F Fund where will it go ?

[poolman]

The F-Fund is on fire and gosh darnet I sure missed that train, or have I?

Anyone have some insight as to where the F-Fund will go from here?

Is it too late to catch the train?

F Fund $12.29

That is really Hard to say JTH. I'm going to stay with it until I see a Definitive change happening. Right now I think the Market's are going to be in a Free Fall from present levels which makes me want to stay in the F - Fund. I'm not saying the Fund can't lose a couple of pennies. I'll stay in for that. I do think we will break the January Lowe's. Way to much Bad news. And that makes the F - Fund a good choice.

 

[JTH]

Alright everyone, I've been hearing lots of talk about AGG, F and the financials recently.

Can someone here break it down into laymens terms?

 

[CountryBoy]

Did I read somewhere that the F Fund, Bond market, closes at 3 pm EST? Or is it just wishful thinking? :laugh:

CB

 

[c35pc]

Group whats your thoughts on the F fund. I saw alot of posts saying get out on monday...but the fund is doing good. Any relationship to the fanny may thing? I just cant find any outlooks on where the F fund is trending. Thanks for any info....G

 

[nnuut]

I've seen the "F" do better than the "C", but the financials are a mess Fannie May and Freddie Mac are THE BIG Bond Companies It looks like the AGG is going to reach some strong resistance very soon, and I would NOT venture a GUESS as to which way it goes.
View attachment 4632

 

[tsptalk]

Group whats your thoughts on the F fund. I saw alot of posts saying get out on monday...but the fund is doing good. Any relationship to the fanny may thing? I just cant find any outlooks on where the F fund is trending. Thanks for any info....G

The F fund (bonds) will usually find buyers when the markets get in trouble. We were talking the other day in another thread about the Europeans buying up our bonds lately, as a flight to quality. It could be keeping them afloat. If / when the market bottoms, bonds should head back down, in my opinion.

I wish I had taken advantage of the F fund more during this downturn. I have it in my head that with the transfer limits, the F fund transfers are just a waste of a valuable IFT, but if played correctly, that may not be the case.

We can take a 100% G allocation, to 100% F, to 100% stocks, back to 100% G, all in one month. Or 100% stocks to 100% F, to 100% G, etc. I just have not been thinking of this otion and it would have been ideal this summer.

I was going to post a chart too, but I see nnuut beat me to it. Short-term a little over extended. Long term in the middle of a big bullish channel.

 

[Frixxxx]

Group whats your thoughts on the F fund. I saw alot of posts saying get out on monday...but the fund is doing good. Any relationship to the fanny may thing? I just cant find any outlooks on where the F fund is trending. Thanks for any info....G

The fund sheet prety much lets you know how the F-Fund is calculated in the bond and securities market. Bonds, historically, have been "safe-havens" for money when the markets go down.

returns comparatively since July 28, 2008:
G------F-----C-----S------- I
$0.06---$0.31---$0.43----$0.40-----$-1.62
0.45%--2.55%--3.06%---2.27%--- -7.69%

As for indicators, the Lehman Brothers (US) Aggregate is the Index to watch. But Yield prices are also an indicator as well. If the index has bad bonds, they try to adjust the holdings to get better rates of interest. Just like any loan, as a bond matures, more of its' worth belongs to the holder of the bond and there is little being made off of it interest wise. These are also affected buy the US$ against the global economy.

Hope this serves as a primer for you to do some more research.

nnuts chart is a valuable indicator as well. If you think it will beat its' 101.88, then holding is not a bad option and less of a rollercoaster than the infamous CSI funds.

 

[Frixxxx]

...We can take a 100% G allocation, to 100% F, to 100% stocks, back to 100% G, all in one month. Or 100% stocks to 100% F, to 100% G, etc. I just have not been thinking of this option and it would have been ideal this summer....

Hindsight :toung:

 

[NHFrosty]

I can't make sense of a +0.44% day for AGG but less than a penny gain in the F fund posted by TSP. Have a small stake in F and expected a decent day when I saw the .44% AGG gain.

 

[JTH]

Join the club, it's not the first time I've been burned exiting F... Sometimes AGG just doesn't track well with F.

 

[poolman]

I can't make sense of a +0.44% day for AGG but less than a penny gain in the F fund posted by TSP. Have a small stake in F and expected a decent day when I saw the .44% AGG gain.

I don't get it either. Same thing happen'd yesterday. According to my calculation's yesterday should have been flat but we got 10 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

I can't make sense of a +0.44% day for AGG but less than a penny gain in the F fund posted by TSP. Have a small stake in F and expected a decent day when I saw the .44% AGG gain.

Join the club, it's not the first time I've been burned exiting F... Sometimes AGG just doesn't track well with F.

