Exnavyew's Account Talk

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Tom Lee seems to think we're at or close to a 'relative bottom'.
Also, he still feels Bitcoin will hit 150K(!!??) by end of 2025.
IMHO Tom Lee is a bit of a permabull so as always Caveat Emptor.

Markets could have the 'right pieces' for a bottom this week, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee​



Odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks that come after April 2 is extremely high: Fundstrat's Tom Lee​

 
If I'm hearing this 'talking head' correctly at the end of the video he likes
Europe, Japan and emerging markets ex-China.
Sounds a lot like the I-fund. :unsure:

 
exnavyew said:

Trump is knowingly steering the economy off the cliff with tariffs​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-knowingly-steering-economy-off-191948283.html
Click to expand...
Good article - cogent & prescient - though it is happening as we speak, and a lot (of bad, long term, impactive) things and events have already happened - like watching a live huge wreck (train, freeway cars and trucks, container ship, airliner... take your pick) happening live with now way for us as individuals to do anything but cringe, scream, or both.
... I read the next article presented to me on Yahoo-Finance.... was about USA males who are of working age but have given up for varied reasons and are not employed and not looking for work -- a surprisingly large percentage... it was good too.
 
Don't have a clue what's gonna happen April 2 and thereafter but trimmed my
brokerage positions about 25% 'just in case'.
TSP money still 100% G-fund awaiting further developments.
There's a line from the movie 'Three Days of the Condor' where John Houseman's character
(a CIA senior executive in a 'sub-agency' within the CIA)
is asked if he missed the 'action' from the 'old days' and he says no, I miss that kind of clarity.
I can totally relate ala the current stock market.

https://clip.cafe/three-days-of-the-condor-1975/i-go-further-back-than-that/
 
FAAM said:
Good article - cogent & prescient - though it is happening as we speak, and a lot (of bad, long term, impactive) things and events have already happened - like watching a live huge wreck (train, freeway cars and trucks, container ship, airliner... take your pick) happening live with now way for us as individuals to do anything but cringe, scream, or both.
... I read the next article presented to me on Yahoo-Finance.... was about USA males who are of working age but have given up for varied reasons and are not employed and not looking for work -- a surprisingly large percentage... it was good too.
Click to expand...
I thought it was a 'thoughtful' article as well. Will be interesting to see what summer/fall sentiment will be
after several more months of Trump 2.0.
 
IMHO nobody wins if we end up having a global trade war.
Nobody.

[Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told reporters at the Capitol that he wants to bring down all tariffs to level the playing field, an idea backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce but one that is anathema to many of Trump’s closest advisers.

“I’m talking about zero tariffs,” Kennedy said. “Zero tariffs on American goods to Japan. Zero tariffs on Japanese goods to the United States of America. Let the companies compete. What’s wrong with that?”

Kennedy insisted he agreed with Trump’s logic but lacked his expressed patience.

“In the long run, [it] will probably work,” he said of Trump’s decision to impose large trade barriers. “The problem is that in the long run we’re all dead, and so the short run matters.”]

‘In the long run, we’re all dead’: Trump allies struggle with trade uncertainty​

https://www.yahoo.com/news/long-run-dead-trump-allies-193917182.html
 
Well this is grim. Time to buy gold? :eek:

In a new episode of Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (see video above), Berezin doubled down on his recent call that there is a 75% chance of a US recession this year. In a new wrinkle shared with me, Berezin believes the US may already be in a mild recession.

Economist: Trump tariffs could send the S&P 500 to 4,450 and the economy into recession​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...and-the-economy-into-recession-140326769.html
 
exnavyew said:
Well this is grim. Time to buy gold? :eek:

In a new episode of Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (see video above), Berezin doubled down on his recent call that there is a 75% chance of a US recession this year. In a new wrinkle shared with me, Berezin believes the US may already be in a mild recession.

Economist: Trump tariffs could send the S&P 500 to 4,450 and the economy into recession​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...and-the-economy-into-recession-140326769.html
Click to expand...
Well, looks like Trump is determined to start a trade war.
He has de-facto created his own Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 which btw worsened the Great Depression.
100% in the G-fund until further developments.
Glad I trimmed my brokerage account yesterday, only wish I had trimmed it even more.

An upside is quality stocks are now 'on sale'!!

Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act​

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act
 
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exnavyew said:
Well, looks like Trump is determined to start a trade war.
He has de-facto created his own Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 which btw worsened the Great Depression.
100% in the G-fund until further developments.
Glad I trimmed my brokerage account yesterday, only wish I had trimmed it even more.

An upside is quality stocks are now 'on sale'!!

Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act​

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act
Click to expand...
Interesting, & thx for posting the link. I wasn't familiar w/that 1929-30 Tariffs Act & results. Yes - history shows that Act was "stupid"... wow. Well, my digressionary investments are somewhat 'TRIMMED' too and I've been in 100% G with my TSP for over a week now -- so yes 'whew'.
 
One upside to a day like today is that you can buy quality companies at a big discount!
I'm going shopping!! :banana:
 
exnavyew said:
One upside to a day like today is that you can buy quality companies at a big discount!
I'm going shopping!! :banana:
Click to expand...
Top gainer is...Goodyear Tire? color me puzzled. Tires are up but Ford is down? um, ok.
Got some CEG.
Don't know squat about charts but even before today's 'pullback' it looked
like a setup for a rebound.
As always time will tell. ;)
 
The CEG chart would not be very good if it got below below that red line. But valuation wise... maybe. That's the part I don't know. :)

tsp-040325c.gif
 
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