Exnavyew's Account Talk

[exnavyew]

Bitcoin's breakout is a precursor for equities through year-end, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee​

 

[exnavyew]

November jobs report expected to show hiring rebound, unemployment hold steady at 4.1%​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...unemployment-hold-steady-at-41-191057270.html

 

[Whipsaw]

Is that good news? Good news that is bad news? Bad news.... etc.?

 

[tsptalk]

I believe the market has embraced fewer rate cuts coming, so good news is probably good news again.

 

[exnavyew]

The S-fund loss on Mon was almost twice that of the Russell 2000.
Usually the S-fund is more moderate in it's movements compared to the Russell 2000.
Que pasa sports fans?

Inflation reports this week may rock looming Fed interest-rate cut decision​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/2-big-inflation-reports-may-124735171.html

 

[tsptalk]

I think the KRE regional banks was part of the drag on the S-fund on Monday. It was down 1.62% on the day.

 

[exnavyew]

I think the KRE regional banks was part of the drag on the S-fund on Monday. It was down 1.62% on the day.

Hmmm, Crowdstrike down 3.3%, Snowflake down 1.57%, Workday UP 5.06%, Marvel down 5.71%, Block down 2.88%,
APO down 3.03%, LNG down 3.44%, FERG up 0.37%, TEAM down 1.92%.
Profit taking maybe?

 

[exnavyew]

Well, do I keep my hand in the fire hoping the rest of Dec helps me break even or better
or do I cut my losses now?
Guess I'll give it a day or two more and see what happens.

 

[exnavyew]

Good start but already fading.
4pm will tell the tale.
That said gonna re-allocate and hope Santa saves the day!

 

[exnavyew]

 

[exnavyew]

Tom Lee predicts SP500 at 7000 by mid 2025 BUT finishing 2025 at 6600!?

 

[exnavyew]

Tom Lee predicts SP500 to hit 7000 in mid 2025 BUT to finish the year at 6600.

One of Wall Street's biggest bulls sees the S&P 500 soaring 16% early next year before a sharp sell-off in the 2nd half​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-wall-streets-biggest-bulls-033533074.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink

Also, seemed like the dollar dropped after hours:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UUP/

DXY:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/

but maybe not?:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/cur...bets-aussie-rises-after-jobs-data-2024-12-12/

 

[exnavyew]

Just FYI:

S&P 500’s Record Rally Shows Cracks as Most Stocks Left Out​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-record-rally-shows-174703388.html

Note and strictly FYI/FWIW: Tom Nash's personal portfolio is 40% SP500, 40% Palantir, 20% Tesla.

 

[tsptalk]

That argument has kept a lot of investors (and money managers) on the sidelines the last couple of years, especially with small caps lagging so badly. Now they are scrambling to catch up and need a correction. Just a theory.

I would say it's unlikely that a correction comes this year, and maybe not in January based on historical averages for "normal" years, post high return years like 2024, and post election years. But I'd be worried about February.

 

[exnavyew]

That argument has kept a lot of investors (and money managers) on the sidelines the last couple of years, especially with small caps lagging so badly. Now they are scrambling to catch up and need a correction. Just a theory.

I would say it's unlikely that a correction comes this year, and maybe not in January based on historical averages for "normal" years, post high return years like 2024, and post election years. But I'd be worried about February.

Thanks for your viewpoint! Much appreciated!
I'm really interested in how the market will react to Trump's actual policies.
Tariffs, DOGE, etc. etc.
Note: added a Tom Nash video below about Tom Lee's forecast for 2025.
Cmon Santa, giddyup!

 

[exnavyew]

 

[exnavyew]

Just FYI:
Good luck to all in 2025!!

Here's a complete rundown of Wall Street's 2025 stock market predictions​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-complete-rundown-wall-streets-221924566.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink

 

[exnavyew]

Bitcoin surges above $106,000 on strategic reserve hopes​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/bitcoin-powers-above-105-000-234316402.html

 

[exnavyew]

Forgot Beethoven's birthday yesterday:

 

[exnavyew]

Yikes!
Something wicked this way comes?

Dow tumbles more than 260 points for 9-day losing streak, its longest since 1978: Live updates​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/stock-market-today-live-updates.html