I don't get it either. Same thing happen'd yesterday. According to my calculation's yesterday should have been flat but we got 10 cents.

Hi Poolman,

Your calculations were correct. Yesterday, either the huge change in yields messed up their calculations or they did a big FV. What is strange is that if you use yesterday's high(yields) minus the close, you get roughly 10 cents. Let's see if there is FVC in the F fund tomorrow.

Or maybe the F fund has changed and we need to change our calculations.:nuts:

 

[poolman]

Hi Poolman,

Your calculations were correct. Yesterday, either the huge change in yields messed up their calculations or they did a big FV. What is strange is that if you use yesterday's high(yields) minus the close, you get roughly 10 cents. Let's see if there is FVC in the F fund tomorrow.

Or maybe the F fund has changed and we need to change our calculations.:nuts:

Hey 350Z,

Nice to hear from you. I read about your Golfing. Sound's good. More relaxing than the market's right now. :cheesy:

I hear you on me being right with my calculation. It probably was a Big FV. Hopefully calculations will get a little more normal soon. I can't stand not being accurate. Hope to see you around just a little more. :nuts:

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey 350Z,

Nice to hear from you. I read about your Golfing. Sound's good. More relaxing than the market's right now. :cheesy:

I hear you on me being right with my calculation. It probably was a Big FV. Hopefully calculations will get a little more normal soon. I can't stand not being accurate. Hope to see you around just a little more. :nuts:

Oh, I'll be around more for sure. 1-2 more months and it'll start to get too cold for golf.

 

[Braveheart]

Oh, I'll be around more for sure. 1-2 more months and it'll start to get too cold for golf.

The F Fund is the place to be now with Freddie & Fannie. If I get back to 1267 in the C Fund my next IFT will be 100% F Fund and me arse wil be parked there for a long long time. 3.35 yield next stop that is 30 ticks away.

 

[350zCommTech]

Something is rotten in F fund land. The huge drop in bond yields today suggest an 8-9 cent gain, but the AGG is only showing a 1 cent gain.

If the F fund only makes a penny or two tonight, it'll mean that the F fund is now a very scary place to be.:worried:

 

[350zCommTech]

Something is rotten in F fund land. The huge drop in bond yields today suggest an 8-9 cent gain, but the AGG is only showing a 1 cent gain.

If the F fund only makes a penny or two tonight, it'll mean that the F fund is now a very scary place to be.:worried:

According to bond yields, the F fund should be up 11-12 cents tonight, but the AGG only show it up 3 cents.

Hmmm......:suspicious:

 

[Minnow]

According to bond yields, the F fund should be up 11-12 cents tonight, but the AGG only show it up 3 cents.

Hmmm......:suspicious:

Well, isn't the TspTalk chart the iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond? Their computers aren't allowed to go over what their stock is worth now.

 

[350zCommTech]

Well, isn't the TspTalk chart the iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond? Their computers aren't allowed to go over what their stock is worth now.

LOL!!!!!!:laugh:

How did I miss that???

 

[Braveheart]

BARCLAYS IS PUSHING YIELDS UP ON 10 YEAR NOTE ----- That is why the F Fund is all over the place. What a friggin conflict of interest they know how much we have in the F Fund and all the L Funds, WTF that is gambling against us and inside trading at it's best.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNCksVzJxRZA

Dealers Pare Treasuries, Signaling Fed Turning Point (Update1)

By Daniel Kruger
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- One word popped into Charles Comiskey's head as he watched investors seeking a haven from credit-market losses pile into Treasuries in March: ``Ridiculous.''
The buying spree pushed yields to a five-year low even though rising commodity prices and a depreciating dollar were beginning to spark inflation. The co-head of Treasury trading at HSBC Securities USA Inc. has so far been proven right. U.S. government debt has lost 2.8 percent since March 17, including reinvested interest, according to New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.
``Rates got ridiculous,'' said Comiskey, who is based in New York and started trading in 1989.
The U.S. units of London-based HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc of London, Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt and the other 17 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve have compiled a $101.4 billion bet against Treasuries, data compiled by the central bank show. That's the most since the week ended Nov. 14, just before yields on 10-year notes climbed half a percentage point over the following month.
Dealers have used any demand ``as an opportunity to move Treasuries off their balance sheets,'' Comiskey said.
The $101.4 billion represents the amount of Treasuries that dealers are using to hedge other positions and is up from $58.3 billion in the week ended March 12, Fed data show. The more they use to hedge, the bigger the wager against Treasuries.

Anyone think Barclays really wanted LEH to stand that entire bid was a fraud they would make more money if the US markets crashed and Lehman Failed - they just made Billions today on the backs of America!!!