Exnavyew's Account Talk

[exnavyew]

Trump backing off a bit on April tariff threat?

Trump says tariffs coming in April will ‘probably be more lenient than reciprocal’​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/26/tru...probably-be-more-lenient-than-reciprocal.html

 

[exnavyew]

Time to party likes it's 1929?
Or time to go bargain hunting?

Labor market pessimism hits highest since 2009 as Americans sour on economic outlook
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labo...icans-sour-on-economic-outlook-142411222.html

How the rollout of Trump's reciprocal tariffs could become an 'absolute nightmare' at US ports
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-...absolute-nightmare-at-us-ports-080042120.html

 

[exnavyew]

FWIW:

Odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks that come after April 2 is extremely high: Fundstrat's Tom Lee​

 

[exnavyew]

Tom Lee seems to think we're at or close to a 'relative bottom'.
Also, he still feels Bitcoin will hit 150K(!!??) by end of 2025.
IMHO Tom Lee is a bit of a permabull so as always Caveat Emptor.

Markets could have the 'right pieces' for a bottom this week, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee​

Odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks that come after April 2 is extremely high: Fundstrat's Tom Lee​

 

[exnavyew]

Trump is knowingly steering the economy off the cliff with tariffs​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-knowingly-steering-economy-off-191948283.html

 

[exnavyew]

If I'm hearing this 'talking head' correctly at the end of the video he likes
Europe, Japan and emerging markets ex-China.
Sounds a lot like the I-fund.

 

[FAAM]

Trump is knowingly steering the economy off the cliff with tariffs​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-knowingly-steering-economy-off-191948283.html

Good article - cogent & prescient - though it is happening as we speak, and a lot (of bad, long term, impactive) things and events have already happened - like watching a live huge wreck (train, freeway cars and trucks, container ship, airliner... take your pick) happening live with now way for us as individuals to do anything but cringe, scream, or both.
... I read the next article presented to me on Yahoo-Finance.... was about USA males who are of working age but have given up for varied reasons and are not employed and not looking for work -- a surprisingly large percentage... it was good too.

 

[exnavyew]

Don't have a clue what's gonna happen April 2 and thereafter but trimmed my
brokerage positions about 25% 'just in case'.
TSP money still 100% G-fund awaiting further developments.
There's a line from the movie 'Three Days of the Condor' where John Houseman's character
(a CIA senior executive in a 'sub-agency' within the CIA)
is asked if he missed the 'action' from the 'old days' and he says no, I miss that kind of clarity.
I can totally relate ala the current stock market.

https://clip.cafe/three-days-of-the-condor-1975/i-go-further-back-than-that/

 

[exnavyew]

Good article - cogent & prescient - though it is happening as we speak, and a lot (of bad, long term, impactive) things and events have already happened - like watching a live huge wreck (train, freeway cars and trucks, container ship, airliner... take your pick) happening live with now way for us as individuals to do anything but cringe, scream, or both.
... I read the next article presented to me on Yahoo-Finance.... was about USA males who are of working age but have given up for varied reasons and are not employed and not looking for work -- a surprisingly large percentage... it was good too.

I thought it was a 'thoughtful' article as well. Will be interesting to see what summer/fall sentiment will be
after several more months of Trump 2.0.

 

[exnavyew]

IMHO nobody wins if we end up having a global trade war.
Nobody.

[Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told reporters at the Capitol that he wants to bring down all tariffs to level the playing field, an idea backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce but one that is anathema to many of Trump’s closest advisers.

“I’m talking about zero tariffs,” Kennedy said. “Zero tariffs on American goods to Japan. Zero tariffs on Japanese goods to the United States of America. Let the companies compete. What’s wrong with that?”

Kennedy insisted he agreed with Trump’s logic but lacked his expressed patience.

“In the long run, [it] will probably work,” he said of Trump’s decision to impose large trade barriers. “The problem is that in the long run we’re all dead, and so the short run matters.”]

‘In the long run, we’re all dead’: Trump allies struggle with trade uncertainty​

https://www.yahoo.com/news/long-run-dead-trump-allies-193917182.html

 

[exnavyew]

Just FYI:

Forbes Recession Tracker: Recession Odds Spike As Trump’s Tariff ‘Liberation Day’ Approaches​

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereks...e-as-trumps-tariff-liberation-day-approaches/

Europe warns Trump: We have ‘a strong plan’ for retaliation against tariffs​

https://www.yahoo.com/news/europe-warns-trump-strong-plan-112527311.html

 

[exnavyew]

Noticed that TESLA was topping the Most Active list which I found curious
(it's usually around the 4th position) but
then I ran across this story which seems to account for it.


Tesla stock pops after report Musk will step back from government role 'in the coming weeks'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...nment-role-in-the-coming-weeks-133800376.html

 

[exnavyew]

Well this is grim. Time to buy gold?

In a new episode of Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (see video above), Berezin doubled down on his recent call that there is a 75% chance of a US recession this year. In a new wrinkle shared with me, Berezin believes the US may already be in a mild recession.

Economist: Trump tariffs could send the S&P 500 to 4,450 and the economy into recession​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...and-the-economy-into-recession-140326769.html