Let's develop a constructive conversation about where we see F Fund going short-term (say, the next month or so) and more long-term (say, the next six to nine months).

What are your thoughts? Thanks!

Lady
 
very hard to tell:

In july, bonds did tank with stocks, then they went up, and then down again recently - but nowhere to the depths as the other funds.

the aggregate bonds have been behaving as a safe haven recently from alot of bad news; credit, reduced consumption, increased unemployment.

BigBully is the only one who has been able to time the F fund recently, and actively transfers in and out of there with success; I don't know how he does it.
 
Thanks for your comments, Amoeba! I was thinking of trying F, but maybe the whole credit situation is just too weird. I'm not going in unless a trend tells me that's the way to go.

Lady
 
XL-entLady said:
Thanks for your comments, Amoeba! I was thinking of trying F, but maybe the whole credit situation is just too weird. I'm not going in unless a trend tells me that's the way to go.

Lady
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I think it could lose a few cents on an up day. Right now the futures are up over $200
 
XL-entLady said:
The bail-out plan discussion is starting to make me :sick:. So will you help me take it to a level we can do something about? What can we do to maximize our TSP returns?

I'm trying to figure out what this unprecedented situation is going to do to F Fund. Normally F Fund seesaws with the equity markets. But what is the bailout going to do to yields?

Let's develop a constructive conversation about where we see F Fund going short-term (say, the next month or so) and more long-term (say, the next six to nine months).

What are your thoughts? Thanks!

Lady
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I believe the day the bailout passes the F Fund will really drop and if that C Fund gets to $14.50 - $14.75 I will move 100% over to the F Fund. Once the markets breaks and it will at some point in October I don't want to be in it and the Fed could do a rate cut which will also kick in.
 
Braveheart said:
I believe the day the bailout passes the F Fund will really drop and if that C Fund gets to $14.50 - $14.75 I will move 100% over to the F Fund. Once the markets breaks and it will at some point in October I don't want to be in it and the Fed could do a rate cut which will also kick in.
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That makes a lot of sense! Food for thought. Thanks for sharing!

Lady
 
I don't know what the heck is happening in the bond market right now, but the "F" fund (symbol AGG) is showing DOWN 3.3% percent right now.

That is UNHEARD OF in the history of TSP. "F" fund has never moved more than a full percent in any one day that I am aware of. This would be the equivelant of OVER 40 cents per share drop in the "F" fund value if this holds.

It's like an earthquake.
 
James, I was just going to post the same thing - AGG is down 3.6% now!

That is at least a five-year low. Could be some mass short-term rotation/speculation in equities based on the pending vote tonight, or the start of something really bad.

Possible opportunity, or knife-catching attempt, for the brave.
 
James48843 said:
I don't know what the heck is happening in the bond market right now, but the "F" fund (symbol AGG) is showing DOWN 3.3% percent right now.

That is UNHEARD OF in the history of TSP. "F" fund has never moved more than a full percent in any one day that I am aware of. This would be the equivelant of OVER 40 cents per share drop in the "F" fund value if this holds.

It's like an earthquake.
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Smart money worried about what the bail-out will do to yields? :confused::confused:

So much for F Fund being a "sort of" safe fund!

Lady
 
justbizness45 said:
Ok, so the AGG was down .71% for the day, why did the F fund go up?
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One good reason might be that the iShares AGG pays out a Dividend Yield
of 4.8% and the (F) Fund pays no dividend. Just as Fee's for IFT's hit the
TSP Funds, the AGG fee's are most likely higher then the TSP's (F) Fund.

I want to say that I remember reading about a different closing time for
the Bond Market, as opposed to the Stock Market. If that holds true, then
the (F) Fund might have a FV situation it contends with as well. Not as
drastic as the (I) Fund has, but a small one, non the less. Maybe someone
could add to this answer based on their direct knowledge. Please correct
me if I'm off base with anything I've written, I want to understand the
(F) Fund vs. the AGG better too ! ;)
 
Was there a test of the 10 year Bond today at 2:22 PM EST - read this below and there is a link. Was this a live test today right on the F Fund. In my opinion the charts say yes because the volume stopped right at that time then resumed. This information is for a 30 year below but something happened at 2:22 PM on October 1, 2008 that was more than odd !!!

The bailout of Wall Street may not have ultimate costs as high as the nominal bailout amount, but the interest payments on the debt will come due immediately, and the recoveries from Wall Street, if any, will take many years.
The impact of the bailout which will surely happen in one form or the other, will impact taxes, interest rates, the exchange rate of the Dollar, imports and exports, foreign direct investment both in and out of the US, corporate sales and profits, and a long list of economic and investment dimensions too long to mention and to unknowable to predict.
You can bet that your investments will be heavily impacted — fixed income (proxies AGG and IEF), domestic equities (proxies SPY and VTI), international equities (proxies EFA and EEM), real estate (proxy VNQ), commodities (proxies DJP, USO and GLD), currencies (proxies UUP and UDN) and other types of investments will all be impacted.
It’s too soon for us to come up with investment or disinvestment recommendations we’re willing to publish. However, one big factor in how things play out is the size of the tab for the bailout on a per investor basis.
We’ve noodled some costs we’d like to share with you here.
Per Taxpayer Annual Costs:
Who will pay how much and for how long for the bailout?
With the assumptions below, how much would taxpayers in each bracket have to pay per year for 30 years to support the debt service on the bonds issued for the bailout, assuming 30-year amortization of a sinking fund?
  • <LI _extended="true">if the total bailout is $1 trillion (the prior $300 billion already paid out, plus the $700 billion proposed to be paid out), <LI _extended="true">and if the money is borrowed by the US using 30-year Treasury bonds, <LI _extended="true">and if the interest rate is the 4.13% rate for 30-yr bonds today <LI _extended="true">and if taxpayers are burdened to the same degree that they currently pay taxes
  • then WOW!
The annual cost per average taxpayer is $439, but the distribution among income segments is tremendously skewed.
The bill for the top 1% of taxpayers is a shocking $173,000 per year. The annual bill for the bottom 50% of taxpayers is an easy $27

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98028-bailout-cost-per-taxpayer-by-income
 
F Fund is debt (bonds) where the credit crunch(y) chickens are coming to roost, at the same time it's the usual place to go when you don't want to buy stock. I think both camps are having a little skirmish right now. Waiting on the House isn't helping either.
 
Silverbird said:
F Fund is debt (bonds) where the credit crunch(y) chickens are coming to roost, at the same time it's the usual place to go when you don't want to buy stock. I think both camps are having a little skirmish right now. Waiting on the House isn't helping either.
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I'm sure you're 115% right in your analysis there too, Silverbird.

In normal times I would be running to F Fund right now. But I think that there are going to have to be a lot of bond offerings in the next little while and that will drive the yield in the bond market down. What do you think?

Lady
 
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